Kiev is preparing for a major operation against Russian forces in a few weeks. The scale of this reaction could mark a turning point in the conflict.
The defense before the answer. A little over a year after the start of the Russian invasion, the front line between Kiev and Moscow appears to have frozen. The Ukrainian army is in a defensive position and continues to oppose the Russian advance at Bachmout, the epicenter of the fighting. “We need to buy time to gather reserves and launch a counteroffensive, which is not far away,” said the commander of Ukraine’s land forces on Saturday, March 11.
Ukraine’s defense minister assured on February 24, the first anniversary of the war, that the country was “working hard” on this operation, the location or places of which are not yet known. “We will strike harder and from a greater distance, in the air, on land, at sea and in cyberspace,” said Oleksiï Reznikov. Franceinfo takes stock of the funds used by Kiev.
By training its troops abroad
Since the end of 2022, thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been trained in NATO countries. You will learn how to use the military equipment provided by the West (armored vehicles, rockets, rocket launchers, anti-aircraft systems…). You will also be introduced to mine clearance, tactical operations, anti-aircraft defense and war medicine.
In mid-March, around 55 soldiers in Spain completed a month’s training in the use of Leopard 2 tanks supplied or promised by the Allies. According to Spanish authorities, they were trained 12 hours a day, six days a week at a military base in Zaragoza. “The goal of Westerners is to help Ukraine to definitely win the war,” Mathieu Boulègue, adviser on the Russia and Eurasia program at think tank Chatham House, told franceinfo.
“If the allies give Vladimir Putin the opportunity to freeze the conflict in the current conditions, then in two, three, four years he will come back with the same intentions…”
Mathieu Boulègue, specialist in defense issues in Russia and Eurasia
at franceinfo
According to the New York Times*, which spoke to American officers, Washington has also organized simulation games in Germany to help Kiev prepare for its future offensives. These tabletop exercises involving cards are called “war games” in military jargon. They aim to assess the risks and benefits of the different strategies considered by Ukraine. Could Kiev attack in the east, in the Donbass? Or break through to the south? No one knows at the moment which option will be chosen. In January, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told the Washington Post* that a “realistic” goal for Ukrainians this year was to “break the land bridge” with Crimea.
By requesting additional resources from his allies
“You will not see that we start a counter-offensive as long as we consider our weapons and ammunition insufficient,” warned Olga Stefanichyna, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister, in an interview with the Sunday newspaper (article for subscribers) on March 12. In Bakhmout in particular, the Russians cut several key supply routes for Ukrainian soldiers, and the Ukrainian leader acknowledged that “resisting and deterring is becoming complicated.”
Ukraine is indeed lacking in resources. Kupol, a Ukrainian lieutenant colonel who was hit by the Washington Post, reports a serious shortage of ammunition, bombs, grenades and grenades. “They are on the front lines. They come at you and you have nothing to shoot,” he testifies. Soldiers must ration their ammunition.
Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO, admitted that Ukraine’s ammunition consumption is much higher than the production rate of the allied countries’ industrialists. The latter have tended to scale back their production in recent years and are finding it difficult to keep up with the pace set by Russia. Ditto for the armies: After three decades of budget cuts, “all European armed forces have had to reduce their stocks to the strict minimum,” summarizes Léo Péria-Peigné, researcher at the French Institute of International, in a report (PDF) .
Westerners have promised Kiev new tanks, “but it will take time to deliver them,” geopolitical analyst Ulrich Bounat reminds franceinfo. “Specifically, each belligerent’s ability to deploy enough ammunition will determine the outcome of the war,” he adds. The European Union “will ensure” that its production of ammunition for Ukraine, made by “fifteen manufacturers in eleven countries” of the EU, is increased, EU Industry Commissioner Thierry Breton said on Monday.
By positioning its forces in strategic places
To date, most of the fighting takes place in Bakhmout. Although many observers question the strategic importance of this battle, it has acquired symbolic value for both Ukraine and Russia. “Ukraine does not use all means there to keep attacking potential elsewhere, but at the expense of exhausting their teams, who endure very tough fights,” said Ulrich Bounat. The other combat areas are on the north-eastern front between Koupyansk and Kreminna. On the eastern front around Avdiivka and a little further south around Marinka and Vuhledar.
Ukraine has not announced its plans for a response, but “the bulk of the operation is expected in the south,” Ulrich Bounat suspects. “The area has only been occupied by the Russians for a year. It’s an area of very partisan activity, where the population is ready to rise up,” he explains. It would also isolate Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. “In the Donbass, a counterattack is very difficult because the line has been very well defended by both sides for nine years.”
“Trench warfare as it currently exists can only be unlocked if there is a breakthrough.”
Mathieu Boulégue
at franceinfo
“Ukraine will wait until Moscow moves to know exactly how to position itself,” said Mathieu Boulègue. “It could either be a massive counter-offensive in the Donbass to drive out the Russians, or break through to the south through Kherson.”
By taking care of the morale of the troops
Faced with an answer, Ukrainian leaders are multiplying optimistic messages to motivate a population exhausted from long months of war. “We are able to put an end to Russian aggression this year,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on the first anniversary of the conflict. Military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov has claimed Crimea could even be Ukrainian again “this summer,” the Washington Post quotes as saying.
In Bakhmout, where the soldiers fight with limited resources, “the army chief of staff travels very often to boost the morale of the troops,” notes Ulrich Bounat. In early March, the publication of the execution of the soldier Oleksandr Matsiyevsky, who fought alongside the Ukrainians, allowed Kiev to emphasize the patriotic character of its population. On social networks, its silhouette alone is an anti-invasion slogan.
The authorities have also launched lighter initiatives. On social media, for example, they launched a #FreeTheLeopards challenge, named after the tanks claimed by Ukraine, which Germany hesitated to send for a while. The populace were encouraged to wear leopard print clothing to put pressure on their supply.
*These links point to content in English.