Wagner’s mercenaries are dealing with a strong Ukrainian defense and can only advance one house at a time, Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a video shot in late December.
“Everyone asks the question: when are you taking Bakhmout?” Evgueni Prigojine, head of the private mercenary company Wagner, begins in an interview with the RIA Novosti press agency. According to him, his fighters would storm every house in “Artyomovsk (the Russian name of Bakhmout, ed.)”, i.e. many “fortresses” preventing military advance.
“This morning we took a house and broke through the Ukrainian defenses. And there’s always a new defense behind that house, and not just one,” he adds. “How many such lines of defense are there in Artemovsk? If we say 500, we’re probably not wrong,” he says.
Wagner’s mercenaries complain to their boss about a “lack of vehicles, BMP-3s (an armored personnel carrier with ten soldiers, editor’s note) and 100 mm grenades to be able to advance more quickly in Artjomovsk”. The Russian army, in particular the group of Wagner mercenaries, has been trying unsuccessfully to take the city since May 17. British intelligence estimated in its January 3 letter that Wagner and the Russian army had “increased the frequency of their infantry attacks around the town of Bachmout in Donetsk Oblast in mid-December, but these were poorly supported”.
In addition, the Ukrainian army has deployed “significant reinforcements over the past ten days” to defend the area. “Russia is unlikely to make a significant breakthrough near Bakhmout in the coming weeks,” the UK MoD concluded.
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A limited strategic interest
However, the almost completely destroyed city does not offer any particular strategic interest. “It’s a marketing coup for the Kremlin looking to afford a win. Possession of Bakhmout, destroyed by months of shelling, will not bring anything significant, because Russians will encounter heights and new Ukrainian defense lines towards Kramatorsk,” notes Cédric Mas.
In addition, the progression proves to be difficult. Equal numbers of fighters on both sides, despite the arrival of reinforcements from Kherson since his surrender, but also effective entrenchments are eligible. “In the Donbass, the lines have been fortified since 2015, which explains the rather slow progress in this area,” says Thibault Fouillet. The Russians are also encountering a tactical blockade: “It’s a logic where fire is superior to movement,” he agrees. “The defense is superior to the attack and the stopping fire is very effective,” continues Cédric Mas. The attacker tried to advance after the bombardment, but ran into the enemy, whose artillery prevented his breakthrough.
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These costly battles involving lives also allow both sides to “lock” the opposing troops at a certain point. Thus, the Russian reinforcements from Kherson cannot be used for another offensive, on the contrary, the Ukrainians cannot redeploy their soldiers to another front or give them rest. For several weeks, several pro-Russian accounts have been openly concerned about a Ukrainian breakthrough around Zaporizhia to Melitopol. And Crimea.
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