Key US intelligence knew as early as October 2021 that an invasion of Ukraine was a possibility. That is why they failed to convince Europe or even Ukraine of this attack.
As early as October 2021, the United States knew all about the Russian invasion plan for Ukraine. However, they failed to convince their allies or even the Ukrainians of the possibility of the attack, the Washington Post revealed in an investigation published Tuesday, August 16.
Gathering satellite photos, communications intercepted in Russia, and human intelligence, the file was fairly complete. At the time, large troop movements toward Ukraine and the stockpiling of ammunition, food, and other resources needed for an invasion signaled to the Americans that an attack was imminent, even though they didn’t know the exact day of its launch. The country is therefore pounding on its allies that “all parts are ready for a massive attack,” reports La Libre.
Russia’s plan is also detailed: Originally, the country planned to take advantage of the winter and favorable weather to take Kyiv in a scintillating manner in three or four days at most. Volodymyr Zelenskyy was also to be replaced by a puppet paid for by the Kremlin.
Allies’ skepticism
The American secret services therefore warned very early on that a major plan was being developed that was more ambitious than the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The American secret services called important meetings as early as October.
By the end of October, however, Joe Biden had leaked some sensitive information to his closest allies: France, Germany and the United Kingdom. Then, in mid-November, Avril Haines, the first woman to head US national intelligence, spoke to NATO members to provide elements of intelligence. “But only the British and the Baltic countries were ready to react and arm Ukraine,” a source told the Washington Post.
France and Germany refused to believe that Russia could invade a country as large as Ukraine with 80,000 to 90,000 troops. Confidence in the US secret service had crumbled after the catastrophes of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. For their part, the Americans are working to withhold information, fearing that those elements would be intercepted by the Russians or even trigger a rushed attack on Ukraine that would have escalated the conflict.
Vladimir Putin will finally unleash his attack on Ukraine in February 2022, proving his thirst for conquest before the eyes of the world.