War in Ukraine: in Robotyne a battle worthy of “1915 or 1916”

For several weeks now, the eyes of military specialists have been on Robotyne, this Ukrainian village halfway between Zaporizhzhia and the Sea of ​​Azov.

A Ukrainian tactical success

In fact, at the end of August, Ukrainian troops opened a breach in the first Russian defense line near this town of 500 people. Since then, the lead has grown and Russia’s second line of defense is close, if unfamiliar.

“The Ukrainians have driven a real wedge into the Russian defense” summarizes Thibault Fouillet, research associate at the Foundation for Strategic Research. “And this wedge is wide and compacted enough to withstand Russian tactical counterattacks.” In other words, Kiev’s forces are now firmly anchored in the center of Russian lines.

The Robotyne Sector, as of September 30, 2023. | INFOGRAPHY WEST FRANCE View in full screen mode

The Robotyne Sector, as of September 30, 2023. | INFOGRAPHY WEST FRANCE

At the beginning of October, the Ukrainian armed forces are still trying to confirm this tactical advantage, if not actually bring it to fruition.

To this end, the Ukrainian General Staff has committed significant resources to this sector. “In this area of ​​12 by 12 km there is an eighth of the Ukrainian maneuver forces” notes Michel Goya, former naval colonel and military historian.

Progress is measured in hundreds of meters

However, Ukrainians themselves admit that their progress in this sector remains limited. The process does not take place “Not as fast as we thought, not like in the World War II movies,” Oleksandr Tarnavsky, the Ukrainian general in charge of the region, lamented to CNN in late September. “Ukrainian armed forces are having difficulty consolidating their gains” in this sector, confirmed the French Ministry of Defense in its current situation report dated October 2nd. And the ministry concludes that the situation at Robotyne “remains uncertain.”

And for good reason, the advances and retreats that follow one another on one side or the other are measured in hundreds of meters, not kilometers. The battles fought in this sector are indeed like this “Mechanical infantry battles, where we try to advance 100 m in 100 m with massive use of artillery,” summarizes Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of Défense Nationale magazine.

“Currently, neither the enemy nor we are deploying large formations such as companies, battalions or brigades.” Ukrainian General Oleksandr Tarnavsky said this at the end of September. “We deploy assault teams, groups of 10 to 15 men.”

It looks like the Battle of the Somme

— Michel Goya, military historian

These significant engagements, these artillery duels and these infantry attacks that resulted in minimal advances, are symptomatic of battles that today amount to a war of attrition. A diagram reminiscent of another for Jérôme Pellistrandi: “We find ourselves in a situation similar to that of 1915 or 1916 in France, with a front line where everyone is striving to wear down the enemy as much as possible.”

“It looks like the Battle of the Somme in 1916” states Michel Goya. “It is a battle with an advance aimed at proceeding methodically and slowly, facing the Germans who are on the defensive and further strengthening as the Allies advance.”

A Ukrainian soldier in a trench in the Kharkiv region, July 2022. Illustrative photo. | ANATOLII STEPANOV / AFP ARCHIVE View in full screen mode

A Ukrainian soldier in a trench in the Kharkiv region, July 2022. Illustrative photo. | ANATOLII STEPANOV / AFP ARCHIVE

A crucial sector

If the fighting in Robotyne is so intense, it is partly because the Russians know they must defend with all their might this crucial sector where the Ukrainians want to break through. “For the Ukrainians, this lead must allow them to move south and towards the Sea of ​​Azov as quickly as possible to isolate Crimea.” and the Russian troops fighting there, summarizes Jérôme Pellistrandi.

So the Ukrainians have to do that “Extend the salient, pass the nearest Russian lines and enter open ground,” continues Thibault Fouillet. It’s actually just that “Free country” (a terrain without fortifications or natural obstacles) that the Ukrainians can use massively armored vehicles to penetrate in depth.

The Russian reaction corresponds to the danger

— Guillaume Ancel, former artillery officer

Such a breakthrough would represent a significant operational success for them, as it would make the rest of their operations significantly less laborious. Over time, this hypothetical breakthrough would actually pose a problem for the Russians “Problems with supplies, changing troops or sending reinforcements”, explains Thibault Fouillet. In short, enough to weaken an entire part of the Russian system, and this is not the least bit symbolic.

The Russians “fill in the gaps”

As former officer Guillaume Ancel notes in his blog, the Russian reaction is “at eye level” what danger this scenario poses. “The remnants of their elite units (particularly paratrooper regiments) are being sent to fill the gaps or, more precisely, to try to push the Ukrainians back.” outside their defensive line.

A Ukrainian armored vehicle near Kiev in September 2023. Illustrative photo. | GENYA SAVILOV / AFP View in full screen mode

A Ukrainian armored vehicle near Kiev in September 2023. Illustrative photo. | GENYA SAVILOV / AFP

A success of magnitude that one can hardly imagine in the short term

The Ukrainians, for their part, must advance trench by trench at all costs in order to penetrate beyond the Russian defense lines and penetrate deep into the enemy system.

But given the fierce battles still taking place over Robotyne, “It is very unlikely that the Ukrainians will be able to reach the Sea of ​​Azov in the coming weeks,” confirms Jérôme Pellistrandi. Progress in this sector would at least give them hope of doing so in a few months.