- By Frank Gardner
- BBC Verify
47 minutes ago
Image source: Getty Images
Ukraine’s generals say they have “broken through” Russia’s first line of defense in the south.
We assessed how far the Ukrainian armed forces have really advanced and what signs there are of further breakthroughs on the front.
Ukraine launched its major counteroffensive in early June to push Russian forces back from areas they had captured. It attacked at three points along the 600-mile (965 km) front line.
The area southeast of the city of Zaporizhia is by far the most strategically important.
A push in this direction toward the Sea of Azov, if successful, could cut off Russia’s supply lines connecting the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don with Crimea.
There hasn’t been much progress on this front, with the exception of the area around the villages of Robotyne and Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia region, which is highlighted in purple on the map above.
If Ukraine can sever this main supply route, Russia will find it nearly impossible to maintain its massive garrison in Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.
Despite significant obstacles, there are now confirmed sightings of Ukrainian troops breaching Russia’s defensive structures along the southern front.
We reviewed nine social media videos along the front line near Verbove.
Four of the videos show Ukrainian forces breaking through Russian defenses north of Verbowe.
However, these show incursions, but not that Ukraine has succeeded in taking control of the area.
So far only Ukrainian infantry has gotten through, and we see no Ukrainian tank columns streaming through, exploiting the gap and holding the captured ground.
What is stopping Ukraine from moving forward faster?
This is what they look like from space: rows of interlocking obstacles, trenches, bunkers and minefields, each under fire from artillery.
Huge minefields have slowed the Ukrainian advance.
These minefields are densely developed; in some places there are up to five mines per square meter.
Ukraine’s first attempt to storm through it quickly failed in June as its modern Western-supplied armor was damaged and burning. The Ukrainian infantry also failed and suffered terrible losses.
Since then, Kiev has had to clear these mines on foot, often at night and sometimes under fire. Hence the slow progress so far.
video caption,
Ukraine: First British Challenger 2 tank destroyed
Only when a sufficiently wide path through the minefields is clear and the Russian artillery there is under control can they advance in large numbers.
What’s next for Ukraine’s counteroffensive?
“The problem that Ukrainians have now,” says Dr. Marina Miron, of the war studies department at King’s College London, “is to create an opening large enough to allow more troops in.”
Meanwhile, Russia has sent reinforcements, and this front is dynamic, it is moving, and Russia could still undo Ukraine’s successes.
We have geolocated Russian drone video that supports reports that Ukraine’s elite air force, the VDV, is stationed near the town of Verbowe – a move aimed at filling any gaps left by Ukraine’s counteroffensive are.
“Ukrainian armed forces continue to face resistance from Russian forces on the battlefield,” said Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia analyst at London-based think tank RUSI.
“In addition to artillery fire, drone strikes and Russian defenses, Russian forces also make extensive use of electronic warfare measures aimed at hindering Ukrainian signals and the use of drones.”
Ukraine is barely more than 10% of the way to the coast, but the reality is much more nuanced.
image description,
Ukrainian troops near the village of Robotyne on the Southern Front
Russian forces are exhausted and possibly demoralized after three months of intense attacks, including long-range attacks on their supply lines.
If Ukraine can break through remaining Russian defenses and advance to the city of Tokmak, it would put Russia’s rail and road supply routes to Crimea within range of its artillery.
If they succeed, this counteroffensive can be considered a qualified success.
It may not end the war, which is likely to drag on well into 2024 and perhaps longer – but it would seriously undermine Moscow’s war effort and put Ukraine in a strong position to begin peace talks.
But the clock is ticking for Kyiv. The rainy season will arrive in a few weeks, turning the roads into mud and hampering further progress.
There is also uncertainty over the US presidential election, where a Republican victory could result in US military support to Ukraine being drastically reduced.
President Putin knows that he has to hold out until then. The Ukrainians know that they must make this counteroffensive a success.
Reporting by Jake Horton, Paul Brown, Benedict Garman, Daniele Palumbo, Olga Robinson.
Graphics by Tural Ahmedzade, Mark Bryson, Erwan Rivault.