OSCAR DEL POZO / AFP
Ukrainian soldiers practice tank maneuvers on German-made Leopard 2 tanks at the Spanish army training center in San Gregorio in Zaragoza in early March 2023.
WAR IN UKRAINE – The status quo on the front lines may soon come to an end. The arrival of spring in Ukraine should logically enable the first real Ukrainian counter-offensive of 2023, well supported by military equipment supplied by the West.
For several weeks, a Ukrainian refrain has persisted on the subject of a counteroffensive to regain ground from Russian forces. Furthermore, Ukraine claims it will “exploit very soon” Russian exhaustion found in Bakhmout; City has become the scene of the longest and deadliest battle since the outbreak of war.
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The Russian offensive there will “largely come to a standstill”. While Moscow claims to hold three quarters of the city after eight months of confrontation. For its part, the Ukrainian army claims to have “stabilized” the situation there since March 25, hinting at the next phase of the war in Ukraine: a counteroffensive in the spring. Where and when remains to be seen.
A trained and equipped army
Thanks to support from the West, Kiev is happy to finally have the long-awaited state-of-the-art equipment. This tweet, posted on March 27 by Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, showcasing the vehicles delivered over the past few days, was accompanied by a clear message: “The best vehicles for the best soldiers. In advance ! “.
They arrived! Strykers and Cougars from 🇺🇲, Challengers from 🇬🇧, Marders from 🇩🇪 have officially joined the A… https://t.co/YxcPoFEChb
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU)
British Challenger 2 tanks, German Marder and Leopard 2 infantry fighting vehicles, French AMX-10 R “light” tanks or even American Stryker troop carriers give Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s army considerable leeway to, after an equivalent winter, one or more Conduct offensives of attrition at the front.
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This was prepared by months of training in warfare techniques and training by the Allies to quickly master this advanced equipment. Enough to make Russia jealous, which is facing supply and supply problems, to the point where it has to resort to 1940s-era tanks.
BEN BIRCHALL / AFP
On February 22, Ukrainian soldiers pose in front of an FV 4034 Challenger 2 tank at a British Army base where they received training in the use of these armored vehicles.
Ukrainian soldiers are already back in the country with flight lessons and training from France, Germany or the United Kingdom, the British Ministry of Defense announced on Monday, March 27. In addition, more shipments of military equipment are expected in the coming weeks, particularly from France, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced on Monday.
The sense of an imminent counter-offensive is reinforced by Le Monde’s emphasis on intelligence operations in Ukraine’s favor by Western allies. However, Ukraine seems to be in less of a hurry than it appears.
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No precipitation
Michel Goya, historian and former naval colonel, assures France 24 that the strength of a Ukrainian counter-offensive rests on the commitment to “carry out major offensives” to break through the front line, such as the victories “in September in the Kharkiv province or those of Kherson”. . For this Ukraine will have to rely on “a large concentration of resources” and “forces in a certain area”.
The army of Kiev seems more likely to follow the advice of the French expert, trying to accumulate a maximum of reserves (human and military) in order not to rush into battle head-on. It must be said that the Kremlin forces, even exhausted and logistically limited, remain numerous at the front.
“For several months, the Russians have been strengthening their defensive positions. The attack on them will be more complicated than during the counter-offensives of the Ukrainians last year in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, especially because the Russian forces managed to restore some semblance of numerical balance,” comments Léo Péria-Peigné for Le Monde, researcher at the IFRI.
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Michel Goya is also abounding in this sense: “The Russian defense line is perhaps more solid now than it was in September, which means that the Ukrainians would need even more resources”.
Map of the situation in Ukraine on March 31 with the positions of Russian and Ukrainian forces on the front lines.
And among the destinations of Kiev we find primarily Zaporijia and Luhansk regions. Kiev’s ultimate goal is to liberate all areas under Russian control. According to Michel Goya, “For the Ukrainians, the aim is to advance as far as Melitopol (in the Zaporizhia region in the south-east) and Starobilsk (in the Lugansk region in the east). and to hurt the opponent very much”.
But for that, Kiev must be able to regularly renew its troops (subject to fatigue and wear and tear on the front lines), not to mention regular replenishments to ensure continuity of attacks. Experts on this conflict generally agree that a single counteroffensive, even a large one, will not be enough to completely push back the Russian army in Ukraine.
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