The EBRD forecasts that the Russian economy will grow by 1.5% in 2023 despite sanctions
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) estimates that the Russian economy will grow by 1.5% this year, while it had previously expected a contraction of the same magnitude.
Moscow’s revenues were supported “by rising oil prices and by Russia’s ability to offset the impact of the cap.” [du prix du baril imposé par les Occidentaux] by exporting [du pétrole] According to the EBRD, particularly in China and India.
“In our last forecasts, we assumed that sanctions – in particular the cap on oil prices – would limit Russian activities more effectively,” the institution continues in a statement to the France-Presse agency.
In addition, “activity remained robust – in particular household consumption and public spending related to the ongoing conflict – and GDP figures in the second quarter were surprisingly strong,” adds the EBRD, which, however, says it will do so afterwards a slowdown expected.
For Ukraine, however, the institute continues to expect growth of 1% this year and 3% next year. “This reflects very negative one-year growth compared to January and February last year,” notes the EBRD before the Russian invasion, but which expects a recovery with improved energy supplies.
Also read: “Russia has strengthened its war economy and adapted to sanctions”
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Overall, the economies of the countries where the EBRD is present are expected to experience a slump Growth of 2.4%while in May growth was forecast at 2.2%, thanks in particular to the economies of Central Asian countries benefiting from the sanctions imposed on Russia.
The GDP of these countries is expected to increase by 5.7% this year, due in particular to the relocation of Russian companies to their territory or the increase in imports from the EU, part of which will then be re-exported to Russia, according to the EBRD.
The migration of workers from Central Asia to Russia, particularly to compensate for the outflow of part of the working-age population, also stimulates the growth of these areas because they send money back to their countries of origin.