NARRATIVE – Ukraine hailed an airstrike that “destroyed” a Crimea-based landing craft by broadcasting striking images of an explosion. Moscow admitted that one of its buildings was “damaged.”
Is the Russian Navy losing its supremacy in the Black Sea? In any case, “it’s just shrinking,” said Ukrainian Air Force commander Mykola Oleshchuk. While Moscow boasted of having captured the city of Marinka in the east of the country on land, Kiev announced that it had once again destroyed a ship from the Russian fleet in Crimea. Ukrainian President Volydmyr Zelensky thanked the work of his armed forces “for the impressive addition of a new ship to the Russian submarine fleet in the Black Sea,” he quipped. Even though the Ukrainian Navy, which has few patrol boats, has been reduced to zero since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, Russian naval forces, beleaguered by drones and missiles, have suffered setbacks in recent months in the Battle of the Black Sea.
This time, the Ukrainian Air Force said on Tuesday that it had destroyed “the large landing ship Novocherkassk,” which was stationed in the port city of Feodosia, a key port on the Crimean peninsula, 100 kilometers west of the Kerch Bridge and 150 east of the major Russian naval base of Sevastopol. According to Kiev, the ship was suspected of carrying Iranian drones on board, which Russia is using in the war against Ukraine. “People say he wore shaheeds,” the Air Force said. However, according to her, the operation was carried out in the middle of the night at around 2:30 a.m. by “tactical aviation” using cruise missiles. Mykola Olechchouk welcomed the operation and shared a video on Telegram showing a large explosion.
However, according to her, the operation was carried out in the middle of the night at around 2:30 a.m. by “tactical aviation” using cruise missiles. Mykola Olechchouk welcomed the operation and shared a video on Telegram showing a large explosion.
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The Novocherkassk ship was actually damaged during the night, Moscow admitted, according to the Russian news agency Interfax. During the attack, Russian anti-aircraft forces shot down two Ukrainian Su-24 aircraft, Russian authorities also claimed. President Vladimir Putin was informed by his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu about “damage” to the large landing ship Novocherkassk, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the press.
Loaded with rockets
The head of the Republic of Crimea, Sergei Aksionov, said the Ukrainian attack left one dead and two injured and damaged six buildings. “The port sector is cordoned off,” the Russian official said on Telegram, assuring that “the detonation has ended” and that “the fire has been contained.”
This attack is a new snub to the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which is certainly modest in absolute numbers, but on paper is completely superior to Kiev's and reduced to almost nothing. Especially at the operational level, the likely destruction of Novocherkassk poses a serious challenge for Moscow. Although old (1987), this military transport ship, like its Ropucha-class sister ships, plays an important logistical role in supplying Russian forces in Ukraine, especially since the Land routes are exposed to Ukrainian fire. The Kerch Bridge, which connects the Crimean peninsula in the strait of the same name with Russia and has already been attacked several times and even slightly damaged, is a particularly valuable but endangered asset for Moscow.
However, since the beginning of the war, the Russian amphibious fleet has been hit hardest by Ukrainian attacks. The Russian Navy currently has 13 Ropucha (including the Novocherkassk), 3 even older Alligators and only 2 Ivan Gren, both more modern and imposing. But this fleet has been suffering from severe wear and tear since February 24, 2022. In addition to the Novocherkaask, three Ropucha were damaged in various attacks in almost two years of war. Minsk in particular was hit heavily by Ukrainian cruise missiles in Sevastopol on September 13th. It is far from certain that it will ever be able to return to sea, and even if it were, repairs would take at least many months.
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In particular, Russia's naval repair capacities in the Black Sea, which were already modest before the war, are also affected by the Ukrainian attacks, which makes the matter all the more sensitive for Moscow. An Alligator, the Saratov, was also destroyed in the port of Berdyansk by a Ukrainian Tochka-U missile early in the war, on March 24, 2022, increasing the number of large Russian landing ships hit or destroyed by the Ukrainians .
Coincidentally, last week before the attack, Vladimir Putin announced the construction of seven new large Ivan Gren-M landing ships, a heavily modernized version – including a large space for helicopters – of the two Ivan Grens currently stationed off the coast of Ukraine. Two Ivan Gren-Ms are already under construction in Saint Petersburg and are scheduled to be launched in 2024. Since 2020, Russia has also been building two Ivan Rogov helicopter carriers at the Zaliv Crimean Shipyard in Kerch, Crimea.
Risk of a capacity gap
These are the first Russian aircraft carriers to be laid down since the fall of the USSR. They are intended to replace the two French Mistrals, whose sales were canceled in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea by Paris. But their construction is also at risk due to the war in Ukraine. On November 4, 2023, this shipyard in the Black Sea was the target of a Ukrainian missile attack. And even if Russian air defense manages to fend off the threat long enough, these 15 newer ships or those under construction will not be completed before 2035, explains on X Russian naval specialist Benjamin Gravisse, author of the specialist blog Red Samovar. In the relatively short term, there is therefore a risk that the Russian Navy will suffer a loss of capability if its amphibious fleet continues to suffer such attrition.
In comparison, the rest of the Russian Navy in the Pontic Basin appears to be less threatened, despite the increase in Ukrainian drone and missile attacks. The flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the cruiser Moskva, was sent to the bottom by a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missile in April 2022. The symbolic shock was terrible, as it was an imposing ship with a displacement of 12,000 tons (compared to the Novocherkassk's 2,200 to 4,000 tons). But operationally, this Slava-class cruiser, commissioned in 1982, was largely obsolete. There was no comprehensive modernization lasting several years, which would have made little sense at a military level given the age of 40 years! – it should have been withdrawn from active service shortly, except to serve as a simple standard for Moscow's prestige and naval diplomacy.
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However, the main combat ships of the Black Sea Fleet – three of Admiral Grigorovich's frigates – have so far been spared. As of February 2022, the two main losses are those of a Kilo-M-class diesel-electric attack submarine, the Rostov-on-Don, which entered service in 2014, and a Karakurt-class light corvette, the Askold, which was completing its sea trials before starting work. These two ships were both equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, whose range of more than 2,000 kilometers allows the Russians to attack the entire Ukrainian territory. This loss is certainly significant, but at the moment Moscow has no shortage of rocket launchers. Since 2022, five more missile corvettes have entered service with the Russian Navy (including two in the Black Sea). Several dozen ships and submarines are also under construction in various Russian shipyards, most of them far from the Ukrainian battlefield.
On December 25, Vladimir Putin inaugurated a Gorshkov frigate in the Northern Fleet, the most modern class of ships Russia has. Of course, the Ukrainians continue to exert strong pressure on the Russian Navy to this day, but the attrition they impose on the Russians is less than Moscow's ability to increase its naval forces, except perhaps in the amphibious sector, where the situation becomes particularly worrying for the Russians.
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