Both Russia and Ukraine emphasize the other side’s losses – they remain silent about their own: because the war is also fought on information, and the number of casualties has become part of the information war. But there are also other reasons why there are no reliable facts on the “fog of war”: Independent reports from contested areas are hard to come by.
Norwegian chief of staff Eirik Kristoffersen recently drew attention in an interview with Norwegian broadcaster TV2. He said nearly 180,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded so far. More than 100,000 troops are believed to be dead or wounded on the Ukrainian side, he said. In addition, 30,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed so far. He did not say which sources the numbers were based on.
Ukraine publishes numbers daily
Either way, this data is significantly higher than most other estimates. The British tabloid alone recently reported 188,000 Russians dead or wounded – also with vague descriptions from its sources. She quoted US Army General Mark Milley as saying casualties would now be “well over 100,000” – without giving an exact figure. By November, Milley had called the 100,000 number for both sides.
The Ukrainian military publishes new figures every day on how many Russian soldiers have been disabled – and a whole host of other data from military equipment intended to document enemy losses. The current figure is around 123,000 “liquidated” Russian troops – a number that all observers believe was deliberately inflated for propaganda purposes.
These are indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses on January 25, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/BkFoFu2N1t
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) January 25, 2023
How many dead, how many injured?
Furthermore, no distinction is made between dead and wounded. At the end of November, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, also came across this error when talking about 100,000 dead in the Ukrainian army – and had to correct herself after much anger in Kyiv.
Military experts have different assumptions about what the ratio of dead to wounded could be on the two dates that are circulating. Based on previous wars, the ratio is assumed to be three to one, i.e. three wounded for every person killed. One of the deciding factors is how well medical care for the wounded works – and opinions differ on this. Some experts say the ratio is two to one, others more like four or five to one.
little reliable information
How many Russian soldiers actually died is unclear: Russia itself kept silent. In September, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu spoke of 5,937 killed in his own ranks. But that was long before the costly battles for Bachmut and Soledar. In addition, poorly trained recruits were deployed after partial mobilization in the fall. And Wagner’s mercenaries sent Russian prisoners to war. Military experts often spoke of the inhumane practice of sending “cannon fodder” to the front lines.
Of the 50,000 conscripts recruited from Russian prisons for the war in Ukraine, civil rights activists estimate that only 10,000 are still in the troops. “The rest are dead, wounded, missing, surrendered or abandoned, including to Russia with weapons in their hands,” said the non-governmental organization (NGO) “Rus Sidyashchaia (“Russia behind bars”) on Monday in its Telegram channel com It is not known where the NGO got the information.
APA/AFP/Arden Arkman Funeral in Samara, Russia: Many soldiers from the region died in an attack on a Russian neighborhood
hard count
Russian news site Mediasona, which operates in exile in Lithuania, is combing through local media and social media along with Russian service BBS to identify dead Russian soldiers. Until the end of this Wednesday afternoon, there were 11,662 dead so far – but he highlights that it is far from being possible To all the dead. The number of missing people is completely in the dark. The Dupuy Institute, a private US military research facility, estimates that around 16,000 to 19,000 Russians were killed and between 64,000 and 76,000 were wounded.
Ukrainian losses as a state secret
The losses of the Ukrainian side are not clear. In early December, government circles gave vague statements that between 10,000 and 13,000 servicemen had been killed. The Dupuy Institute estimates 13,500 to 16,500 killed and between 54,000 and 66,000 wounded in Ukraine – plus an estimated 6,000 in Russian captivity.
US military expert Douglas Macgregor recently spoke of 122,000 dead and 33,000 missing Ukrainian troops – a number that is likely politically motivated and does not withstand any fact-checking. Macgregor was an adviser to former US President Donald Trump and is controversial because of his pro-Russian stance.
The more accurate the count, the greater the number of unreported cases.
One of the best sources of conflict sources is the American non-profit organization ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project), which collects and processes data on conflicts around the world. According to the ACLED census, the war has claimed around 30,000 lives since the Russian attack on Ukraine. Here it is also emphasized that only cases where the information is secure are recorded – the number of unreported cases is correspondingly high. It is difficult to get information, especially from areas that are still disputed.
Portal/Clodagh Kilcoyne The struggling town of Bachmut had about 74,000 residents. It is now considered completely destroyed.
The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), which counts civilian casualties from the war, argues similarly: more than 7,000 civilians have been killed so far. “The majority of recorded civilian casualties were caused by the use of explosive weapons with long-range effects,” the statement said in mid-January. These included heavy artillery, multiple rocket launchers, rockets and air strikes. A total of 7,031 civilian deaths have been confirmed, but the actual number is likely “considerably higher”.
Tens of thousands dead in Mariupol alone?
The Ukrainian government recently said that 9,000 civilians were killed. Among them are 453 children, the president’s chief of staff Andryj Jermak said in Davos. But here, too, the number is supposed to be much higher. Because the direct and indirect consequences of war, such as the lack of basic needs and widespread failures in medical care, are not taken into account.
And from some places, the number of victims is still unclear. Hardly anyone can estimate how many people died during the spring siege of Mariupol. The UN speaks of “thousands”, Ukrainian authorities recently estimated the number at at least 25,000 – other estimates put the number of casualties more than double.