This accusation comes days after Moscow failed to honor its pledge to respect Moldova’s territorial integrity.
By Eloi Passot
Published 2/24/2023 at 9:52 AM, updated 2/24/2023 at 9:52 AM
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Honor guard in Tiraspol, Transnistria February 23, 2023. VLADISLAV BACHEV/ Portal
The fire of the war in Ukraine is stoking the embers of the conflict in Transnistria. On Thursday, February 23, a year after the start of Russia’s “military operation” in Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry on its Telegram channel accused “the Kiev regime” of instigating “an armed provocation against the Moldavian Dniester Republic.” [la Transnistrie, NDLR] in the near future”. The Kremlin claims that a “staged attack (…) from the Transnistrian region” by “units of the Ukrainian armed forces, including the nationalist Azov regiment”, disguised as Russian military personnel, “will serve as a pretext for the invasion The Russian ministry claims to be “ready to respond to any change in the situation.” A few days earlier, Vladimir Putin repealed the decree by which Russia expressly recognizes Moldova’s territorial integrity.
“The state authorities do not confirm the information released this morning by the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Moldovan government responded. We call for calm.” For Florent Parmentier, associate researcher at the HEC Geopolitics Center and author of Moldavia at the crossroads of the worlds (Éditions Non Lieu, 2019, with Josette Durrieu), the statements made by the Russian Defense Ministry are more like war propaganda. “While the war on the Russian border is raging, Ukraine’s priority is certainly not solving the Transnistria problem,” analyzes the researcher, who sees these allegations as an attempt by the Kremlin to “destabilize Moldova in order to prevent it.” getting too close to westerners”. .
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Putin’s repeal of the 2012 decree containing a section on Transnistria, in which Russia pledged to respect Moldova’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, is “more concerning” for the researcher. This decree also developed a more global vision of Russian foreign policy, which included Moscow’s rapprochement with the European Union and the United States. “This is how Russia got out of the negotiations that ruled Transnistria for thirty years,” Florent Parmentier points out.
The war in Ukraine reactivates the conflict
Thus, if the hypothesis of a short- or medium-term conflict in Transnistria seems to be ruled out, the increase in tensions in the region is undeniable. “These tensions are almost unprecedented in the last thirty years,” analyzes the researcher. Since the July 1992 accords granting autonomy to Transnistria, where Moscow maintains some 1,500 armed soldiers, there has not been a single death, not a stray bullet. But Moldova is now the scene of recurring incidents, collateral damage from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, reactivating local tensions. From March 2022, strikes have been directed against the separatist authorities of Transnistria and the radio antennas broadcasting Russian programs. Tensions have flared up again, especially in the last few weeks. On February 10, the Moldovan government summoned the Russian ambassador after a Russian cruise missile launched from the Black Sea overran Moldovan airspace just 35 kilometers from the Romanian border before striking Ukraine.
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Three days later, based on documents intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence, Moldovan President Miai Sandu claims that Moscow is fomenting a coup in Moldova with the aim of installing a pro-Russian government in Chisinau. Maia Sandu announces a draft law to strengthen national security and refers to plans for “hostage-taking” and Russian “saboteurs” “disguised in civilian clothes” with the help of “internal forces” such as the party of pro-Russian oligarchs Ilan Sor. The next day, despite the Kremlin’s denial, Moldova even closed its airspace for several hours, citing security reasons. New stage on February 16: During a session in Moldova’s parliament, Prime Minister Dorin Recean infuriated the Kremlin by asserting that it is “important to continue our efforts to get Russian troops out of Transnistria”. Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, then advised the Moldovan authorities, in a threatening tone to say the least, to be “extremely careful.”
“If Moldova asks, Ukraine will take Transnistria in 3 days”
For their part, statements by Ukrainian officials do little to reflect a desire for détente. In an interview granted to the German newspaper Welt on February 20, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy assures that if “Maia Sandu never asked me for help, (…) Ukraine will always be ready to help Moldova help”. In a much more provocative tone, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s former presidential aide Oleksiy Arestovych bluntly claimed in an interview with the Odessa Journal that “if Moldova asks Ukraine, then Ukrainian forces will take Transnistria in 3 days”.
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Moldova is a former Soviet republic. After their independence, after the fall of the USSR, war broke out with Transnistria, a predominantly Slavic-speaking eastern region that was also striving for independence. Autonomy was finally granted to the region under Moscow’s rule, which stationed 1,500 soldiers there, responsible in particular for guarding one of the largest ammunition dumps in Europe. Moldova is neither a member of the European Union, although it is a candidate country, nor a member of NATO.
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