These conscripts could be used in a series of spring and summer offensives in the south and east of the country, warns Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence.
Russia, which suffered several tactical setbacks before the winter, is preparing to mobilize 500,000 new conscripts in January, Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, said, according to The Guardian. These would be used in a series of spring and summer offensives in the east and south of the country, he added. Vladimir Putin had already ordered the mobilization of 300,000 conscripts at the end of September, bringing the total number of Russian soldiers in Ukraine to almost 500,000 people. Above all, they would be “used to multiply the defense lines in the illegally occupied areas (…) and not as combatants,” explained Hervé Bléjean, the European Union’s chief of staff, before the deputies of the National Defense Committee meeting behind closed doors on November 16.
In an interview with the BBC at the end of December, Kyrylo Buodanov, head of the main news department, also stated that a new wave of mobilizations was planned for January 5. “You must start a new wave of mobilization, even considering that the past mobilization that should have ended has not stopped. People are being mobilized in full swing,” he continued.
A “useless” wave
However, Vladimir Putin had classified a new wave of mobilization as “useless”. But the Moscow Times revealed on December 23 that the already heavily censored media had been ordered not to report on a new mobilization. “Before that, we could write about the current mobilization and about possible scenarios and forecasts. Now all forecasts are stopped. requirement [des autorités] says that it is impossible to talk about it, even if the statement was made by a deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation or a senator, ”the Moscow Times source says.
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If a new wave of mobilization were ordered, the question of the equipment and training of the soldiers would arise. “Russia could mobilize, that’s for sure, but what kind of troops? We must already assimilate the 300,000 mobilized in September, then the question of a new mobilization could arise”, Nuance with Le Figaro, Thibault Fouillet, associated researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. “I don’t think the mobilization will change the situation. This is not a sufficient increase in manpower to change the balance of power. In the beginning the Russians were four against one, today they are a little more than one against one. The quality of the Russian army, unlike the Ukrainian army, has been declining for a year,” said General Michel Yakovleff, former SHAPE Deputy Chief of Staff at NATO.
Ukraine, for its part, wants to “set up three new army corps by March 2023 for an estimated volume of 75,000 men” in order “to be able to take the initiative in action next spring”. “This very ambitious goal is practically equivalent to the size of the French army’s ground forces,” Hervé Bléjean had compared. Frosts that hit several regions of Ukraine late last week could allow operations to resume.
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