Vladimir Putin’s troops have enough food, fuel and ammunition for another three days of fighting in Ukraine, Kiev generals said today, as attacks on the besieged city of Mariupol were repulsed and advances elsewhere in the country stalled.
Logistical disruptions to Russian forces, including their inability to set up a fuel line to supply troops at the front, have left them facing the imminent prospect of attrition, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said in its morning update.
Meanwhile, British intelligence said Moscow’s attempts to seize the southern city of Mariupol, seen by Putin as a key target for claiming any semblance of success in his “special military operation”, “continue to fight back” amid heavy fighting.
The defense ministry added that offensive operations in other parts of the country, such as the cities of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv, “have experienced another day of limited progress, with most forces largely stalled.”
Ukraine’s assessment is in line with other Western experts who have predicted that Russian forces are likely to reach a “climax” this week, a point at which stockpiles built up for initial attacks run out, forcing Russia to halt its offensive and go on the defensive while awaiting reinforcements. arrive.
Taking an “operational pause” would leave Russian troops vulnerable to counterattacks from Ukrainian forces, which today said they had recaptured the town of Makarov on the outskirts of Kyiv, seizing a key highway in the process and allowing them to block Russian forces. troops surrounded the city from the northwest.
But this does not mean that Putin’s army has failed or that a ceasefire is imminent. Evidence from the battlefield so far shows that Russia’s tactics are likely to become more brutal and bloody the longer its forces remain stranded. Western leaders, including Joe Biden, have warned of the risk of Russia using biological or chemical weapons because Putin “has his back to the wall.”
The Russian invasion has driven more than 10 million people from their homes, according to the United Nations, equaling the population of Portugal and nearly a quarter of Ukraine’s pre-war population.
The UN confirmed the deaths of more than 900 civilians, but said the real losses were likely much higher. Estimates of the deaths of the Russian military vary, but even according to the most conservative estimates, they number in the few thousands.
In addition to the horrendous loss of life, the war has shaken global security consensus since the end of the Cold War and has repeatedly raised fears that it could trigger a nuclear accident.
The Minister of Natural Resources of Ukraine said that forest fires near the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in northern Ukraine have been extinguished, and radiation levels in the area are within normal limits.
Fires in the area are not uncommon, but there are concerns about the possible release of radiation from an explosion and fire at the plant in 1986.
Safety concerns have been raised at the decommissioned plant, as it was taken over by Russian forces last month. Power was temporarily cut off due to fighting earlier this month, and on Monday Ukraine’s nuclear regulatory agency said radiation monitors around the plant had stopped working.
Faced with unexpectedly strong resistance, the forces of Russian President Vladimir Putin are increasingly concentrating their aircraft and artillery on Ukrainian cities and the civilian population living there.
US and UK officials say Kyiv remains Russia’s top target. The bulk of Moscow’s forces remain miles from the centre, but rockets and artillery have destroyed apartment buildings and a large shopping center that has been reduced to smoking ruins after eight people were shot at late Sunday night.
A senior U.S. Defense Department spokesman, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the military’s assessment, said Russia had increased the number of sorties in the past two days to 300 in 24 hours and fired more than 1,100 missiles into U.S. soil. Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion.
US President Joe Biden, who is heading to Europe at the end of the week to meet with allies, suggested on Monday evening that the worst could be yet to come.
“Putin has his back to the wall,” Biden said. “He did not foresee the extent or strength of our unity. And the more his back is pressed against the wall, the more severe the tactics he can use.
Biden repeated accusations that Putin is considering using chemical or biological weapons, although Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Tuesday the United States saw no evidence that the use of such weapons was “imminent.”
As Russian troops try to pin down Kyiv, ceasefire talks continue via video link but fail to bridge the gap between the two sides. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Ukrainian television late on Monday that he was ready to consider Ukraine’s rejection of any bid to join NATO — Russia’s key demand — in exchange for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Russian troops and guarantees for Ukraine’s security.
Zelenskiy also suggested that Kyiv would be open to future discussions about the status of Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014, and areas of eastern Donbas held by pro-Russian separatists. But he said that is a topic for another time.
As part of a series of appeals to foreign legislatures to win Ukraine’s support, Zelenskiy on Tuesday addressed Italian lawmakers, telling them that the besieged port of Mariupol had been completely destroyed by the Russian onslaught. He also spoke to Pope Francis.
“Imagine Genoa completely burned down,” he told enthusiastic deputies, referring to an Italian port city of the same size. Mariupol officials said on March 15 that at least 2,300 people died in the siege, and they have not reported this since. Zelenskiy said 117 children have died in the war so far.
Some people managed to escape from Mariupol, where several weeks of Russian bombing cut off electricity, water and food, and cut off communications with the outside world. On Tuesday, the city council said more than 1,100 people who fled the besieged city were on their way in a bus convoy to another city in northwest Mariupol.
But the Red Cross said a relief convoy trying to reach the city with badly needed supplies still couldn’t get in.
Located on the Sea of Azov, Mariupol is an important port for Ukraine and is located in a stretch of territory between Russia and Crimea. As such, it is a key target that has been under siege for over three weeks and has endured some of the worst suffering of the war.
It’s unclear how close his capture might be. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that their forces were still defending the city and had destroyed a Russian patrol boat and an electronic warfare complex. The UK Ministry of Defense said its intelligence showed “Ukrainian forces continue to repel Russian attempts to occupy” the city.
Those who got out of Mariupol spoke about the destroyed city.
“There are no more buildings there,” said Maria Fedorova, 77, who crossed the border into Poland on Monday after five days of travel.
A long line of cars stood on the road in Bezymyenny, east of Mariupol, as residents sought refuge in a makeshift camp set up by pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk region.
The woman, who identified herself as Yuliya, said she and her family sought refuge in Bezymenny after an explosion destroyed six houses behind her home.
“Therefore, at our own peril and risk, we got into the car and left after 15 minutes, because everything was destroyed there, corpses were lying around,” she said.
In total, more than 8,000 people fled through humanitarian corridors to safer areas on Monday, including about 3,000 from Mariupol, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said.
In total, more than 3.5 million people fled from Ukraine, another 6.5 million were displaced within the country.
Matthew Saltmarsh, spokesman for the UN refugee agency, called the speed and scale of people fleeing danger in Ukraine “unprecedented in recent times.”