by Stefano Montefiori, correspondent from Paris
The Russian economist, who fled to Paris in 2013 after publicly opposing Putin, comments on the international situation
When the famous economist Sergei Guriev fled to Paris in May 2013, the escape from Russia caused a stir. Today he is watching events in the hope of one day returning to Moscow.
Do you want to remember why you live in Paris and teach at Sciences Po?
In Moscow I headed the New Economic School. In 2012, I publicly spoke out in favor of modernizing Russia, but Putin decided to push the country in a different direction. Three factors led me into exile: my public statements; my support for opponent Alexei Navalny; my judgment as an independent expert in the Iukos affair (he claimed the innocence of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, editor’s note). Interrogations, searches, various pressures began. In 2013 I bought a one-way ticket to Paris.
Have you felt controlled by the Russian authorities in recent years? He is afraid?
In Paris I had some problems, but at least not physical ones. After the 2015 attacks, Parisians responded by saying that changing their lifestyle would mean surrendering to the terrorists. Likewise, I try to live without thinking too much about Putin.
In Spin Dictators, co-written with Daniel Treisman, out now in the US and forthcoming in Europe, you analyze the figure of the Spin Dictators, who rule with propaganda and a semblance of freedom. Sometimes they turn into dictators of fear, they go about ruling with terror. Putin one of these?
In 2014, Putin could still try to pose as a spin dictator, like Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore or Chávez in Venezuela. But the war in Ukraine was a massacre, the repression at home was very harsh, the transformation into an obvious fear dictator.
What do you think of western sanctions?
Those in oil and gas will be decisive. Otherwise, Europe gives Putin 700 million euros every day.
And the ones that have been approved so far?
They were very helpful. This year Russia’s gross domestic product will collapse, there will be a 10 or 11% recession, I’m not saying that the sanctions that have been decided so far are irrelevant, quite the contrary. But a matter of speed and timing: the sooner we introduce sanctions on oil and gas, the sooner the war will be over.
As an economist who has lived in Europe for almost ten years, do you think that European countries can afford that?
The measures that have been decided so far have had almost no consequences for the Europeans. Some big companies have lost some money, but nothing irreparable. The next sanctions will have significant, but not catastrophic, costs. I think like Mario Draghi.
This means?
He talked about choosing between air conditioning or rest, and then explained what he meant in an interview with Corriere. Of course, urging Russia to stop the war comes at a cost. But a few degrees of temperature is a more or less sustainable cost for European societies.
Do you think China and India could replace Westerners as Russia’s trading partners and thwart our efforts?
I do not think so. China should be careful not to violate American sanctions as it could be hit by very harsh secondary sanctions, such as those previously hit on bank BNP Paribas, which violated the US embargo on Cuba, Iran and Sudan. And I don’t think many Indian companies are willing to start sourcing supplies from Russia. By then the current gas pipeline between Russia and China will already be full, and another one is to be built or ships deployed. Except that most ships are owned by western companies and insured in the west. The US and Europe can do a lot of harm to Putin.
Do you believe in a collapse of the regime in Moscow?
Not immediately, but a matter of time. The invasion of Ukraine reduced the regime’s life expectancy. Total control today. But one day Putin may not have the money to pay the soldiers or police who are in charge of the repression.
April 30, 2022 (Modification April 30, 2022 | 00:58)
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