War in Ukraine the Chinese balance between saying no to

War in Ukraine, the Chinese balance between saying no to sanctions and “hoping for peace”. That’s why Beijing doesn’t approve of the war, but it can’t let Russia emerge from it weakened

After a first abstention, which dates back to March 2nd, the China yes it is again abstained on March 24th when the United Nations General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a resolution sponsored byUkraine who blames that Russia for the humanitarian crisis in the country and calls for a immediate ceasefire, protecting civilians along with homes, schools and hospitals. The nonbinding resolution, which is therefore purely symbolic, received 140 votes in favor with 38 abstentions (including China, India, Pakistan and several countries of the Global South), alone Russia, Belarus, Syria, North Korea and Eritrea they voted against. Previously, China like Russia had one of the South Africa that it raised the humanitarian issue by dodging the issue of Russian aggression and that it did not get enough support to vote.

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The Chinese attitude towards the United Nations is the synthesis of a position that now seems clearly defined and that of the President Xi Jinping he spelled it out in his video call Joe Biden on the 18th of March. The Beijing communiqué states: “China has presented an initiative six points on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine and stands ready to provide further humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and other affected countries. All sides should jointly support the dialogue and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and negotiate results and peace. the United States and the Born They should also engage in dialogue with Russia to solve the core of the Ukraine crisis and solve the security problems of both Russia and Ukraine. In summary: China is ready for this provide concrete help on humanitarian issues, it also offers its “good wishes” for Russia and Ukraine to talk to each other (the difference between “good wishes” and “mediation” is contained in the manuals of international law and implies a lesser or greater impact on the part of the third) and finally the United States and NATO (which, by the way, according to China at the source of the problem) should talk to Russia to resolve both the Ukraine crisis and Russian and Ukrainian security concerns.

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Therefore, please note i differently involved that Beijing ready to offer: first a concrete engagement on humanitarian issues, then the “good wishes” (together with the international community, of course) so that the war can be resolved through the RussianUkrainian dialogue, and finally no commitment to put pressure on Russia. Talk to me Putin Indeed, it is the job of the US and NATO, which are the cause of all this chaos and which must therefore guarantee both Russian security and, consequently, that of Ukraine. In the interview with Biden, Xi Jinping would have made that absolutely clear (it takes up a lot of space in the Chinese account). denial of sanctions: “It is the ordinary people who suffer from allround and indiscriminate sanctions,” the Beijing leader said. “If they were upgraded further, they would trigger a severe crisis in the world economy“.

This line is essentially what is now being repeated by the state media and by Chinese commentators who have also been interviewed by the major Atlantic corporate media such as Gao Zhikai (Victor Gao) on Cnn. The more the US pressures China or tells the world it will pressure China to break away from Russia, to abandon what has been called the neutrality bias towards Russia, the more China will do its own thing. Because? because there is no prudence in the US attitude and because Washington has nothing to offer this time, quite the opposite.

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We are no longer in 1972 than the voyage of nixon in China, it opened a season that lasted at least until the pairingdriven swing to Asia Obama Clinton (Hillary) in the late zero years of the new millennium. In that distant time, Beijing and Washington shared a common enemy, theThe Soviet Union. As part of the rivalry within the Chinese communist camp maoWith the USSR he had also fought a Guerricciola along the USSR border in 1968Amur Heilongjiang and their respective affiliations within the Global South also reflected this contrast: India with the USSR and Pakistan with China, Vietnam proSoviet e Khmer Rouge Cambodians of Maoist inspiration.

Today, China and Russia share a common enemy: the United States. Washington’s containment policy on Beijing is perhaps one of the few dossiers on which there is bipartisan consensus among the US political elite: “Neokon” and “Democratic Imperialists” (I’m from a US realist school analyst like John Mearsheimer) go hand in hand on this foreign policy dossier. China was already disappointed by US economic policy at the time global financial crisis of 2008 and then put to the test by the aggressiveness of donald trump, seems to have lost all illusions, even if he would rather not get caught in the American crosshairs, because the China boom of the last 40 years is based precisely on economic complementarity with the USA. A reporter from Chinese state television summed up US requests to China on Twitter: “Can you help me fight your friend so he can dedicate himself to fighting you?”

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Ultimately, the assessments of the Ukraine conflict in China primarily have to do with the longterm conflict that is emerging: that with the USA. This no doubt mostly official line is still being debated among analysts around the control room. In the last few weeks the article was written by HuWeiDirector of a think tank linked to the State Council (government), who points out how China’s distancing from Putin and active contribution to ending the war will put China back in the role of “responsible power” and it would increase his status in the world. In fact, since the beginning of the conflict, China has said and repeated that it is not at all happy with what is happening in Ukraine. However, an explicitly hostile attitude towards the Russian partner is not only unlikely for economic and strategic reasons.

In a Sinica podcast Chen thingingProfessor of International Relations at Jinan University, says China understands Russian discontent very well the international order designed by Washington because she shares it herself. Beijing believes that the European security system was improperly managed after the end of Cold War hence the shown favor for a possible “European security system” involving the EU and Russia, but without the USA and the current Ukraine conflict derives directly from this unsolved problem. On the other hand, to put a nuclear power against the wall decadent as you like without offering it and everyone a way out is the right thing for Beijing Guarantee for future tragedies.