Ukrainian special forces during the exercise. GENIA SAVILOV
The Institute for the Study of War was able to locate Ukrainian troops controlled by the Russians on the east bank of the river.
Let’s not jump to conclusions. The great Ukrainian “spring counteroffensive” has not yet started. But the very reputable Institute for the Study of War (ISW) was able to locate certain Kiev forces on the east bank of the Dnieper held by the Russians around Kherson (south). It is also based on the words of pro-Russian accounts, such as Telegram channel Rybar. On April 20, Rybar claimed that Ukrainian forces had held “positions” on the east bank for weeks, established stable supply lines to those positions, and “conducted regular sorties in the region”.
For his part, blogger Yury Kotyenok assures that the Ukrainians remain active on the island of Velyki Potemkin and near Oleshky, constantly sending reconnaissance boats and “making their presence felt” on the shore. Also Igor Girkin, former defense minister of the separatist republic of Donetsk, who is in trouble with the Kremlin, reiterated on April 20 that Ukraine has a “small beachhead” on an island in the Dnieper. As a reminder, on November 11, the first Ukrainian elements entered liberated Kherson, the most populous city captured by Russia. The Kremlin army had retreated to the east bank of the Dnieper under the blow of its opponents. Shortly thereafter, the Ukrainian army launched an amphibious operation on the Kinburn Peninsula.
Also readUkrainian counteroffensive: why all eyes are on the Zaporizhia region
If the ISW confirms that positions are well installed on the east bank of the Dnieper, it cannot define “the extent and intention of the Ukrainians.” The topography of this very swampy and humid zone makes it difficult to deploy and keep troops on the coast. Furthermore, the establishment of a beachhead on the east bank of the Dnieper, fiercely defended by the Russians, who were mining much of the coast, would require the deployment of large troops, supported by heavy artillery fire.
“data-script=”https://static.lefigaro.fr/widget-video/short-ttl/video/index.js” >
illusion
Like the Russians, the Ukrainians fear the “spring counter-offensive”. These statements are to be understood in this context. Each adversary conducts “deception operations,” that is, disinformation, to maintain a “fog of war” around their intent. For example, last summer Ukraine, prior to its two victorious offensives, conducted a major operation to give the appearance of an offensive in Kherson to the south, before finally attacking Kharkiv (east), where Russian soldiers had been transferred to reinforce the southern front .
Several directions are mentioned for this new Ukrainian offensive: the Donbass in the east, the area around Zaporijia in the south or Kherson in the south. At the end of March, the Russian occupation authorities spoke of a “sharp increase in intensity” in the fighting in the Zaporizhia region in the center of the country and the arrival of “at least 75,000 Ukrainian soldiers”. Also this Monday, April 24, a naval drone was launched by the Ukrainians towards the naval base in Sevastopol. Always leave a little more doubt about the chosen location for the “spring counteroffensive”.
“data-script=”https://static.lefigaro.fr/widget-video/short-ttl/video/index.js” >