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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended Chinese President Xi Jinping’s timeline to invade Taiwan, according to documents purportedly written by a Russian intelligence analyst in a Moscow intelligence agency.
“Xi Jinping was at least thinking about taking over Taiwan in the fall – he needs his own small victory to get re-elected for a third term – there is a colossal struggle within the elite,” said an agent of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). , the successor to the KGB, allegedly wrote on 9 March. China will hold its 20th Communist Party Congress this fall, and Xi said it would be a “big event.” Analysts predicted that Xi would either be re-elected as the Communist Party’s general secretary or be elected party chairman, a position that had not existed since 1982.
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“Now, after the Ukrainian events, this window of opportunity is closed for him, which gives the US the opportunity to both blackmail Xi and negotiate with competitors on favorable terms,” the FSB agent added. “It was in this case that we triggered a trap mechanism for China with our actions.”
The agent added that the FSB was “seriously considering” the claim that “the battle in Ukraine is a US war against China, in which the Americans simply set us up and used us.”
“A global showdown between the US and China was inevitable,” the agent wrote. “After the war with Ukraine (although I may not use the term “operation” here), the cost of resources in the world, especially energy, has increased. The main victim of such actions is China, which (I can confirm) was given guarantees that everything would end quickly. Therefore, China has behaved tolerantly in the past. But that was before that.”
“China may well give us a tough ultimatum to end the war to stabilize oil prices,” the agent predicted. “If it happens, I don’t want to predict anything – it’s just on the catastrophic event horizon.”
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Hong Kong students and Taiwanese supporters hold slogans during a march in Taipei, Taiwan, Sunday, September 29, 2019. (AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying) #
Vladimir Osechkin, founder of the human rights group Gulagu.net, published the report on his Facebook page last week. He claimed that the document was written by the same FSB agent, and a March 5 report stating that a Russian victory in Ukraine had become virtually impossible.
Hristo Grozev, who works for the Dutch investigative journalism group Bellingcat, tweeted that he showed the March 5 letter to two FSB contacts, one current and one former employee. According to him, they had no doubt that the author was their colleague.
As Russian tanks entered Ukraine, nine Chinese aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defense zone, triggering a broadcast warning from the island nation.
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China could be the main beneficiary of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Steve Gray, a New Jersey congressional candidate and a former FBI special agent who has worked on China and North Korea, told Fox News Digital earlier this month. Gray warned that China was “given an example of what the world’s reaction would look like if they invaded Taiwan.”
PHOTO: Chinese President Xi Jinping shakes hands with US Vice President Joe Biden (left) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing December 4, 2013. (REUTERS/Lintao Zhang/Pool//File Photo)
Russian President Vladimir Putin considers Ukraine part of historical Russia, while Xi considers Taiwan part of China. Yet, the FSB agent suggested, it is this similarity that could give China reason to rethink a potential invasion of Taiwan. The resolve of the Ukrainian people against Russia has reportedly stalled the Kremlin-set timetable for the war, and peace talks are ongoing.
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In October, Biden said the US would defend Taiwan if China attacked. In response, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said, “No one should underestimate the strong determination, resolve and ability of the Chinese people to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity. China has no room for compromise.”