Analysis with Cyrille Bret, researcher at the Delors Institute, geopolitician and teacher at Sciences Po Paris. It presents three possible scenarios for the country’s future over the next year.
What turn can the war take ten months after Russia began invading Ukraine? Cyrille Bret, geopolitics specialist, associate researcher at the Delors Institute and lecturer at Sciences Po Paris, director of the eurasiaprospective.net site, identifies three possible scenarios.
Scenario 1: frozen front and continuation of the war
According to Cyrille Bret, a standstill at the front cannot be ruled out. On the one hand, “the Russian war effort in terms of supplies and human resources has stalled since the summer.”
On the other hand, Kiev’s resources and efforts could be “focused on rebuilding the areas recaptured by Russian troops and on civilian infrastructure (power, water, roads) to allow a pause after the resumption of Kherson” while Russian strikes continue , this cold war and blackout aims in particular to undermine the morale of the Ukrainian population.
This first scenario “assumes constant support for Ukraine from the European Union and the United States”.
And “the stabilization of the front can only last if the Russian authorities manage to pass off the territorial gains in eastern Ukraine as a success”, in order to save face.
“Freezing the front line until mid-2023 is credible but precarious and does not rule out serious operations against the Ukrainian population,” warns Cyrille Bret.
Scenario 2: The collapse of the Russian army
This scenario, which is also conceivable, could result from Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s desire to “extend his advantage after the loss of Kherson and to launch a winter offensive in mid-January”.
According to Cyrille Bret, several factors speak in favor of this. “On the one hand, Ukraine knows that Western support is not unlimited and there is a risk of erosion; on the other hand, the Russian authorities are mobilizing and training additional troops. A rapid offensive would allow Ukrainian troops to make brief Russian preparations to attempt a decisive victory in Donbass. The Russian authorities could no longer hide their defeat,” he explains.
But this strategy implies “the rapid delivery of very important defense equipment to Ukraine and a very strong mobilization capacity”.
This path is the one “that would most quickly lead to negotiations, because the Russian authorities would no longer be able to refuse an agreement in the face of such an obvious setback. The consequence would then be a very tough election campaign, also in Crimea, in winter and spring, for negotiations in summer,” predicts the researcher.
Then two unknowns remained: what would become of Vladimir Putin, weakened by this crushing defeat?
And, on the contrary, could this collapse, accompanied by an attempt to take over Crimea by Ukraine, lead to an escalation on the Russian side, the most extreme scenario envisaged in Midi Libre, by General Pierre de Villiers, former Chief of Staff of the French Armies, December 15: Either the use of chemical or tactical nuclear weapons by Russia or an expansion of the conflict into Russian territory – Ukrainian drones have already entered there several times – or even from a NATO country?
Scenario 3: A war of movements
“Since February 2022, the war has been taking place in multiple dimensions and on multiple territories,” emphasizes Cyrille Bret.
Because “the area of operations stretches for thousands of kilometers, from the Black Sea in the south to the Baltic region in the north; the battlefields are both the great plains of southern Ukraine and the industrial areas in the east and the very large urban areas (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mariupol)” he recalls.
The geopolitician emphasizes that the spectacular setbacks that Moscow suffered in the summer of 2022 can be explained by “the weak adaptability of tactics in the face of a faster and more agile Ukrainian army”.
“It is now quite possible that the new Russian offensive will be launched in preparation in new regions and in new dimensions: for example, amphibious operations conducted from the sea against the coasts, especially in the Odessa region; or even a new offensive against the Kyiv region, especially from the Belarusian territory,” he warns.
Pending the arrival of reinforcements, “the Russian authorities could launch such surprise offensives starting in January.
This third scenario “is the continuation of the course of hostilities according to the same modalities”. According to Cyrille Bret, it is therefore most likely today.
Kremlin demands rejected
Russian forces shelled several towns in eastern and southern Ukraine on Tuesday, including Bakhmout in Donetsk province and Svatove further north. The Russian army, which has suffered a series of setbacks, is now looking to seize Bakhmout, an industrial town of 70,000 that is home to just 10,000 residents, mostly seniors. If the Bakhmout lock breaks, the Russians can advance towards the more important cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Moscow still calls for the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine. These requests must be met “amicably” or Russia will take care of them, Sergey Lavrov, Vladimir Putin’s foreign minister, warned on Tuesday. On Monday evening, the same Lavrov recalled the Kremlin’s conditions for a negotiated settlement of the conflict, in particular the annexation of one-fifth of Russian-held Ukrainian territory to his country. Requirements rejected by Kyiv, which, on the contrary, intends to retake all its territory.