The video was shared widely on social media. On Wednesday, April 20, broadcast on the social network Facebook, we see a Ukrainian commander in uniform Serguiy Volyna calling the international community. “We may be living our last days, even our last hours,” said this besieged officer in Mariupol, southeastern Ukraine. Less than 24 hours after the release of these images, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for the city’s “liberation” with “success” by his troops.
For more than two months, this strategic port, which had a population of almost half a million before the war, has been under constant shelling. However, a nest of resistance remains in the vast Azovstal factory. This industrial site houses several thousand soldiers and civilians in its basements and is now under siege by Russian forces. Could the conquest of the city by Vladimir Putin’s army, which US President Joe Biden has judged as “questionable” for the time being, mark a turning point in this conflict? 20 minutes takes stock.
A coveted spot since the beginning of the conflict
The port of Mariupol on the shore of the Sea of Azov is a key strategic target for the Russian authorities. Its geographic location and economic weight for the Ukrainian government helped make the city a prime target of the conflict. “A large part of the grain produced by Kyiv is exported from Mariupol. Even if the volumes flowing through this port remain lower compared to Odessa, it remains an important location, “explains Carole Grimaud-Potter, professor of geopolitics with specialization in Russia at the University of Montpellier, to 20 minutes. Control of Mariupol would also allow Vladimir Putin to connect Donbass to the south of the already occupied country.
The capture of the city could also change Russia’s military engagement in the region. According to the US Department of Defense, the fall of Mariupol and the end of fighting in the city would allow the release of nearly “12 tactical battalion groups, or about 8,000 troops or more,” the American foreign policy magazine’s website reported on Wednesday. A regrouping, however, must be nuanced with the physical and morale of the troops deployed in Mariupol, which have faced significant resistance from Ukrainian forces for two long months. “If Mariupol finally surrendered, it would not be the end of the war. Total control of Donbass remains a goal of Russian troops,” adds Carole Grimaud-Potter.
A propaganda tool
Beyond strategic and military interest, the fall of Mariupol would have “symbolic” value for Vladimir Putin. “Recaptured by Ukraine after Crimea was annexed, the city is also the birthplace of the Azov Battalion, which has since joined the Ukrainian National Guard. This battalion, which included neo-Nazi elements, is being directly attacked by the Russian authorities. With the capture of Mariupol, it would be a victory for the Kremlin for the supposed denazification of the country,” analyzes the geopolitician. “Capturing this port would be timely for the upcoming May 9 celebrations, a symbolic and historically charged date” for the Russians, she adds.
Conversely, Russian control of the city could have disastrous consequences for the morale of the Ukrainian armed forces. A problem that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is fully aware of. In a message published on April 10, he described Mariupol as “the heart of this war”: “She fights, we fight, we are strong. If she stops fighting, we will have weaker positions.”
Last but not least, passage under the Russian flag from Mariupol would jeopardize countless international and domestic court cases. Since the beginning of the war, several attacks on civilian buildings such as the municipal theater or a children’s hospital have been documented. Russian control of the city could therefore jeopardize the collection of evidence and testimonies needed for the smooth running of this war crimes investigation. “With the fall of Mariupol, we are a step further from the truth,” concludes Carole Grimaud-Potter.