The Ukrainian industrial city, which has been on the front line since 2014, is the scene of fierce fighting. The Russian army has been launching an offensive there for several weeks to capture it.
As winter approached and the Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled, the Russian army launched a surprise attack on October 10 to capture the town of Avdiivka, located about fifteen kilometers north of Donetsk. But in this Donbass region in the east of the country, Moscow’s troops are making slow progress and are encountering strong Ukrainian resistance. Kiev claims to have repelled Russian attacks. Franceinfo takes stock of what we know about this Moscow-led offensive.
Moscow wants to take control
According to the Institute for War Research (ISW), which monitors developments at the front on a daily basis, the Russian army launched a major offensive on October 10th. “Geolocated images (…) confirm that Russian troops advanced southwest, near Sieverne, and northwest of Avdiivka, near Stepove,” ISW analysts assure in their October 11 note.
For former General Dominique Trinquand, an international relations expert interviewed on franceinfo, these two-axis Russian maneuvers aim to encircle the city and its defenders. According to him, the capture of this industrial city would allow the Russians to “eliminate the threat of Ukrainian artillery from Donetsk.” “This is probably Russia’s most important offensive operation since at least January 2023,” the British Ministry of Defense also analyzed in a press release published on X (formerly Twitter) on October 17th.
The city has been controversial since 2014
For Moscow it is also about a symbolic victory. This attack on the city comes after four months of a difficult Ukrainian counteroffensive in the east and south of the country. “The Russian capture of Avdiivka would serve a double narrative, saying: ‘The Ukrainians failed in their counteroffensive, and we succeeded where we failed in 2014,’” explains Dominique Trinquand.
In fact, in 2014, at the start of the Donbass war, pro-Russian separatists briefly took control of Avdiivka with the support of the Kremlin. A few weeks later they were driven out by Ukrainian forces.
Since then, the city, built around a huge coking plant, has been at the forefront. The fighting drove most of the population to emigrate. According to the town hall, only 1,600 residents still live in Avdiivka, compared to 30,000 before the war.
Kyiv defends its positions resolutely
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recognized a delicate situation on Sunday evening. “The areas of Avdiivka and Marinka are particularly difficult. Numerous attacks were carried out by the Russians. But our positions are protected,” he said. Two days earlier, the Ukrainian army claimed to have repelled a new Russian attack. “The enemy has repeated its attacks and is not giving up its attempts to encircle Avdiivka,” the General Staff said on Facebook.
In its October 20 report on front line developments, the Institute for War Research estimated that Russian forces were further consolidating their hold on the city. According to the US-based non-governmental organization, Moscow troops managed to gain ground north of Avdiivka and make “minor” territorial advances.
During his visit on October 19, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Valery Zalouzhny, explained the means used by the Russian army in this area: “The enemy is actively deploying assault units, launching a large number of armored vehicles and using aviation and artillery.” .
Russia suffered heavy losses
Despite a significant mobilization of resources, the Russian army was in trouble and each advance was associated with heavy casualties. In its morning report on October 20, the Ukrainian Army General Staff said that the Russian army had lost about 900 men – killed or wounded – and 150 armored vehicles in 24 hours. No estimates of Ukrainian casualties were provided by either Russian or local authorities.
These losses did not discourage the Russian General Staff. According to the ISW, in its note of October 22, new Russian units were transferred to the Adviivka front “despite the ongoing difficulties associated with the frontal mechanized attacks and the failure of the advance of October 19 and 20.”