Russian anti-tank trenches stretch for 30 kilometers near the occupied Ukrainian town of Polohy in the south-east of the country. Behind are concrete barricades with “dragon’s teeth”. About a kilometer away are the defensive trenches of the Russian troops.
The installations visible in satellite images from US space company Capella Space are part of a dense Russian defense line that stretches from western Russia through eastern Ukraine to Crimea. Portal analyzed footage from thousands of positions inside Russia and along the Ukrainian front lines. Thus, the southern region of Zaporizhia is the most heavily fortified as a gateway to the Crimean peninsula. Thus, the Russian armed forces are waiting for the counteroffensive from Ukraine.
An offensive that, according to the head of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, could become a “tragedy” for Russia, despite all the preparations. He complains that his fighters only have 15% of the ammo they need.
Drone attack was “preparation”
Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops are training for the attack in the west of the country. According to the Ukrainian authorities, this will happen as soon as the armed forces are ready. According to the Ukrainian military, the drone attack on the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, annexed by Russia, on Saturday was already a preparation for the planned offensive. “This work prepares the full-scale offensive that everyone is waiting for,” he said.
The Russian side responded with rocket attacks. According to the Ukrainian military, the Ukrainian air defense system shot down 15 of the 18 rockets launched by Russian planes on Monday night. Apparently, the attacks are aimed at preventing the Ukrainian deployment, but several civilians are among the victims.
According to six military experts, Russian fortifications could severely slow down the Ukrainian offensive. The question is whether Ukraine can conduct complex, coordinated operations with combined weapons systems, says Neil Melvin, an analyst at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute. “The Russians have shown that they are incapable of doing this and have reverted to their old Soviet method of attrition.” A Ukrainian counteroffensive could change the dynamic of the war, which turned into a bloody battle of attrition. If Kiev regains control of the south, it could regain unimpeded access to its Black Sea export routes.
According to the experts, however, Kiev is unlikely to be able to count on new deliveries of big weapons from Western countries in the near future and is therefore under pressure to retake as much land as possible. “We clean out most of the properties in the West,” says Melvin. It will take a few years for them to be rebuilt.
Trenches run through Zaporizhia
Ukraine has set itself the goal of retaking all Russian-controlled territory – an area the size of Bulgaria. Russia, on the other hand, wants to avoid another withdrawal, such as from the city of Kherson, and therefore began digging multi-layered trenches in November to better entrench its troops. This is evident from the analysis of the satellite images.
According to military experts, the defense systems, which stretch for hundreds of kilometers, mark areas where Russia expects an attack or which it considers strategically important. According to the images, Russian positions are mainly concentrated close to the front lines in the southeastern region of Zaporizhia, to the east and on the narrow strip of land that connects Crimea to the rest of Ukraine.
“There are rifts running through the Zaporizhia region,” says John Ford, a researcher at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California. He estimates that this stretch alone is over 120 kilometers. Satellite images of the region show that some towns are surrounded by fortifications. Trenches were dug along the roads, in front of settlements and at Melitopol and Berdyansk airports. Northern Crimea was also fortified. There are also minefields and barbed wire.
All military experts interviewed assume that the focus of a Ukrainian counter-offensive will be on the south. The south is of strategic importance for Ukraine, says Oleksandr Musiyenko, a Kiev-based military analyst. A deep penetration could not only cut Russia’s land corridor to occupied Crimea, but also bring the peninsula within artillery range.
Front length like Achilles heel
Despite the dense defense network, the length of the front could overwhelm Russian forces, four of the experts say. Kiev will try to exploit this vulnerability with feints, distractions, surprises and speed. Musijenko estimates that Ukraine has around 100,000 men available for an attack. The Kremlin has not provided any information on the number of Russian troops in Ukraine or combat-ready troops within its borders.
Ukraine is targeting logistical hubs, as it did before recapturing the city of Kherson, says Musiyenko. Destroying the supply lines would weaken trench defenses. Expert Ford sums it up: “Obstacles on the battlefield are only obstacles as long as they can be guarded by capable troops.” (Portal)