- Analysts say the dramatic increase in drone attacks on Russian territory is likely to continue and could play a crucial role in the next phase of the war.
- Russia has seen a sharp increase in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) targeting western, central and southern regions of Russia, as well as the capital Moscow.
- Drones, mainly made in Ukraine, have provided Kiev with an opportunity to strike back at Russia itself. Recent targets include military bases, airfields and fuel depots.
Russian President Vladimir Putin uses binoculars to observe the Tsentr-2019 military exercise in the Donguz Mountains near the city of Orenburg on September 20, 2019.
Alexey Nikolsky | Afp | Getty Images
Analysts say the sharp rise in drone attacks on Russian territory is likely to intensify as Kiev appears increasingly determined to bring the destruction, instability and unpredictability of war – even if only a fraction of what it is experiencing – to Russia.
Russia has seen a sharp increase in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in recent weeks carrying out attacks on western, central and southern regions of Russia, as well as the capital Moscow and Russian-occupied Crimea.
As Ukraine continues a counteroffensive on its own soil to recapture Russian-occupied areas in the south and east of the country and aims to break Russia’s so-called “land bridge” to occupied Crimea, the use of drones to attack Russian areas is increasing another facet of Ukraine’s military strategy.
“War is coming to Russia,” Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in emailed comments Wednesday.
“Ukraine is showing that it can make life very difficult for Russia, Russians and Putin,” he added.
“Given the attacks in Crimea itself and the attacks on the land corridor and the Kerch Bridge, as well as the attacks on Russian shipping in the Black Sea, the clear message is that while the invasion was sold in part as an attempt to improve Russian security, However, Crimea has affected Russia is less safe for Russian forces.”
“And as long as this invasion continues, it’s only going to get worse,” Ash added.
Police officers cordon off an area around a damaged office building at the Moscow International Business Center following a reported drone attack in Moscow on August 1, 2023.
Alexander Nemenov | Afp | Getty Images
Airstrikes have intensified over the past few days, and the attacks have continued to spread into Russian territory. In the early hours of Wednesday morning, at least six Russian regions reported attempted drone strikes, one of which destroyed and damaged four military transport aircraft at an airfield in northwestern Russia.
Further attacks followed on Thursday night, with more drones being shot down in the Moscow area and in the Bryansk region in southern Russia, which borders Ukraine. Airports in the target regions have been forced to cancel and delay several flights due to the attacks.
Russia blamed Ukraine for recent drone strikes, while Ukraine remained typically tight-lipped about these and previous attacks. However, it is undeniable that UAVs have become a crucial weapon in both Russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine has been the target of thousands of Russian drone strikes during the 19-month conflict, with its energy, defense and civilian infrastructure targeted by swarms of Iranian-made UAVs. On Tuesday night, Kiev said it had repelled more than 20 drone and missile attacks on the capital.
However, in recent months there have been more drone attacks in Russia, targeting military bases, airfields and fuel depots as well as neighborhoods in Moscow. Experts agree that the Ukrainian armed forces are conducting attacks on Russian territory and are likely to be supported at times by dissatisfied war opponents from Russia.
A still image from a video shows smoke rising after a suspected drone attack on an oil depot in Sevastopol, Crimea, April 29, 2023.
Mikhail Razvozhaev via Telegram | Via Portal
While drone strikes pose headaches for Moscow on a military and political level, forcing the country to allocate air defense complexes to its own territory, analysts say they are unlikely to destabilize Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime unless an attack directly affects the country’s elite .
“All these drone strikes are forcing the Russian Defense Ministry to distribute its limited number of defense equipment deeper into Russia, for example by moving them from the front lines to Moscow and to airfields on internationally recognized territory of Russia,” Kirill Shamiev, a Russian political scientist, said a visiting scholar at the European Council on Foreign Relations told CNBC on Thursday.
“This is especially important for this limited number of assets like Pantsirs that are good and powerful.” [anti-aircraft missile] Systems on the front line, but now they have to bring some of them home. So that basically reduces the effectiveness there when they fight against the Ukrainians,” he noted.
Shamiev said the increase in attacks on Russian territory is unlikely to cause excitement in Russian society because it is not tightly connected and there have been few deaths from drone strikes.
However, if UAVs continue to be used against Moscow’s more elite neighborhoods, those where Putin’s allies and associates live, that could pose a problem for the Kremlin.
“If these drones continue to hit targets in Moscow and especially kill someone near the Kremlin, that would be unfortunate, and that’s what they want to prevent… I think they would rather the Ukrainians hit military targets than that.” civil political infrastructure, for example in Moscow,” said Shamiev.
CNBC has requested a response to these comments and is awaiting a response from the Kremlin.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in mid-August that Kiev was working to significantly increase its drone production, with the aim of producing UAVs with different ranges and different purposes.
“Production is necessary. We are increasing production significantly. However, we need to systematize what is already being delivered to the troops and deployed. Drones are the “eyes” and protection on the front lines,” Zelensky said in a late-night speech, adding “Drones are a guarantee that people do not have to pay with their lives if drones can be used.”
Men work at a factory that produces drones for the Ukrainian Armed Forces on August 30, 2023 in Kiev, Ukraine.
Global Images Ukraine | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Oleksandr Musiyenko, a military expert and head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies in Kyiv, told CNBC he expects drone strikes to further intensify as Ukraine continues to increase domestic drone production.
“I think the scale of these attacks will be larger. Ukraine has tried to use various types of drones to launch attacks on Russian military objects and Russian defense industrial objects. And I think that these drones can be a game changer in the Russo-Ukrainian war,” he told CNBC on Thursday.
“We don’t have different types of missiles like Russia, but we will increase the production of different types of drones.” “This is very important for us,” he emphasized.