Ukrainian intelligence believes that next spring and early summer will be crucial in the war, confirming there are indications that Russian troops are regrouping to prepare a “major offensive” in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate also estimates that Russian forces are unlikely to launch an attack from Belarus or southern Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War says that Russian forces may be preparing to conduct a crucial offensive or defensive operation in the Lugansk region and has observed a reallocation of conventional forces, such as airborne elements, on the Svátove axis to the Russian Kreminna Withdrawal from the Kherson region.
Failed Russian offensive in Zaporizhia
Russian forces continued their limited ground attacks to retake lost positions northwest of Svatove and around Kreminna.
They have also continued their ground offensive around Bakhmut. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on the city of Bakhmut itself.
The Institute for the Study of War says that over the past 72 hours, Russian forces have likely conducted an unsuccessful offensive operation in the Zaporizhia region, where they could not have gained grounddespite claims by some Russian occupation officials.
Eleven months since the invasion began: Ukraine has retaken 54% of the territory
This January 24 marks 11 months since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. .
According to the British Ministry of Defense so far Ukraine regained about 54% of the territory occupied by Russia since his invasion on February 24, 2022. Russia now controls about 18% of Ukraine’s territory internationally recognized, including the regions of Donbas and Crimea, which have been under Russian control since 2014.