3:59 a.m. ET, October 13, 2023
Analysis: Why the guns have fallen silent on one of the most dangerous fault lines in the Middle East
Analysis by CNN’s Tamara Qiblawi in Marjeyoun, Lebanon. A UN post painted blue warns against coming between it and the Lebanese-Israeli border wall in Dhayra, Lebanon, on October 12, 2023. Daniel Cade/Getty Images
The silence on Lebanon’s border with Israel is deafening. After five days of near-constant crossfire between fighters in Lebanon and Israeli forces, the guns appear to have largely fallen silent.
This remains one of the most important and dangerous fault lines in this volatile region. After Hamas’ surprise attacks on Israel on October 7, this border, which has been largely quiet since the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, has become even more consequential.
This is where conflicts arise fuel could leak against the raging fire of the current Hamas-Israel war by involving the most powerful paramilitary group in the Middle East: the Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Hezbollah’s political stance has clearly supported the Palestinian militants. It has sponsored rallies in support of Palestinian groups and strongly condemned Israel’s large-scale airstrikes on Gaza.
At least 1,300 people have been killed in Hamas’ attacks on Israel, while more than 1,500 people have been killed by Israeli strikes on Gaza since Saturday.
But it is still unclear whether Hezbollah will actively participate in this conflict. So far it has stuck to its current rules of engagement and repeatedly said it would only fire on Israel if it fired on Lebanese territory or its fighters. This has largely been adhered to, despite increasing general tensions.
Read the full analysis here.