ISW: “Russians probably destroyed the dam on purpose”
The Institute for War Research (ISW) considers it very likely that the Russians intentionally destroyed the Kakhovka Dam. “We cannot make a definitive assessment of responsibility for the June 6 accident, but the evidence, argument and rhetoric suggest that the Russians intentionally damaged the dam,” the American think tank’s daily bulletin said.
As early as October 21, 2022, the ISW noted that the Russians “have a clearer interest in flooding the lower Dnipro than the Ukrainians, despite damaging their defenses.” In fact, the Ukrainians have no interest in blowing up a dam and flooding 80 inhabited towns, while instead “Russia can use the floods to widen the Dnipro River and complicate the Ukrainian counter-offensive”. Although Russians note that damage to the dam is threatening Crimea’s water supply, the ISW notes that the peninsula has survived without water from the Dnipro River since the Russian occupation in 2014 and until the invasion began in 2022 has.
Finally, there is a possibility that the dam collapse was caused by “pre-existing structural damage,” but reports of heavy barrels and explosions prior to the collapse do not appear to align with that hypothesis, the Isw notes.