After the failure of its summer counteroffensive, Ukraine is looking ahead to the coming winter with concern. To hold out, including defense, the invaded country needs weapons, but there is a shortage of ammunition, an anonymous source told American broadcaster ABC News.
After the failure of its summer counteroffensive, Ukraine largely returned to the defensive along the thousand-kilometer front separating its forces from the occupied territories, with the exception of the Kherson region, where it managed to establish a tenuous bridgehead on the left bank of the river to build Dnieper. The Russians have regained the initiative, particularly in the Avdiivka area, where they are gaining ground with heavy losses and are trying to encircle and besiege this Ukrainian city, which has been fortified since the previous conflict in 2014. In this context, things are bleak for Kiev. There are fears that the balance of power will reverse and Moscow will regain supremacy over the winter, especially if arms supplies from the West dry up as the months go by, at the very moment that the Russian war industry recovered.
Comments by a Ukrainian military official to ABC News on November 21, the day after US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s surprise visit to Kiev, reflect this growing concern. “We are in big trouble… Basic ammunition is not arriving,” explained this anonymous military source, who is worried about the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which he said would lead to a reduction in arms deliveries to the Ukraine.
“No connection to Gaza,” said Washington
American deliveries of NATO-standard artillery shells to Kiev have fallen “by more than 30%” since Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza began on October 7, the Ukrainian official said. “They (American officials) told us that this would not affect (the United States’) commitments, but it does,” he said. However, Washington denies this. A senior American defense official, also quoted by ABC News on condition of anonymity, said the reduction in munitions shipments had “absolutely nothing to do with what is happening in Gaza.” The president’s plans “are implemented weeks in advance, so there is no connection between what is happening in Gaza and Ukraine,” he assured.
The difficulties over arms sales to Ukraine actually began before October 7, amid growing skepticism in American public opinion and discontent among Republican lawmakers who hold the majority of seats in the House of Representatives. Under the leadership of their new spokesman Mike Johnson, they have already postponed a new agreement on aid for Ukraine several times. In Kiev, Lord Austin announced an additional amount of $100 million, but this amount is actually quite modest compared to the previous ones and corresponds to funding already approved by Congress.
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This will certainly include the delivery of an unspecified number of 155mm artillery shells meeting NATO standards to supply the dozens of towed guns and self-propelled guns that the West has delivered to Kiev. But this high-intensity war is very demanding for the caliber of this type used on the battlefield. A few months ago, the New York Times reported that the Russians had fired 10 million shells in a year – or more than 25,000 a day on average…
Russia, which had large Soviet-era supplies before the war, was on track to produce two million shells a year – more than European and American production combined – the American daily added. Given the daily fire in Ukraine, this is certainly not enough on the Russian side to replenish its supplies, but Moscow can count on the help of its North Korean ally. According to the South Korean army, Pyongyang may have already delivered a million 152mm grenades to Russia.
European aid
In contrast, Westerners risk struggling to follow. And the concern doesn’t just come from America. On November 14, the European Union acknowledged that it would not meet its goal of delivering one million ammunition to Ukraine in 2023. “The million will not be reached, we have to assume that,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius shortly before a meeting of the 27 defense ministers in Brussels. The European Union has so far delivered around 300,000 artillery ammunition to Ukraine from its stocks. But Kiev needs three million ammunition a year, while the EU currently produces 600 to 700,000, and perhaps a million next year, said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur, whose government announced funding of 280 million euros for the supply of 155mm grenades had.
Of course, numbers aren’t everything. Ukraine retains a significant advantage in the artillery duels between it and Russia. Without mentioning the American Himars multiple rocket launchers, Western guns – like the French Caesar – are actually more precise, faster and at the same time have a longer range than their Russian counterparts. This advantage allowed the Ukrainians, otherwise well-informed by their Western allies on the ground, to defeat the Russians in “counter-battery fire” during their failed summer counteroffensive. These are shots at enemy batteries, which are possible especially after a first enemy shot, provided the origin of the shot can be quickly determined.
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The Russian artillery therefore suffers from a high rate of attrition, which weakens the renewal of its cannon stocks, even if the barrels wear out after a certain number of shots fired. The fact is that the mass of Russian equipment is enormous. Given this, Ukraine must maintain its stockpiles and receive a continuous flow of ammunition at all costs.