Sao Paulo
Negotiations on the details of Azerbaijan’s takeover of the Armenian enclave of NagornoKarabakh began this Thursday (21) in a climate of consternation among the leadership of the region, which was an autonomous entity for 32 years after the end of the Soviet Union.
“Karabakh has been left alone: Russian peacekeepers are practically not fulfilling their obligations, the democratic West has turned its back, just like Armenia,” says David Babyan, adviser to the president of the selfproclaimed Republic of Artsakh, as Armenians say The region is on Azerbaijani territory said Portal.
A delegation from NagornoKarabakh met with representatives of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in the Azerbaijani city of Ievlakh. According to Babayan, she received a general dictate containing the conditions for the disarmament of the region and the steps for its integration into the surrounding country. “We have a ceasefire agreement, but we hope for a final agreement,” he said.
Overshadowed by the Ukrainian War, the NagornoKarabakh issue was resolved “manu militari” in just 24 hours, ending 32 years of conflict that resulted in two wars, one from 1992 to 1994 with an Armenian victory and the seizure of territory in the region . and another in 2020 with the recapture of the territories by the Azerbaijanis.
Baku violated a ceasefire from the 2020 conflict, brokered by Russia and maintained by a 2,000strong peacekeeping force from Moscow, and bombed military positions and equipment in NagornoKarabakh. The Kremlin remained immobile, leaving Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Vladimir Putin’s nemesis, isolated.
Unable to respond and faced with an apparent lack of support from Moscow and Yerevan, the ethnic Armenians surrendered, with perhaps 200 people killed in the action. Aliyev announced on television the final victory and the conquest of the region, while Putin viewed the fall as a fait accompli.
This signals a weakening of Moscow’s relative position in the region after centuries of rule against Turkish and Persian rivals. But the geopolitical reality is different and the Kremlin’s focus is now on Ukraine.
Still, it is virtually impossible that the resumption would have taken place without the Kremlin’s approval. Earlier this month, the Russian president met with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Azerbaijan’s biggest supporter, and it was almost certainly there that regional division was agreed.
What the Turk gave up in exchange for the Russian remains up in the air. Ankara is a member of NATO (Western military alliance) and, despite supporting and arming Kiev in the war, maintains good relations with Moscow, including several joint energy projects. Erdogan condemned the invasion but did not impose sanctions on the Kremlin.
The West, in turn, tried to intervene in the discussion by providing symbolic support to Pashinyan and conducting limited military exercises between the US and Armenia, which ironically ended on Wednesday (20). The European Union and France also tried to intervene in the discussion, but the game was over.
Left behind, as Babayan said, are the 120,000 ethnic Armenians of Karabakh who fear ethnic cleansing. Aliyev’s promise of peaceful integration is being challenged by decades of conflict between neighbors in a region that has existed since at least the 2nd century B.C. is inhabited by Armenians.
This Thursday morning (dawn in Brazil), the Azerbaijani leader spoke to Putin on the phone. According to the Kremlin, the Russian asked the residents of the region for protection, but there was no clarity about what would happen, according to the assessment.
There is only one exit connecting NagornoKarabakh with Armenia, the likely destination of potential refugees, the socalled Lachin corridor. It has been closed several times by Azerbaijani forces in recent months, prompting criticism from Prime Minister Pashinyan of the actions of Russian soldiers. Now the politician is confronted with street protests demanding his resignation.
“Anytime her [azeris] They can destroy us, commit genocide against us. The West is calm, Russia is calm, Armenia is calm. “What should we do?” complained Babayan.
What will happen to the peacekeeping force is also unknown. On Wednesday, a Russian convoy was attacked by Azerbaijani forces and there was an unknown number of deaths shortly after the ceasefire in Baku. According to the Kremlin, Aliyev apologized for the incident.