In the months leading up to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, world leaders grew increasingly uneasy about the build-up of Russian forces on the border. As the war enters its fifth week, were these fears about the power of the Russian military justified?
Russian forces continue to besiege major cities like Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Mariupol and have made progress but not won the decisive victory that Putin probably expected and most of the country remains under Ukrainian control.
Britain’s Defense Ministry said on Saturday that Russian forces were unwilling to engage in infantry operations, relying instead on air and artillery bombardments. Kyiv said more than 16,000 Russian soldiers were killed, including half a dozen generals. Russia said Friday that 1,351 of its soldiers had been killed. NATO estimates the death toll in Russia at between 7,000 and 15,000 after four weeks of fighting.
The underestimation of the Ukrainian resistance may partly explain why Putin’s forces have not made the progress that the Kremlin was likely hoping for, but his campaign has also been marred by military failures and it appears that the original strategy has failed.
Newsweek asked six experts for their opinion on whether the international community has overestimated Russia’s military capabilities:
Michal Baranowski, head of the Warsaw office of the German Marshall Fund
“I think both the West and Russia overestimated Russia’s military capabilities. From Putin’s point of view, this war should have lasted only a few days.
“Now it is clear that Putin will not achieve his main political goal of bringing Ukraine and the Ukrainian people into the sphere of influence of Russia.
“Nevertheless, we should not make the mistake of underestimating the Russian army. There are still large reserves in Russia that were not used in this war, precisely because the Russian plan called for it to last only a few days.
“We would celebrate the Russian defeat too soon at our own peril.”
Tracey German, Professor of Conflict and Security, King’s College London
“The invasion certainly didn’t go the way I would have wished for Putin and the Russian leadership. There was an expectation […] that the military modernization process begun in 2008 combined with operational experience (particularly in Syria) would result in the Russian military being far more capable.
“However, the evidence suggests that problems in areas such as logistics, troop morale and failure to achieve air superiority remain.
“During the first month of the invasion of Ukraine, we saw a number of shortcomings that reflect long-standing problems. Despite years of modernization and investment, the Russians don’t seem to have got the hang of some of the basics, like logistics.
“The logistical problems are surprising as they are a long-standing problem.
“Russian operations in Chechnya in the 1990s and the 2008 invasion of Georgia revealed a military logistics system that was struggling to keep up, particularly with demand for basic necessities such as food, fuel and ammunition.
“This has been reflected in Ukraine, particularly with the troops in the north.”
Matt Qvortrup, Professor of Political Science, Coventry University, UK
“Yes we have got that [overestimate Russia]. But the fact is that the Russian army has a bad record.
“The invasion of Georgia in 2008 showed that the Russian army is ill-equipped to fight conventional wars. After some atrocities—bombing hospitals—the Russians withdrew to the positions they had previously held.
“They go back to 1905 [the Russian empire] lost the war to Japan, and 21 million deaths during WWII can hardly be called a success. And remember the [1939] Invasion of Finland did not go according to plan.”
Lt. Col. William Astore, former professor of history at the US Air Force Academy
“It is certainly possible that the US overestimated Russia’s military capabilities. Keep in mind that Russia spends $78 billion a year on its military, which is 1/10th of what the US spends.
“The Russian military also lacks recent combat experience, especially in large-scale operations. Also remember that the Pentagon routinely blows up threats as we did with the Soviet military machine in the 1970s and 1980s. The Pentagon is stepping up threats to boost its own funding.”
Ian Ona Johnson, Assistant Professor of Military History, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, Indiana
“Apparently, analysts overestimated Russia’s conventional capabilities and, equally important, underestimated Ukraine’s.
“Putin has invested heavily in rebuilding Russia’s military power since taking office. He increased military spending, switched to a standing army of volunteers, and attempted to modernize all branches of the Russian military.
“But the much-vaunted fifth-generation fighters, precision munitions, and hypersonic missiles in general have had little impact on the war so far.
“Experts have long been impressed by Russian doctrine … based on the writings of Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov. These emphasized all aspects of warfare, including information and economic warfare, manipulation of opponents’ policies, and hybrid warfare.
“The picture Gerasimov painted was very subtle… but it bears little resemblance to the war that has been fought in Ukraine to date, which looks much more like the Soviet effort in Afghanistan.
“Russia’s success in invading Crimea in 2014 – which appeared to demonstrate the Gerasimov Doctrine – indicated a modern, professional and highly competent military.
“But these operations have largely been conducted by Russian special forces and elite airborne units, while the current war in Ukraine has required a much broader spectrum of the Russian military. In addition, the Ukrainian armed forces, which are better trained, armed and far more numerous, have proved very successful in defense.”
Katie Laatikainen, Professor of Political Science at Adelphi University, New York
“Russia’s total capabilities are still much more significant than Ukraine’s[…]but we probably overestimated the capabilities of Russia’s conventional armed forces, focusing on the number of troops amassed on Ukraine’s borders in the run-up to the war.
“But it is the qualitative aspect of Russian military capabilities that has proved so momentous.
“The deployment of underqualified, ill-informed conscripts, the lack of communication between the various military commands on the ground, and overall poor logistical support have all contributed to the Russian military’s worse-than-expected performance and its resort to more scorched-earth tactics of sorts.”
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry and Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry for comment.
Smoke rises from a Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces on the side of the road in the Lugansk region on February 26, 2022. Military errors and significant losses of troops and equipment have caused the Russian invasion to stall. Anatoly Stepanov/Getty Images