Unfortunately, it was inevitable that Americans would die sooner or later.
After 159 attacks by various Iranian-backed proxy militias on U.S. military bases in the Middle East since Hamas invaded Israel on October 7, it was a miracle that no one was killed – although some suffered horrific, life-altering injuries that the rest of us all too easily forgotten.
Then on Sunday there was the 160th attack on a US outpost in northeastern Jordan, right on the border with Syria and Iraq, known as Tower 22.
It was there to monitor Islamic State movements and provide logistics and supplies to the Al-Tanf garrison near the Syrian side of the border.
Three US soldiers were killed and over 30 were injured, some very seriously.
It is notable that it took 160 attacks and three deaths for the Biden administration to realize that there must now be a robust American response.
Over the past four months, U.S. retaliation has been half-hearted and ineffective. Rather than being deterred from further attacks, Iranian proxies were encouraged. The attacks escalated.
This is President Biden's worst nightmare — and it is entirely of his own making.
It is notable that it took 160 attacks and three deaths for the Biden administration to realize that there must now be a robust American response.
Over the past four months, U.S. retaliation has been half-hearted and ineffective. Rather than being deterred from further attacks, Iranian proxies were encouraged. The attacks escalated. (Pictured: Iran fires a missile during a military exercise).
This is President Biden's worst nightmare – and it's entirely of his own making. (Pictured: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei).
He knows that his weak response to Iranian-backed aggression has only led to more attacks. He realizes that, given the American deaths, he cannot simply continue with the same symbolic retaliation. But he is also desperate to avoid a major regional conflict in an election year, especially if it threatens a global economic downturn during a presidential campaign in which he has almost only the strength of the U.S. economy in his favor.
But the predictable price of appeasement, as history has shown, is that you end up having to do more than if you had opposed the enemy from the start, rather than letting them act with impunity.
Like many leaders before him, Biden will now have to learn this lesson the hard way, which would certainly have been unnecessary for a man with supposedly decades of experience in foreign policy.
The air in Washington is now filled with the saber rattling of right-wing Republican hawks calling for attacks on Iran itself.
It could come to this. But not yet.
It is never easy to take on those who use proxies to wage war. Finally, NATO equipped Ukraine with weapons to resist the Russian invaders. But we think it is exaggerated that Putin would attack a NATO country as a result. Even Donald Trump, who is rightly seen as tougher on Tehran than Biden, has not attacked Iran (although he came close once and only withdrew at the last minute).
Still, Biden must stop harping on Iran.
The mullahs see a weak, distracted president who is letting them get away with murder (literally). He must dissuade her immediately.
First, he must launch vigorous and relentless attacks on Iranian proxy bases to reduce their ability to launch further attacks on U.S. bases. This must be on a much larger scale than anything Biden has previously considered.
At the same time, the economic sanctions that the Biden administration foolishly eased because it believed there was a deal with Iran must be reimposed with renewed vigor, particularly against Tehran's oil exports, which have poured billions into the state's coffers and financed the chaos , which it is now wreaking havoc across the region, from Gaza to southern Lebanon to Syria and Iraq.
But even that won't be enough. Iranian leaders don't care about the deaths of Arab militias. Tehran sees them as merely useful idiots, Arab blood expendable on the path to becoming the region's superpower, dominating everywhere from the Gulf to the Mediterranean.
The predictable cost of appeasement, as has been shown throughout history, is that one ends up having to do more than if one had opposed the enemy from the start, rather than allowing them to act with impunity. (Pictured: Strike victims, specialists Breonna Moffett, left, and Kennedy Ladon Sanders).
Like many leaders before him, Biden will now have to learn this lesson the hard way, which would certainly have been unnecessary for a man with supposedly decades of experience in foreign policy. The air in Washington is now filled with the saber rattling of right-wing Republican hawks calling for attacks on Iran itself. It could come to this. But not yet. (Pictured: Tower 22).
Biden needs to stop bickering with Iran. The mullahs see a weak, distracted president who is letting them get away with murder. He must dissuade her immediately. First, he must launch vigorous and relentless attacks on Iranian proxy bases to reduce their ability to launch further attacks on U.S. bases. (Pictured: Putin and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei).
No, the Iranian leadership must pay a price – and here Biden should follow Trump's playbook.
In 2020, Trump authorized a U.S. drone strike on Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force, which funds, trains, organizes and arms Iranian proxy fighters across the region.
His assassination did not end the Quds Force's nefarious activities, but it limited its operations lest more leaders one day find a deadly drone hovering over their heads.
Biden needs to go further and target Quds Force leaders wherever they are active, including Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. U.S. allies, particularly Israel, will be able to assist with the intelligence necessary to carry out this killing. The US government could even make it clear that for every additional US death, a Quds leader will be removed, starting with General Ismail Qaani, who replaced Soleimani. That should bring minds together in Tehran.
Even after the Tower 22 tragedy, the administration doesn't seem to fully understand it. A few hours after America came to terms with the latest loss of military deaths, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby talked about how “we are not seeking war with Iran” and that America fears a “major conflict.” in the USA have Middle East.
Of course we are not seeking war with Iran. But you don't have to tell Tehran that. Indeed, the mullahs must remember that if they continue on their current course, they will face the full force of US airstrikes on all of their valuable energy infrastructure and military bases, weakening their power in a country where they are already deeply unpopular are, undermined.
In the democratic West we have lost the ability to deal forcefully with dictators, nowhere more so than in Biden's America, which is why autocrats have made so much progress in the 21st century.
This is why President Putin thought that invading Ukraine would be a piece of cake. Why China's President Xi constantly threatens Taiwan with an invasion or blockade. Why Iran is raging in the Middle East.
At some point the democracies will get their act together – but late and at the cost of so much more blood and money than would have been necessary if we had shown a little more courage from the start.
Many may say, with some justification, that Biden is simply incapable of standing up to Tehran.
The Iranian leadership must pay a price – and here Biden should follow Trump’s playbook.
In 2020, Trump authorized a U.S. drone strike on Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani (center), head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force, which funds, trains, organizes and arms Iranian proxy fighters across the region. Biden needs to go further and target Quds Force leaders wherever they are active, including Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon.
The current inaction is not entirely his fault either. It can be traced back to President Obama's days in power, when Biden was his loyal vice president. In many ways, Biden is simply a continuation of Obama's weak and unfocused foreign policy.
But Biden must realize that if he continues like this, he will pay a heavy price. Jimmy Carter was the last president to let Iran walk all over him, suffering an ignominious one-term presidential defeat in 1980 at the hands of the more hawkish Ronald Reagan.
Trump is wrong when he says we are on the brink of a third world war. But we are on the verge of a world where there is war on multiple fronts – and we are already in it.
This will only get worse – and hostilities will only increase – as long as the dictators think we are gentle.
One way to get Iran to change its mind would be for the US Navy to sink the Iranian spy ship that is helping the Houthis in the Red Sea. I suspect that Tehran would then finally realize that we are now really serious.