After a 2023 that saw record temperatures, 2024 appears to be on track to be even warmer, according to weather forecasts. A worrying situation that requires urgent action.
2023 will be the hottest year ever recorded worldwide
According to the European Observatory Copernicus, 2023 was the world's hottest year ever. In fact, a record number of days were recorded in which the temperature exceeded the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) by 1.5°C. “The annual increase in global average temperature was exceptionally significant from 2022 to 2023,” specifies the European service. This means that for the first time in history, every day of 2023 will have exceeded the average value for the period between 1850 and 1900 by at least 1°C. With a global average temperature of 14.98°C, “each month from June to December in 2023 was hotter than the corresponding month of each previous year,” points out the European Observatory.
In September, “the temperature difference above the average from 1991 to 2020 was greater than in any month of a year in all data collected”, with 0.93 ° C more than in the reference period, indicates the European institute. Then come the months of October, November and December, which lag just behind in terms of temperature difference compared to the average for the period from 1991 to 2020.
According to weather forecasts, will 2024 be hotter than 2023?
2024 could well break last year's heat record. At least that is what the UN estimated last Friday. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to continue this year.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a greater than 30% chance that the current year will be warmer than the last, and an almost 100% chance that 2024 will be among the five hottest years in history. For his part, Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist at NASA, estimates that there is a “50%” chance that 2024 will be warmer than 2023.
In light of this, the United Nations is calling for urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to address climate change, which Celeste Saulo says represents “the greatest challenge facing humanity.” In a report published in November, the WMO pointed out that concentrations of gases responsible for the greenhouse effect rose sharply in 2023 after reaching record levels the previous year. “Climate change is getting worse – and this is clearly due to human activity,” said Celeste Saulo, recalling the urgency of action: “We cannot afford to wait any longer.” We are already acting, but we must do more , and quickly.”
