El Niño is an atmospheric and oceanic phenomenon that occurs with a periodicity of 10 to 12 years in the Pacific Ocean. According to the report on the evolution of this phenomenon issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), it is on track to become one of the five most intense weather events of all time.
Scientists say this phenomenon will have reached cruising strength in 2023 and will need to weaken until it reaches neutrality in the fall of 2024. They suggest that El Niño still remains active and very intense over the tropical Pacific, but it has reached its maximum intensity after 6 months of continuous intensification and will soon weaken. According to several weather models, the slowdown in El Niño activity will give way to other phenomena that are still in the speculative stage.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says in its latest update on the phenomenon that all El Niño monitoring regions recorded well-above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) last week. It is useful to point out that these temperature variations vary from region to region and from period to period. This explains why the phenomenon shifts over the months and, above all, changes its appearance.
The impact of the end of El Niño on the weather
However, scientists who have analyzed weather data say El Niño will no longer strengthen as it has. The temperatures are even showing a slight downward trend. The phenomenon will therefore not lead to a Super El Niño. It will continue to remain in the annals by being among the five strongest El Niños between the events of 1972/73 (+2.1 °C), 1982/83 (+2.2 °C), 1997/98 (+2, 4°C) in 2015/16 (+2.6°C), according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
For the near future, scientists predict above-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific at least through February, March and April 2024. Only after these three months does this phenomenon begin to transition into the neutral phase of the phenomenon.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration therefore predicts a greater probability of a neutral phase of El Niño in the months of April, May and June 2024. This probability of a neutral phase decreases in the following quarters, while the probability of Niña increases (44%). ) and almost corresponds to the neutral phase probability for the quarters of July, August and September.
In conclusion, meteorologists point out that there is a possibility that the other phenomenon called La Niña will form next year. However, it is still too early to say with certainty whether El Niño will be replaced by La Niña. Looking back, this possibility exists because there have been cases where a La Niña formed immediately after a strong El Niño.
