(Montreal) Santa may have to outfit his sleigh with wheels instead of skis as he makes his rounds in southern Quebec. If MétéoMédia’s 2023-2024 winter forecasts speak of a fairly normal winter in terms of rainfall and temperatures, bookmakers would be tempted to give odds of around 50-50 for a white Christmas in the south.
Posted at 6:26 am
Pierre Saint-Arnaud The Canadian Press
“As the month of December is expected to be mild and temperatures will be slightly above normal, there will be periods above zero degrees. So we’ll have some snow, but maybe some of it will melt. “It will happen in the last days before Christmas,” explains the head of the meteorological service at MétéoMédia, André Monette.
Fortunately, the south of the province is not the center of the world, he emphasizes. “It is certain that if we stay more in regions like the Laurentians on the way to Charlevoix, the chances of a white Christmas are much higher and temperatures will not be high enough to melt all the snow. » The sleigh skis therefore have to be transported in the bottomless trunk of the happy man in red in order to supply the rest of the province.
Mild, shorter winters
This trend of December being unsuitable for winter sports in southern Quebec has been evident for several years. “Winters are much milder, the months of December warm up faster and it is becoming increasingly difficult to get snow cover in December. However, there are exceptions. December can be very snowy. »
This is how global warming is observed. “If we look over 10, 20 or 30 years, the trend is generally towards milder and milder autumns, with winters coming later and later. Summers are the same: they are getting longer and longer. Heat waves occur in May and September, which used to be much rarer. »
An unusual El Niño winter
As for the rest, the winter that comes after the celebrations will be “an unusual El Niño winter,” to use the expression of the weather service, which every year dares to predict the unpredictable.
Typically, an El Niño winter means a mild winter under the influence of this climatic phenomenon, which is characterized by unusually high water temperatures in the eastern part of the South Pacific, near the coast of Ecuador, Peru and Chile.
Why unusual this time? Because even if this phenomenon should give us a mild start to winter in December, elsewhere in the waters of the Pacific it is accompanied by much more widespread and unusual heat, which confuses the maps and reduces the influence of El Niño.
A star versus an all-star game
“At MétéoMédia we will distinguish El Niño this winter precisely because it is surrounded by warm water. El Niño, yes, these are warm temperatures, but since there is a lot of warm water elsewhere in the Pacific, the consequences for the winter should be colder temperatures in January and February, which are more in line with the normal season, unlike the first half. »
To better understand himself, André Monette dares to draw an analogy to ice hockey. Imagine El Niño being a Connor McDavid (or Bedard, whichever you prefer). “When you have a big star on an average team, you will really see the impact of the big player. But if it’s an all-star game and there are only stars in it, the effect won’t be as noticeable. »
Return of the common cold in Quebec
MétéoMédia therefore predicts that winter will normalize after the holidays in the future. And just like credit card bills, Hydro-Québec’s meter readings risk becoming a concern for many after the December lull.
“We will be close to normal for the St. Lawrence Valley. But in the middle of winter, January-February, it is usually cold. It’s normal, we’re in Quebec. This is in contrast to December, which was rather mild,” warns the meteorologist.
Snow and possible surprises
What if we look at precipitation? Not much snow? A lot of snow ? Too much snow? According to André Monette, the most densely populated areas are expected to receive amounts close to normal, that is, around 150 centimeters of snow in the Montreal region and 210 centimeters in the Quebec region, a snow bank that gets higher as you move east.
However, the map created by MétéoMédia shows much more intense storm activity under this corridor, he indicates, and we will not be safe from other gifts falling from the sky. “The path of larger systems lies further south of us. On the other hand, the St. Lawrence Valley is very close to the active corridor. It just needs to rise a little more and we could be in for some surprises. However, areas north of the river are more remote and are generally expected to experience slightly less rainfall. »
Finally, the meteorologist doesn’t hide when the killer question arises: How reliable have these forecasts been in recent years? “In general, I would say around 75% success,” he says confidently. Let’s admit that this is a success rate that the service has nothing to be ashamed of.