After being almost forgotten for almost seven years, the El Niño phenomenon is back. This phenomenon is on the verge of becoming one of the five most intense events of all time, says the report on the development of this phenomenon issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
What is the El Niño phenomenon?
El Niño is an atmospheric and oceanic phenomenon that occurs with a periodicity of 10 to 12 years in the Pacific Ocean. During an El Niño year, the easterly winds that normally circulate around the equator over the Pacific Ocean weaken and the water warms significantly over the basin, i.e. on the North American side. South. In the western part of the basin they are comparatively less warm, which has very significant climatic consequences that go far beyond the Pacific basin, explained Francois Gourand, forecast engineer at Géo
According to the latest forecasts from NOAA's CPC, it is highly likely that El Niño will last throughout the Northern Hemisphere winter. This report shows that the probability that the El Niño phenomenon will reach “historically strong” status in the November-January season is now 54%, while in the previous update this probability was only 35% .
After a particularly hot 2023, “next year could be even hotter.” This is clearly and unequivocally due to the contribution of increasing concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases from human activities,” said WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas. “Extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts, forest fires, heavy rains and floods will become more frequent in some regions and have significant impacts,” he added.
What impact on the weather in France?
According to some researchers, there is no clear evidence of the impact of El Niño on the weather or climate in France. Thus, the effects of the El Niño phenomenon in Europe in general and in France in particular are indirect, variable and with low correlation, but can occur. “The El Niño phenomenon, characterized by warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, can affect the climate of mainland France in various ways. It can lead to changes in rainfall and temperatures, resulting in potentially milder or wetter winters,” says tameteo.com.
Milder than normal temperatures are expected in France for the months of December 2023, January 2024 and February 2024. Therefore, wetter than normal weather is more likely, except in Mediterranean regions where no particular scenario is favored.
