First demonstration of the European Center for winter 2023/2024
WINTER 2023-2024, a first forecast for Central Europe has just arrived, with the trend also for Italy.
As always, to outline such a long-term trend, we have to rely on the so-called Season forecastwhose task is to predict at a general level what will happen both from a climatic point of view (the anomalies of the temperatures) and from the pluviometric (the anomalies of rainfall).
In this context, the first map that we propose below refers to the latest update of the relevant European Center with operational headquarters in Bologna: Well, it’s pretty clear from that, like me thermal values they should be preserved above average even up to +2°C on Russia and part of the Scandinavian peninsula. What does that mean specifically? In fact, the lack of “raw material”, ie cold reservoirs, exactly where the icy impulses should arise, which can bring waves of cold and snow to the southernmost latitudes of the European continent all the way to our country. Temperature anomaly forecast for the beginning of winter (Source: ECMWF) But who is to blame for this situation? In recent months there has been a special phenomenon that experts call “El Niño“: This term refers to a Warming surface water temperature of the Pacific Ocean Central and Eastern climate, which often influences the climate of our planet, with varying effects also in Europe and Italy, although it is an event that occurs practically on the other side of the world.
In fact, current weather analyzes show one quite extensive heating which extends from the tropical Pacific to the equator, with positive values of about 3°C compared to normal. These are significant anomalies that are expected to intensify in the coming months: this would lead to significant changes in the level of atmospheric circulation on the planet. Thermal anomaly over the Pacific Ocean. The water is warmer than normal, El Niño is returningWinter demonstration in ITALY – If you look at the past and the statistics, the effects of the “El Niño” event on Europe and therefore also on Italy can be seen in an increase in temperature with deviations of around +1/1.5°C compared to December and January the historical averages. However, it cannot be ruled out that there will be short but intense waves of frost, such as those that have occurred in recent years. A lot will depend on fate Polar vortexcapable of influencing the movements of air masses throughout the continent.
In short, for both seasonal forecasts and atmospheric indicesBeginning of next winter it is over-predicted light and above all by being well characterized little snowfallat least in the plains and along the coasts.
We will see if these hypotheses are confirmed in the next updates or if there will be some changes. Therefore, as we always remember, these are only general, very long-term forecasts They are not to be understood as classic weather forecasts and are not useful for planning activities.