The unpredictable and devastating weather phenomenon hit southern Africa twice in three weeks. It is on track to be classified by meteorologists as the longest cyclone in history.
Unpredictable, unshakable and deadly: Cyclone Freddy has been on the move for 36 days, devastating homes and villages. Since February 6, when he was born off the coast of Australia in the depths of the monsoon, the number of his victims has continued to grow and as of Wednesday March 15, in Mozambique and Malawi, his final stops, there were fewer than 200 the victims. Many of them perished in the landslides and floods caused by the cyclone.
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The extraordinary meteorological phenomenon began its course on February 6 between Indonesia and Australia. It’s still just a tropical storm, and there’s no indication it will become the longest cyclone ever recorded in the history of known meteorological data, breaking an earlier record of 31 days recorded in the Pacific : Tropical Cyclone John in 1994.
Freddy, launched between Australia and the tip of Bali, gathers momentum and crosses the Indian Ocean from east to west. It almost fell on Mauritius but passed about 120 km north of the island on February 20. Gusts of up to 280 km/h are registered.
The Mauritians are blowing and the Reunionese are taking their turn to be hit by the dangerous cyclone. During the night of February 20/21, it passed 190 km north of the island, eventually causing only material damage before resuming its course.
It hit Madagascar in the Mananjary region on February 21 and claimed its first victims there: seven dead.
Weakened by the shore leave, Freddy took the form of a moderate tropical storm (65 km/h winds gusting 90 km/h) and on February 24 approached the African coasts and southern Mozambique. Then he initiates a loop, a very rare trajectory. Freddy regained strength by crossing the Mozambique Channel in the opposite direction and returned on March 6 to attack southern Madagascar. After this second round, the balance is eight dead.
The cyclone continues its loop, turning northwest again and approaching the coasts of southern Africa again, even more violently, around the 11th night of March 12-13, with less strong winds but with torrential rain. Freddy causes floods and landslides, and the toll is very high: it exceeds 200 dead.
According to the latest forecast on Wednesday March 15, Freddy should dissipate over land but the rain is likely to continue for a few more days.
The duration and intensity of the cyclone are unprecedented
Freddy covered more than 10,000 km from east to west in the Indian Ocean. The phenomenon is unique in several respects. First, it is extremely rare: for such an extreme meteorological event to last so long, extremely rare parameters must be matched over a long period of time. Below: Equally strong winds at sea level and above the cyclone as well as warm and stable temperatures. Such is the case with Freddy, who was also unable to take advantage of a favorable environment to escape to more southerly latitudes to “dissolve” in nontropical systems. So it stagnates, charges in intensity and humidity over the warm seas, and spins.
In addition to its exceptional duration, Freddy is a particularly violent cyclone. With a score of 84.7 on the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) index on March 13: Cumulative tropical cyclone energy is the amount of total energy of a cyclone, estimated from the maximum wind speed for every six hours). it’s in full swing breaking the world record of 82 held since 2006 by Hurricane Ioke in the Pacific Ocean.
To be considered a cyclone or hurricane (the term for a cyclone in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, North Atlantic, and central and eastern North Pacific), a storm must achieve wind speeds in excess of 78 mph (119 km/h). With sustained winds of 270 km/h for a minute since February 19, Freddy has peaked on the scale of the Regional Meteorological Center in Réunion, which specializes in cyclones, classifying it as a “very intense tropical cyclone”.