Five things that are important to me
Joshua Dobbs is not a janitor
I felt like Joshua Dobbs playing in an island game on “Sunday Night Football” might wake up the national audience to how the Vikings offense has been going lately. Dobbs was a fantastic feel-good story and a godsend for the Vikings after Kirk Cousins’ injury. Still, this unit had more fits than the NFL RedZone channel highlights would suggest.
Some of this is to be expected considering Dobbs is relatively new to this situation and wasn’t even supposed to see the field two weeks ago. It has to do with who Dobbs is as a player.
All credit to Dobbs, where so many backup quarterbacks come on the field, hunching over and afraid to make a mistake, he couldn’t be further from it. Dobbs has tried to push the ball down the field and take advantage of opportunities all season with both the Cardinals and Vikings.
He was rewarded with those RedZone highlight plays and crucial moments, but he also put the ball in danger. You saw that throughout on Sunday evening.
Dobbs fumbled and threw a pick. Honestly, he was lucky that he was able to escape the night with just a single attack. He plays in such a way that the defense has the opportunity to pass the ball. The Broncos certainly had their chance to take the ball away from Minnesota. I’ll be fascinated to see what services that list “high-dollar plays” end up at Dobbs this weekend. It felt like the rate was high.
Joshua Dobbs is not a janitor. That’s fine. A man who does more than just keep the train on the tracks may be good for this offense; We’ve seen the evidence. It should be noted that this quarterback who plays with his hair on fire will have even more incentive to take advantage of these opportunities when Justin Jefferson returns to the game. That could be as early as Week 12, on Monday Night Football against the Bears.
Just know that a player of this style can win you a fantasy battle with his fearless rushing. He can turn some playmakers into great extras in the right environment. Shoot, Dobbs himself could very well help the Vikings secure a playoff spot in a watered-down NFC. Still, we were reminded Sunday night that a quarterback who plays like that can also find himself in a difficult situation where he’s playing against a defense that’s vastly better than it was at the beginning of the season… and drops a game.
All of this is within the scope of possible outcomes for Dobbs, and I think national audiences may now be more aware of how wide that gap is.
Tank Dell returns (even more) with Nico Collins
Tank Dell was one of the best rookie wide receivers this season. As the top vertical receiver in CJ Stroud’s offense, he has had huge games. Given his size (under 170 pounds) and playing style, Dell is a difficult receiver to compare because he wins in such a unique way. Over the last two weeks, we’ve seen why having him in the right position is critical to his success.
Dell’s game-ending fantasy finish was solid last week, but he only hit six of his 14 targets. There were some issues regarding tight coverage and space. Dell is a bit on the fence, which isn’t surprising considering its stature.
He is best used off the line of scrimmage as a flanker receiver who has the flexibility to move into the slot to tear up nickel defenders. Dell is an absolute matchup nightmare as a slot man who is good enough as an explosive route runner to beat man coverage outside. You don’t really want him to take a ton of reps as a true X-receiver. It’s not the best way to maximize him, but that’s exactly what the Texans needed to do in Week 10.
The Texans got away with it because they have good players. CJ Stroud is already a teammate and Dell is more than capable of performing from the position. Good ecosystems can do this. Houston is a good ecosystem, as shocking as it may be.
With Collins as the X-receiver in Week 11, Dell was able to return to the flanker pre-snap motion option – and the results were epic. He shredded the Cardinals on downfield receptions, totaling eight catches on ten targets for 149 yards and a score. He was one of the most impressive receivers on breakout routes and on the sideline, also known as “big boy routes.”
I’ve been talking about this for a few weeks now, but Tank Dell may already be one of the most dangerous receivers on breakout routes, especially in the backfield. And that’s not all he can do. pic.twitter.com/9qWEuo8UJA
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) November 19, 2023
This is where Collins comes into play. Collins had a solid game himself, rushing for 65 yards on seven catches and a handful of close-range grabs. Collins dominates these in-breakers from the X-receiver spot against man coverage, so his routes essentially intersect with Dell’s and that puts the defense in big trouble.
Stroud got the best out of these two wideouts and they formed a perfectly complementary duo. Houston has so many bright spots and building blocks on offense.
The Jaguars’ offense is exploding
A similar wide receiver situation is brewing at another AFC South team. It was noted that Calvin Ridley’s best games came with Zay Jones in the lineup, and that trend continued into Week 11.
Calvin Ridley has 3 100-yard games this year.
Everyone came in the weeks Zay Jones is playing.
— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) November 19, 2023
Now some of these divisions could simply be a coincidence. This option always exists with on/off splits. But there is at least a good football reason why this game exists.
The Jaguars have a good receiving duo in Ridley and Christian Kirk, but it’s not a strong group when Jones isn’t on the field. Most importantly, Jones is the only other non-Ridley receiver who can consistently win outside. Kirk is a vertical slot receiver and fourth receiver Jamal Agnew is a converted cornerback and gadget player.
So if Jones is out, Ridley will be out as the X receiver. That leaves him facing a ton of press coverage – allowing defenses to disrupt a quarterback’s running routes and timing behind a disruptive pass protection unit – and being forced into a go-and-curl/comeback-heavy route tree. Ridley can win in all of these tasks, but the margin for error is small. With Jones back against the Titans, the Jaguars could do more with Ridley to put him in better position to make some big catches and vary the route tree.
It was easy to panic about the Jaguars’ offense after suffering a stunning loss following their bye against the 49ers. They definitely deserve the criticism they received. But I stand by what I’ve said about this team for most of the season. You are just a few ticks away from a very good operation. If they continue to find ways to maximize Ridley, it will go a long way.
Brock Purdy’s perfect passer rating
I know passer rating isn’t a perfect metric — I challenge you to find a traditional football metric that doesn’t have so many flaws — but passer rating can at least get us close to telling a story. Brock Purdy’s perfect rating of 158.3 in Week 11 shows how well he executed the 49ers’ offense against the Bucs.
The discourse surrounding Purdy last month was so disgusting. When he was hot, he was admonished for not being considered a top-five quarterback. As soon as there were a few turnovers and losses, we had to assume that Sam Darnold might soon have time. I mean, come on! As is often the case, the truth lies in the middle. The middle ground that Purdy is allowed to live in is the best centrist case in the NFL because of how great this offense can be at its peak.
Purdy’s deep throw to Brandon Aiyuk is just the perfect example of how his aggressiveness breathed life into an offense that had sometimes faltered due to frustration in previous seasons. This speaks to one of the best-designed units, littered with playmakers, having that charisma. That is not the case now.
Purdy uncorked a heater outside the numbers and put it in perfect position for elite route runner Brandon Aiyuk to pass on it. From there, Aiyuk did the rest. That’s why they have a new cap. Purdy plays in a way that allows others to shine. The best example is his connection to Aiyuk and how the 49ers wideout has become a bona fide WR1 in fantasy.
Maybe Purdy isn’t exactly perfect, but he more than gets the job done in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
The Lions’ running game
I can’t say enough about the Lions and the clear identity that runs through everything this team does. That was never more evident than during the winning drive in Week 11.
So often we see coordinators afraid to include even a single run in scattered, frantic, and often failed, potentially game-winning attempts. Ben Johnson happens to be pretty good at this acting business.
Johnson scored four runs in his winning 11-play drive. With David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs both at their backs. The runs occurred in high-leverage situations at short distances and on the goal line. It was a brilliant move, not only because the running backs and run game are one of the team’s clear strengths, but also because Jared Goff was a bit hectic and turnover-prone that day.
Ben Johnson will be the head coach next season. He will have earned this job many times over. Don’t forget Sunday Resume Builder Result. At a time when other coaches are forgetting about the running game because of time constraints, Johnson wasn’t afraid to be unconventional. That’s because his backfield duo is a rare driving force in the ground game. Smart coaches shape their approach based on the talents available to them. The Lions have some real talent that Johnson can lean on in the backfield.
Five things I don’t care about
Courtland Sutton’s touchdown regression
I’m not sure how to describe the Broncos right now as they’re coming off their fourth straight win. I rate myself somewhere close to “tastefully boring,” which may sound like an insult. But I bet Sean Payton and many others in the building would accept that description as long as it comes with wins, after how their season went a month and a half ago.
A Broncos player who lifts you out of your seat at least once a game and isn’t all that boring? Courtland Sutton.
The Regression Police have been mentioning Sutton on their “Most Wanted” posters for weeks. Sutton caught his eighth touchdown of the season on Sunday night. He rushed for 80 yards just once all season and scored more than six times just twice. I understand that there is something wrong with the math in this equation. However, we can admit that the fantasy industry has a difficult time weighing player performance in regression interviews.
Some boys simply put the math to the test with their own game.
You only have to look at Sutton’s touchdown catches over the last two weeks to see that these results are no coincidence. With skills in the contested catching game, such as his body control and comfort in tight coverage, he creates opportunities and efficiency where they shouldn’t exist.
Sutton was largely considered dead in fantasy drafts, a “well, I have to take someone here and he’s a starter” type pick after the seventh round. Meanwhile, his teammate Jerry Jeudy was catapulting up the boards for reasons that I increasingly found flimsy. He was punished excessively harshly for being the overrated one in 2021 – sorry to pat him on the back, but that was another prediction that I was on the right side of history – creating opportunities for smart drafters can create.
On an individual level, Sutton wasn’t as good as the Russell Wilson trade hype in 2021. Plus, he was never as bad as people saw him to be amid the extreme gap between his and Jeudy’s summer ADP. This year, Sutton has settled into a zone that matches his decent tape resume. He’s a solid starting NFL-X receiver who doesn’t separate cleanly enough at all levels to command dominant target share, but wins on break-in routes crucial to this offense and is a plus player on contested catches.
As the regression police build their case against Sutton, I’d argue he’s finally falling into reasonable territory for the first time in years – kudos to him for a really nice season.
The current status of the chargers
The Chargers had a golden opportunity with a win in Week 11 to make some headway in the AFC playoff race after the chaos that left the Bengals (Joe Burrow injury) and Bills (offensive coordinator firing) theoretically more talented than.
So it was all perfectly timed to a crushing late game defeat for the Chargers – the Chargers, as they often do, delivered and found a way to lose.
There is strong pressure inside the building. Things are starting to boil over in public. From the head coach’s point of view, this is not the most inspiring mood:
A frustrated Brandon Staley about whether he’ll keep calling #Charger Defense:
“You can stop asking that question. I’ll call the defense, okay? So are we clear? So you don’t have to ask that again.pic.twitter.com/6E2ySnEIrk
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 19, 2023
Which defense does Brandon Staley cling to? It’s a mess. The Packers had fits and starts all season, but enjoyed one of their best days against the Chargers. Jordan Love rushed for 300 yards, averaged 8.1 yards per attempt and completed 67.5% of his passes. The Packers’ ultra-young offense even lost its only veteran presence in Aaron Jones during the game. The Chargers remained generous.
There has never been a period during the Staley era where his side of the ball looked like an above-average unit. The further we get through the season, the worse things look.
The offense is the better side of the ball, but that’s not saying much. There are also large holes on this side, especially at the receiver site.
Injuries have wreaked havoc on the receiving end. That has freed up first-round receiver Quentin Johnston to score with Mike Williams and Josh Palmer out of the game. Even Jalen Guyton missed Week 11. And yet Johnston finished the game with two catches for 21 yards and an all-time low in the bottom third of the final drive:
He can’t get into the game, can’t win contested catches, and even if he does get a clean look, it’s not the first time he’s experienced a brutal fall like this. The Chargers essentially play with 10 players on offense when Johnston is out there. It’s tough, but that’s how bad things have gotten for the rookie receiver.
To make matters worse, he’s not the only player to make mistakes in big moments. Austin Ekeler lost a fumble and Keenan Allen dropped a pass in the end zone. Absolutely nothing works consistently on the Chargers’ offense.
Injuries are a convenient excuse, but when your best players make mistakes and the first-round rookie who should have helped you get to the top can’t make a single play, that’s a sign of deeper decline. The season isn’t over yet, but we’ve come to the end of the Staley era of Chargers football. It’s just a matter of getting to the point where ownership makes it official.
How the Bills beat the Jets
All that matters is that Buffalo did it.
The Jets are in complete chaos as their deja vu nightmare of a season continues. Zach Wilson was eventually benched, but Tim Boyle came in and offered a suspiciously similar statistic. The Bills won with ease and that’s really what matters for this team at this stage.
No style points; Just stack up wins to try and reach the postseason at the end.
However, we received a signal from the offensive to move forward. Buffalo saddled James Cook and Latavius Murray for 27 runs and successfully ran the ball. Cook totaled 73 yards with a long run of 12. He was a consistent force and scored a touchdown through the air. Reserve running back Ty Johnson was also involved in some big plays as a receiver. The running backs, who give the Bills some positive down and distance opportunities and keep the offense on schedule, can help alleviate the turnover problems.
While Gabe Davis didn’t score a single goal and Stefon Diggs remained silent, Dalton Kincaid continued to create short-term chances. Slot receiver Khalil Shakir was the one who made a big play down the field. He has been a positive player since entering the lineup.
This is all positive. The offense can’t have many low-rate shots on the volatile Davis and other players need to get behind Diggs. Separators like Shakir and Kincaid continuing to play important roles are non-negotiable for the offense to reach the potential we all know exists.
The Bills’ season is far from over. A coaching change may not have been the elixir to solve all problems. But we got a preview of some of the answers from Joe Brady and company. can dream up as the team races to the finish.
The Commanders 2023
Minority owner Magic Johnson gave the most factual review of the Commanders’ loss to the New York Giants in Week 11. Yes, the Tommy DeVito-led Giants:
That’s the general attitude I have towards this team right now. I’m not sure anything that happens in his games really matters for the future of this team. The home loss to the Giants is this team’s ultimate permission to stop taking them seriously.
Some have gone out of their way to praise this offense’s performance. I am not there. Sam Howell was just good enough to be frustrating. He is sometimes aggressive and leaves plays on the field. I can see him being a passable starter, but unless there is significant development, I can’t imagine the next front office and coaching staff heading into 2024 with him as the undisputed starter.
And make no mistake, there will be regime change. I can’t say I’ll miss this offense. If you have quality wideouts with significant investment, a phone book length target tree doesn’t make sense. And forget about fantasy for a second. I like all these wideouts; I don’t have them on every fantasy team or anything close to it. Good coaches design offenses that fit the talent on their roster.
If you believe Eric Bieniemy has done that in Washington this season, we have different teams to watch.
New Commanders’ owners initiated defense sales at the trade deadline. It won’t be the last big sweep. We can only hope that the next phase of this operation goes better than what we saw in 2023. This coaching staff had the opportunity and plenty of talent at their disposal to get the most out of their audition. If fate is still undecided, the loss to the current version of the Giants is the most damning evidence possible.
We can mentally continue until 2024.
Tony Pollard’s touchdown
Few people wanted to talk about it (understandable), but Tony Pollard was in a good position heading into Week 11. The upward trend emerged. Pollard found his way to the end zone with a wild run that may have helped him exorcise some frustrations. You were rewarded if you had the courage to play against him in fantasy football.
But the Week 11 results don’t do much to tip the scales going forward.
Aside from the score, his 12 runs for 61 yards and some receiving work are very similar to most of his other recent games since Mike McCarthy led this team entirely into a pass-first offense. And that’s not exactly a bad result either. That probably tells you that Pollard hasn’t played as poorly as his fantasy football results suggested, but also that his season isn’t going to suddenly take a turnaround now.
As I’ve said several times lately, Tony Pollard is currently in “it is what it is” territory when it comes to fantasy. He’s a solid defender, but not the engine of this offense. Dak Prescott and Co. didn’t have to lift much weight this week, but they are in control of the fate of this scoring unit. As a rusher, Pollard will just add some spice. Some weeks he makes it to the end zone, while others he doesn’t. That sounds boring and overly simple, but that is the reality of this situation.