Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings: Sleepers, Predictions, Starts, Seats | Zack Moss, Rashee Rice And More

With Jonathan Taylor out, Zack Moss steps back in, and we have some managers who need the Week 13 fantasy football rankings more than anyone thought. With six teams having a bye, the game previews and sleepers are even more important to ensure you win and advance to the fantasy playoffs.

Contents

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Week 13 Waivers | Week 13 SOS Ranks
Fantasy Football 101 (weather, lineups, trades, more)
My podcast – it’s just great!

WEEK 13 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW

** BYES: BAL, BUF, CHI, LV, MIN, NYG **

NOTE: ALL of the statistics are SINCE WEEK 7 – Unless known. This is because it makes sense to compare current performance to that throughout the year in terms of defense, etc., as things can change with in-season adjustments.

Acronyms

RBTouch% – RB Touch Percentage – Percentage of the team’s total RB touches this player had
TmTGT% – Team Goals Percentage – Percentage of the team’s total goals going to this player
TGT% – Percentage of time a player has as a goal while running routes
G2G and GL – Goal-to-Go (within the 10-yard line) and Goal-Line (within the 5-yard line)
TmAirYD% – Team Air Yards Percentage – Percentage of the team’s total air yards that go to this player
CPOE – Completion Percentage Above Expectation – Completion Percentage Allowed Considering Passage Difficulty (Depth, Coverage, etc.)
YPRR – Yards per Route Run – pretty valuable indicator
APA – Adjust Allowed Points (table link above)

Seahawks at Cowboys, TNF

With Kenneth Walker back, he’s a risky RB2 and Zach Charbonnet is an RB3 – James Conner is the only running back to top 69 rushing yards or 85 total yards against the Cowboys.
The Cowboys have the highest EPA/Play, EPA per dropback, points margin (+108) and TD/Drive% (43.1) as well as the second highest YD/Play (6.6 – 49ers at 6.9).
DK Metcalf averages 21.0 more YPR (37.3 to 16.3) when up 7+ versus down 7+ – Tyler Lockett is more game-script neutral at 3.0.

Colts at Titans, 1 p.m

Zack Moss is a top-15 option until Jonathan Taylor returns. In the three games Moss was active and before Taylor returned – plus two more after Taylor was active – Moss finished RB 10, 4, 21, 2, 9 – and he still finished 30, 14, 49 after that , 70, 31 .
In games with a rushing touchdown, Derrick Henry averages 22.0 FPPG compared to 7.4 FPPG in games without a rushing TD. The Colts have given up 11 RB rushing TDs (fifth-most).
Josh Downs was targeted on 28.1% of his routes, the 10th highest (at least 20 targets) – Michael Pittman is sixth at 30.2%.

Chargers at Patriots, 1 p.m

Demario Douglas has 23.5 TmTGT% (21st) and 27.0 TGT% (14th) – at least 20 goals.
If Douglas plays, he’s a must-see in a close week and a great matchup (one that helped Jordan Love get back on track in Week 11). If not, DeVante Parker is a risk-reward WR4.
When Joshua Palmer returns, he’ll be in play as the WR3 – unless he’s limited all week. Palmer is the best second option (if healthy), which would bring Jalen Guyton into the Hail Mary lineup. Without Palmer, Guyton is a WR4 with potential for more.
If you’re desperate for a tight end, Hunter Henry is a good choice as the Chargers have the highest TE APA (14.4).

Lions at Saints, 1 p.m

If Chris Olave plays, you start him. If he is out and Rashid Shaheed plays (unlikely), Shaheed would be a strong WR3. If both are out, AT Perry is a risk/reward WR3/4.
David Montgomery is averaging 4.3 yards after contact, behind only Keaton Mitchell (7.5) and Jaylen Warren (5.0) – Jahmyr Gibbs is 21st with 3.0. Montgomery and Gibbs are tied for first with 2.5 yards from contact.
Even with a bye, Alvin Kamara leads all running backs in targets (36), receptions (31) and receiving yards (269) – Rachaad White is sixth (29), second (27) and second (266).

Falcons at Jets, 1 p.m

Unsurprisingly, the Jets have the lowest WR APA (19.8 – CLE is second at 23.6).
Some of Breece Hall’s biggest runs have come with a touchdown or more, as he averages 3.0 more YPC when trailing by 7 or more compared to when trailing by 7+ (plus, the Jets haven’t had a touchdown all that often of 7+ in the plus).
As seen last week, the Falcons are willing to run when they are close or leading, and Bijan Robinson averages 1.7 more YPC when he is 7+ ahead (eighth-largest gap).
Garrett Wilson has the fourth-highest YPR gap when going 7+ versus 7 or more at 21.8.

Cardinals at Steelers, 1 p.m

When Michael Wilson finally returns, it will be a tough matchup, but he is worthy of WR4 competition. If he’s out in the bye, Greg Dortch will take his place with a little more risk.
It shouldn’t be a surprise, but many quarterbacks average more yards per dropback when trailing by 7 or more. Still, Kyler Murray is fourth best with 5.1 more YPD, while Kenny Pickett is the opposite, averaging 3.7 more YPD on a plus 7+ than on a minus 7 or more (third gap behind Zach Wilson and Desmond Ridder ).
Jaylen Warren has the most runs over 10 yards (14) and the second-highest percentage of those runs (23.7% – Keaton Mitchell is first at 24.1%). Najee Harris has nine, but it’s only 11.3% of his runs (22nd).

Dolphins at Commanders, 1 p.m

The Dolphins have the eighth-highest first-half point differential (+30), while the Commanders have the fifth-lowest (-62). This should lead to a pass-happy approach and sneaky value from Antonio Gibson.
The Commanders are APA’s top-rated QBs (26.1 – LAC is second with 23.8) and WRs (45.0 – LAC is second with 37.7).
If De’Von Achane returns, Raheem Mostert is still in the RB1 conversation against the Commanders, with Achane a quality RB2 player. If Achane is out, Mostert pushes into the top five and Jeff Wilson is an RB3.

Broncos at Texans, 1 p.m

Noah Brown is fighting to return, but if he does, you can play him as a high-risk/reward WR3/4. Brown led numerous wideout categories in Weeks 8-10.
The Texans allow the lowest YPC to opposing RBs (CAR, TB, CIN, ARI, JAX) at 3.13 – Dolphins are second at 3.24. Javonte Williams has an average YPC of 3.45 in his last four games (KC, BUF, MIN, CLE).
The Broncos have the sixth stingiest pass defense and second-fewest WR FPPG, but allow the highest YPC to RBs (5.14), the most missed tackles per attempt (0.26) and the highest RB APA (26.9).

Panthers at Buccaneers, 4 p.m

The Panthers have the lowest yards before contact at 0.46 (TEN is second lowest at 0.50 – DET is best at 2.16) and they also have the sixth highest pressure percentage allowed at 40.1.
The Buccaneers have allowed two running backs in the top 78 rushing yards (D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor). Taylor is the only one to score a rushing touchdown against them (two).
On the other hand, the Bucs have the highest pass YPG (304.5), the third highest YPA (8.62), the fifth highest QB FPPG (22.0), the third most WR FPPG (26.6) and the highest YPRR (1.86).

Browns at Rams, 4 p.m

If Amari Cooper plays, he remains a risky WR3, whether it’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson or PJ Walker. Elijah Moore would replace his WR3 value with a little less upside and a little more safety if Cooper is out, and Cedric Tillman would be a Hail Mary option.
The Browns have the most Plays/G (72.7 – WAS is second with 71.0), but are ninth lowest in TD/Drive% (15.8).
They are also strong against the pass, still with the lowest QB APA (12.4), but they are more vulnerable to the run, ranking 14th in FPPG (IND, SEA, ARI, BAL, PIT, DEN) .
Kyren Williams’ game log reads: RB7, 4, 26, 3, 30, 2, 1. He also averages 3.8 more yards per carry when the Rams are up by 7+ than when they are up by 7 or more are in the red (second largest swing compared to Justice Hill’s). 4.3).

49ers at Eagles, 4 p.m

The 49ers are allowing a league-high 43.6 pressure%, yet Brock Purdy has only been sacked once, and the Eagles are sixth-lowest in sack% per dropback (4.8 – Chiefs lead with 12.0).
If Dallas Goedert returns, he would crush DeVonta Smith and his recent success – Smith has 19.1 TmTGT%, 15.5 TGT%, and 27.3 TmAirYD% when Goedert is on the field, compared to 35.5%, 26th .7% and 53.4% without him – but… Goedert could be a tricky option as the 49ers have the second-lowest TE APA (7.4).
Smith also sees a TGT rate of 24.4% when trailing by 7 or more, compared to just 13.7% when the Eagles are ahead by more than 7 points.

Bosses at Packers, SNF

If Aaron Jones doesn’t return, AJ Dillon is a volume-dependent RB2 with Jayden Reed getting a boost in rush attempts. When Jones comes back, he’s a risk/reward RB2 and Dillon is a boring RB3.
Reed performs better when trailing by a touchdown, with a 10.6 higher YPR when trailing by 7 or more compared to when trailing by 7+ (12th largest when trailing).
Rashee Rice has 15.9 TmTGT% but just 9.7 TmAirYD%, while Justin Watson has 12.5% (second for Chiefs WRs) and 26.1% (first).

Bengals at Jaguars, MNF

The Bengals are allowing 13.7 YPR, a league high, with the Lions second at 13.0, while the Panthers (8.35) and Bears (8.81) are the two toughest.
Joe Mixon recorded a season-low 10 touches, eight rushes, 2.0 YPC and 7.0 FPs last week with Jake Browning.
The Jaguars allow the second-fewest RB FPPGs and only two RBs have completed a touchdown against them (Dameon Pierce Week 3, Zack Moss Week 6).

WEEK 13 FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPERS

These are sleeper (DuckTales and Darkwing Duck style – Woo-oo is worthy of risk in most leagues, and Dangerous is when you need a Hail Mary). You will not 100% imitate my ranking. This is about aiming for the upside and it often comes with a higher level of risk – to put it simply, they are upside plays that you might consider over a firm bottom option.

Woo-oo worthy

QB: Sam Howell, WSH
RB: Jaylen Warren, PIT; Jerome Ford, C.L.E
WR: Adam Thielen, CAR; Josh Downs, IND
TE: Juwan Johnson, NR

Let’s get dangerous

QB: Jared Goff, DET
RB: De’Von Achane, MIA (Jeff Wilson if Achane is out); Tyler Allgeier, ATL
WR: Jayden Reed, UK; George Pickens, PIT
TE: Tyler Conklin, NYJ

FUN WITH RANKINGS!

While eating some Thanksgiving leftovers, I thought, “I should have taken the time to slowly reheat the turkey with some gravy or something to keep it moist/better.” Oh, and those mashed potatoes will never be great again. So here we go with this week’s rankings…

The Worst Reheated Foods

Fish – especially in the microwave. There is a special place for people evil enough to do this in the workplace.

Shrimp – second only to fish – maybe even worse as the consistency is never the same.

French Fries – don’t listen to the “air fryer” people because fries are never as good twice.

Chinese – always seems like a good idea until you’re halfway through and somehow the temperatures are different, the meat is tough and the pieces of rice have become hard.

Vegetables – they all suck, but a special stepdaughter vote for Brussels sprouts being the worst of the worst.

Eggs – Are you risking salmonella for rubbery eggs when it only takes a minute to make fresh, delicious eggs? Come on.

Bacon – if you microwave it or re-grill it – who wants that overly chewy nonsense?

Mashed potatoes – they never heat up evenly, the consistency is off and there are now weird and cold lumps that weren’t there before.

Turkey – completely dried out and tough as a shoe when you try to microwave it.

Steak (and burgers) – most red meats don’t work in the microwave, and why should they? Similar to bacon, just reheat on a grill/flat top – but then burgers are almost garbage because the toppings and bun are ruined/soggy/etc. are.

Honorable Mention: Pancakes and French Toast

BEST: Anything Italian – pizza is king, especially because you can eat it cold anyway.

WEEK 13 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These may differ from my rankings and mine Ranks are the order in which I would start players outside of additional context, such as “Need the highest upside potential, even if it’s risky.” Also based on 4 point TDs for QB, 6 point break and half PPR

Projections download link