Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings: Sleepers, Predictions, Starts, Seats | Tyler Boyd, Joshua Palmer And More

The fantasy football playoffs are in full swing and no Christmas present is better than another win. Let's get to the Week 16 fantasy football rankings, the sleepers, and having fun with the best (and worst) things about Christmas – and let's try to spread the cheer.

Contents

#CheckTheLink age
Week 16 Waivers | Week 16 SOS (APA) Rankings
Fantasy Football 101 (weather, lineups, trades, more)
My all-in football podcast

WEEK 16 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEW

NOTE: ALL of the statistics are SINCE WEEK 10 – Unless known. This is because it makes sense to compare current performance to that throughout the year in terms of defense, etc., as things can change with in-season adjustments.

Acronyms you should know

RBTouch% – RB Touch Percentage – Percentage of the team's total RB touches this player had
TmTGT% – Team Goals Percentage – Percentage of the team's total goals going to this player
TGT% – Percentage of time a player has as a goal while running routes
YPRR – Yards per Route Run – pretty valuable indicator
APA – Adjust Allowed Points (table link above)

Saints at Rams, TNF

If Chris Olave can't go, Rashid Shaheed and AT Perry are WR4s with boom/bust potential.
The Rams and Dolphins have the highest forced 3-and-out percentage at 46.6.
As of Week 8, Puka Nacua's TmTGT% is 23.7 (WR18) with 10.4 FPPG (WR30) after 32.5 (WR4) and 15.3 (WR10) through Week 8.

Bengals at Steelers, Saturday, 4:30 p.m

Without Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins is a must, but given Jake Browning's style, Tyler Boyd would be a volume WR4 and Trenton Irwin would be a boom/bust WR4.
The Bengals are one of three teams whose games reached the over in five of the six games played – the Steelers are at 50% (3 of 6).
The Bengals have allowed an RB rushing touchdown in all but three games, and that would only be two if Zack Moss' run wasn't called back in Week 14.

Bills at Chargers, Saturday, 8:15 p.m

No Keenan Allen would lock Joshua Palmer into WR2 territory and make Quentin Johnston an interesting WR3/4.
Since Dorsey's firing (4 games), James Cook has a TmTGT% of 15.0, which is 6th among RBs. By week 10, on the 26th, it was only 8.4%.
Gabe Davis has six games with 1.6 points or fewer (four zeros) – only four other top-40 receivers have even two such games, and no top-40 WR has two zeros.

Colts at Falcons, 1 p.m

With Jonathan Taylor out and Zack Moss playing, he's an RB1/2 but riskier than usual due to the injury. If Moss is also out, Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson would be the best RB3 options at risk – both could lead, could be 50/50, etc.
The Falcons have a league-low 1.2% of pass attempts resulting in a touchdown (second lowest is the Dolphins at 1.7%).
The Falcons have a positive points advantage with Taylor Heinicke (replaced Desmond Ridder once and was injured in the third game) compared to -56 without.

Seahawks at Titans, 1 p.m

With Will Levis out and the Titans going with Ryan Tannehill, there are no real changes in skill players. When Malik Willis is under center, downgrade the passing game.
Kenneth Walker's 84.6 RBTouch% was his highest since Week 7 and his second-highest of the season.
While Derrick Henry only had a 66.7 RBTouch% in Week 15, he has six games with lower marks, but every game with at least 69.0% he scored 12.9+ points – D'Andre Swift had his highest RBTouch% against the Seahawks since his 18.2 point game in Week 11.

Lions at Vikings, 1 p.m

The Lions are strong against the run but have the second-easiest QB and third-easiest WR APAs.
If Alexander Mattison is out again, Ty Chandler is a top-20 RB.
Jordan Addison averages 10.8 FPPG with Justin Jefferson and 14.9 YD/Rec, 1.80 YPRR, 16.1 TD/TGT%, compared to 6.6, 12.3, 1.50 and 6, 7% without him.

Commanders at Jets, 1 p.m

If Brian Robinson doesn't return, Antonio Gibson is still an RB2/3 and Chris Rodriguez is a touchdown-praying RB4.
The Jets have the toughest QB and WR APAs, with the Panthers having the second toughest WR (3.8 PPG easier).
The Commanders allow a league-high 2.91 points per drive (PHI second, 2.70), a league-high 6.7 YD/Play and force the lowest percentage of 3-and-outs (24.1) .

Packers at Panthers, 1 p.m

Without Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks would be a nice WR3/4 piece. If just one of the two is out, Wicks is a Hail Mary WR5.
Regardless of whether quarterbacks start or not, it's crazy to see that the Panthers only allow nine rushing yards to QBs, with most having negative rushing yards – the second fewest QB rushing yards allowed are the Patriots at 116.
The Packers are allowing a league-high 5.4 YD/Rush, with ARI and DEN tied at 5.1.

Browns at Texans, 1 p.m

Amari Cooper has a TGT% of 25.7 and 11.0 FPPG with Joe Flacco compared to 21.7 and 8.0 FPPG with everyone else – David Njoku has 16.1 FPPG with Joe Flacco – that's seventh for WR/TE together.
Devin Singletary had a 90.9 RBTouch% last week. He has at least 10.2 points at 55%+ in every game except one (five of six).
The Browns lead the most in Cover-1 (38.7%) and Nico Collins is second in YPRR against Cover-1 (3.54 – Tyreek Hill 4.91) and Noah Brown is 10th with 2.76.

Jaguars at Buccaneers, 4 p.m

Evan Engram is one of those six players ahead of Njoku in FPPG over the last three weeks (16.8).
Mike Evans has just four games without a touchdown and just one since Week 10 – his only game without a 12.8+ point.
Since Week 9, only Christian McCaffrey (23.4) and Kyren Williams (22.2) have averaged more FPPG than Rachaad White (18.4).

Cardinals at Bears, 4 p.m

Regardless of whether Marquise Brown plays or not, it's impossible to trust the Cardinals' receivers other than Trey McBride…so yeah…no wideouts.
The Cardinals are allowing a touchdown rate of 8.2% per pass attempt, the highest in the league (Commanders are second at 8.0%).
The Bears defense continues to be a concern, posting its highest run-stuff percentage since Week 5 (52.6) and only having a single wide receiver exceed 77 yards since Week 2; Mike Evans (171) joins Amari Cooper (109 last week) as the only receivers to surpass that this season.

Cowboys at Dolphins, 4 p.m

Dolphins and Cowboys rank first and second in QB pressure % (47.5 and 45.5, respectively).
The Dolphins also allow the fewest points per drive (1.09), with the Patriots second (1.18), and the lowest YD/Play (4.1) second to the Bills (4.4).
Tony Pollard has only one game with more than one goal-line attempt since Week 2 (three in Week 10) and six games with zero attempts.

Patriots at Broncos, SNF

The Patriots are the stingiest in YD/Rush at 2.4, while the Dolphins are the second toughest at 3.3.
With Rhamondre Stevenson injured, only Kyren Williams has a higher RBTouch% (89.4) than Ezekiel Elliott (82.5), who also leads all running backs in TmTGT% (23.5).
The Broncos hadn't allowed a wideout to score in double figures from Weeks 5 to 12, then allowed Nico Collins 25.1 in Week 13 and Amon-Ra St. Brown 17.2 last week – each score of 13+ this year that a receiver scored 9+ targets.

Raiders at Chiefs, Monday, 1 p.m

If Josh Jacobs doesn't return, Zamir White is back in the game as the edge RB2, but poses more risk if they fall back since Brandon Bolden and Ameer Abdullah will be dealing with pass loss.
Before missing Weeks 14-15, Isiah Pacheco was RB14 in FPPG (13.1) with 4.4 YPC and 72.3 RBTouch% (sixth).
Over the last four weeks, Rashee Rice is WR5 with 16.4 FPPG and has 27.9 TmTGT%, while Travis Kelce is TE7 with 9.7 FPPG (21.3 TmTGT%).

Giants at Eagles, Monday, 4:30 p.m

The Giants are averaging a league-low 55.0 plays/g and scoring a touchdown on just 15.5% of their drives (seventh-worst).
Since Week 8, only the Colts and Rams have a lower RB Stuff% than the Eagles (39.6).
The Giants haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 5, and the only two to come close (98 each) and eclipse the 79-yard mark were Josh Jacobs and Stevenson on 26 and 21 carries, respectively.

Ravens at 49ers, Monday, 8:15 p.m

The 49ers lead in TD/Drive% with 40.6 (DAL second with 39.7), and the Ravens are eighth-highest with 16.4% allowed.
With Mark Andrews injured, Isaiah Likely is TE5 with 12.8 FPPG, ahead of TJ Hockenson (10.2), Travis Kelce (9.7) and others.
Zay Flowers has 1.55 YPRR against zone compared to 1.26 against man, while Odell Beckham has 1.86 and 2.66 – 49ers have the sixth-highest zone defense.

WEEK 16 FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPERS

These are sleeper (DuckTales and Darkwing Duck style – Woo-oo is worthy of risk in most leagues, and Dangerous is when you need a Hail Mary). You will not 100% imitate my ranking. This is about aiming for the upside and it often comes with a higher level of risk – to put it simply, they are upside plays that you might consider over a firm bottom option.

Woo-oo worthy

QB: Jared Goff, DET
RB: Chuba Hubbard, CAR; Kenneth Walker, SEA
WR: Noah Brown, HOU; Joshua Palmer, LAC
TE: Isaiah Likely, BAL

Let's get dangerous

QB: Nick Mullens, MIN
RB: Devin Singletary, HOU; Justice Hill, B.A.L
WR: Tyler Boyd, CIN; Curtis Samuel, W.S.H
TE: Kyle Pitts, ATL

FUN WITH RANKINGS!

LINK: History of the Merry Christmas Ranks

It's a Christmas bonanza! I think I've done everything possible for Christmas now…the best TV episodes, the best cookies, the best songs, the best movies and last year the WORST songs. I'm not sure if there's anything left. Maybe you have an idea? However, if you want to see all the lists, use #CheckTheLink to avoid word overload in that column. Merry Christmas and happy holidays everyone!

WEEK 16 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These may differ from my rankings and mine Ranks are the order in which I would start players outside of additional context, such as “Need the highest upside potential, even if it's risky.” Also based on 4 point TDs for QB, 6 point break and half PPR

Projections download link