Of all the exciting weeks in the NFL this 2022 season, Week 9 may have topped them all. Ten of 12 games completed in Week 9 were within a point (eight points or fewer) in the fourth quarter, with four teams (Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets) deficits of more than 10 points were able to compensate.
The Vikings, Jets, Los Angeles Chargers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers each had a game-winning result in the final two minutes of regulation. All of these games transformed wild divisional races across the league as fewer and fewer teams begin to stand out from the crowd.
All of this is set to unfold for a wild second half of the year, but first the Week 9 overreactions need to be addressed.
The Rams will miss the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: reality
Los Angeles bagged a win over Tampa Bay before Tom Brady could drive down the field and make six plays for 54 yards in 35 seconds. Brady threw the winning touchdown pass with nine seconds left.
That win would have kept the Rams level 4-4 with the Seattle Seahawks. Instead, Los Angeles is 3-5 and 10th in the NFC standings, 2.5 games behind the Seahawks in the NFC West.
Los Angeles isn’t dead in the water but has two games with the Seahawks and is slated to take on the Kansas City Chiefs and Chargers. A 2-2 draw against these teams may not be enough. The Rams will need a few teams ahead to collapse at this rate.
Geno Smith deserves a long-term extension in Seattle
Overreaction or reality: reality
Think it’s time to get serious about Geno Smith’s future with the Seahawks. After throwing Zaven Collins a pick-six to give the Arizona Cardinals a 14-10 lead in the third quarter, Smith, 32, led Seattle to touchdowns on his next three possessions – going 10 of 12 for 123 yards and a landing.
The Seahawks are 6-3 and Smith was excellent, completing 73.1% of his passes as an NFL leader and throwing for 2,199 yards with 15 touchdowns on just four interceptions — and a 107.2 passer rating (fourth in the NFL). Seattle has its quarterback for the foreseeable future — it’s Smith.
time to sign it.
Justin Fields will run for 1,000 yards this season
Overreaction or reality: reality
What Justin Fields did on the Bears offense as a sophomore (first year in Luke Getsy’s system) was remarkable. Not only has Fields evolved as a passer, he’s also emerging as the most dynamic running quarterback in the NFL.
Fields has 91 carries for 602 yards and four touchdowns in nine games for an average of 6.6 yards per carry. After Sunday’s NFL regular-season record for rushing yards by a quarterback in a game (178), Fields needs to rush an average of 56.9 yards per game to reach the 1,000-yard mark.
He’s averaging 66.9 yards per game, so Fields is on track to become the third quarterback to rush for 1,000 yards in a season.
Tyreek Hill will have 150 catches and 2,000 receiving yards
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
It doesn’t feel like Tyreek Hill is slowing down any time soon. Hill finished Sunday’s win over the Bears with seven catches for 143 yards and a touchdown to cross the 1,000-yard plateau in his ninth game. The Miami Dolphins wide receiver has 76 catches for 1,104 yards as of midyear — an average of 8.4 catches and 122.7 yards per game.
If Hill keeps up this insane pace, he’ll finish this year with 144 catches and 2,085 yards. Hill is on track for 2,000 receiving yards but will need to average 9.3 receiving yards per game for the rest of the year to get to 150.
The task is big, but if anyone can do it, it’s Hill.
The Eagles are the best team in the NFL
Overreaction or reality: reality
Philadelphia is the only team unbeaten in the NFL to sit atop the NFC East (a two-team division at 6-2) with an 8-0 record. The Eagles are a top-five team in points and yards per game and points and yards allowed per game. They didn’t lag behind in the second half and led by double digits in every game.
The teams that can challenge the Eagles for the best team title are the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs, but Buffalo were upset by the Jets on Sunday as Josh Allen had 42 passing yards. The Bills are also 2-7 in one-score games the last two seasons.
The Minnesota Vikings are 7-1 but the Eagles crushed them in Week 2. The Dallas Cowboys have two losses, including one against the Eagles. They’re a combined 13-3 – with two losses against Philadelphia.
At halftime, the Eagles are the best team.
The Dolphins win the AFC East
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
It’s hard to discredit what Miami is doing as the Dolphins are now 6-0 in games Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes this year. Tagovailoa is also a great player, leading the NFL with a 115.9 passer rating. Tagovailoa has completed 69.9% of his passes for 1,980 yards with 15 touchdowns for just three interceptions in his seven games.
Can the Dolphins win the division? Miami is third in the AFC East with a 6-3 record, with a head-to-head tiebreak against Buffalo and a head-to-head loss to New York. Both teams are a half game behind Buffalo for first place.
The Dolphins don’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon, but Miami needs to beat Buffalo at Orchard Park in December to win the division. Before that they have to beat the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Miami is a playoff team, but the Dolphins still have a long way to go to win the division.
The Vikings are the Eagles’ biggest rival in the NFC
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
Minnesota continues to win the close games, improving to 6-0 in one-score games this year. The Vikings have won six straight games with one possession and have a plus-33-point difference in the fourth quarter — so they’re late good at games.
Is Minnesota Philadelphia’s biggest challenger? The 7-1 record says yes, but the Vikings have also played three games in an NFC North that has a combined record of 8-18 (without them). Two of those games were one-score competitions.
Only one team to defeat the Vikings currently has a winning record, and that was the Miami Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa. Minnesota has four straight games against teams with upcoming winning records. Let’s see how good the Vikings are.
The Patriots are a playoff team
Overreaction or reality: overreaction
New England is 5-4 and bottom in the AFC East, showing just how challenging the division is. The Patriots sit a half-game behind the Chargers for last place in the playoffs before heading into their bye week.
Why can’t the Patriots make the playoffs? They have three straight games against teams with winning records and six of their last eight games are against teams with winning records. They play twice against the Bills and once again against the Dolphins – a team they find difficult to beat.
New England needs to be better on offense to compete with these teams, even if their defense and special teams are playoff caliber. The passing game has to come alive on the track.
Tom Brady can still play at a high level
Overreaction or reality: reality
Brady had his 55th career win on Sunday, breaking the most in NFL history with Peyton Manning. The Buccaneers quarterback finished 36 of 58 for 280 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions (79.7 rating).
Was the performance impressive? No, but Brady went 5 of 6 for 54 yards and a touchdown on a final drive that took 35 seconds to win the game in the final 44 seconds (and the incompetition was a tip).
Brady has completed 65.3% of his passes for 2,547 yards with 10 touchdowns on just one interception (90.5 rating) this season. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is 10.0 (the best in the NFL) and he has an NFL-leading 373 pass attempts without an interception (the second best in NFL history).
Is Brady the same quarterback he’s been for the last two seasons? No, but he still plays well for a 45-year-old quarterback. He can still win games for his team.