Weekend Box Office: THE FLASH ($55.1M), ELEMENTAL ($29.5M), THE BLACKENING ($6.0M), all open under lowest forecasts – Boxoffice – Boxoffice Pro

Credits: Warner Bros. (“The Flash”); Disney & Pixar (“Elemental”); Lionsgate (“The Blackening”)

The Lightning

Warner Brothers’ Superhero Crossover didn’t exactly hit the ground running with $55.1 million in prize money for first place.

That’s even under the lowest end of Boxoffice PRO’s pre-release guidance range: $60 million to $80 million.

It also starts below a few other DC Extended Universe titles that were expected to perform comparable or even better:

• -41% below 2017’s Justice League, which also featured the Flash character ($93.8 million)
• -18% below 2018’s Aquaman ($67.8M)
• -17% below 2022 Black Adam ($67.0M)

At least it opened +2% above the 2019 Shazam! ($53.5 million).

And that doesn’t even compare to several $100+ million openings from the DC Extended Universe titles released in the mid-2010s, such as:

• -66% under Batman v. 2016’s Superman: Dawn of Justice ($166.0M)
• -58% below 2016’s Suicide Squad ($133.6M)
• -52% below 2013 Man of Steel ($116.6M)
• -46% below 2017’s Wonder Woman ($103.2M)

Despite initial hopes in the acclaimed first trailer that the film could achieve a “Marvel-level” opening film, it also started well below the two previous releases of the Marvel Cinematic Universe 2023:

• -48% on February’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($106.1M)
• -53% below May’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($118.4M)

audience demographics

Flash received a “B” CinemaScore, below the “B+” for the two most recent DC Extended Universe films: Black Adam and March’s Shazam!: Fury of the Gods.

Premium formats accounted for 40% of Flash’s openings, ahead of Fury of the Gods (36%) and Black Adam (33%).

The Flash audience was 63% male, slightly up from last weekend’s Rise of the Beasts (62%).

The audience was also 70% over the age of 25, significantly older than Beasts’ 51%. (No doubt the return of 1980s Batman: Michael Keaton helped.)

Overseas / Global

Flash opened for $75.0 million overseas and $139.0 million worldwide.

This global opening is less than:

• -2% below Black Adam ($142.9M)

• -38% below Quantumania ($225.3M)

• -51% below Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($289.3M)

The top five foreign market numbers for Flash are:

To read Box Office PRO‘s interview with The Lightning Filmmaking siblings Andy (director) and Barbara (producer) Musketti, here:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/run-dont-walk-the-flash-speeds-to-the-big-screen/

Elementary

The Disney/Pixar animated original was not a huge hit, with a $29.5 million debut in second place.

That didn’t even hit the low end of Boxoffice PRO’s pre-release weekend forecast of $31-41 million.

It’s also the second-worst Pixar opening of all time, just ahead of 1995’s Toy Story, which was Pixar’s first feature film before they established themselves as a famous brand.

Compared to the other Pixar films with the lowest opening, Elemental started:

• +1% on 1995’s Toy Story, Pixar’s first feature film ($29.1 million)
• -11% below 1998’s “A Bug’s Life” ($33.2M)
• -24% below 2015’s The Good Dinosaur (also $39.1M)
• -24% below early March 2020 ($39.1 million)

audience demographics

Is there a chance that the film can hold up well in the coming weeks despite starting low? After all, the film was rated an “A” on CinemaScore, which is above the “A-” of Pixar’s two most recent theatrical releases: Onward and Lightyear.

Elemental’s audience was 63% female, significantly more than Onward (52%) and Lightyear (48%).

Audiences were also 45% over the age of 25, slightly fewer than Lightyear (46%) and less quiet than Onward (51%).

Overseas / Global

Elemental opened with $15.0 million overseas and $44.5 million worldwide.

That’s well below the global openings of Pixar’s two most recent theatrical releases:

• -34% below Forward ($68.0M)

• -48% below Lightyear ($85.6M)

Elemental’s top four foreign market numbers are:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Last weekend, Sony’s animated superhero sequel surpassed the final domestic total of its 2018 predecessor after just two frames.

And on rare occasions, it may have finished second over the weekend, but held up so well last Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday that it finished first for the week.

Now in its third weekend, it falls -50% to $27.8 million and ranks third.

Among all films he received the following award:

• Opening #52 ($120.6M)
• #53 second weekend ($55.5M)
• #79 third weekend ($27.8M)

In particular, among the animated films, it has received the following distinction:

• #8 Opening
• #11 second weekend
• #22 third weekend

With a total value of $225.5M so far, it has earned +18% more than the last total of $190.1M for its 2018 predecessor, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse , and 2.1 times as much by the same time of publication.

However, compared to some other important comparison films of recent years, the title does not hold up as hoped:

Overseas / Global

Across the Spider-Verse has earned $209.0 million overseas and $479.2 million worldwide.

It’s already +27% above its predecessor’s final worldwide total of $375.4 million.

Additionally, the company generates a majority of its revenue (56%) domestically, which is unusual for such a blockbuster title. (Though that could change by the end of the theatrical run.)

The five largest foreign market figures for Across are:

Although Across has surpassed its predecessor globally, it probably won’t match Into’s $61.9 million price tag in China a few years ago.

To read Box Office PRO‘s interview with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Co-director Kemp Powers here:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/spider-man-across-the-spider-verse-co-director-kemp-powers-on-miles-morales-inter-dimensional-journey/

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Last weekend, Paramount’s sci-fi action prequel “climbed” to number one at $61.0 million. That’s even higher than the high end of Boxoffice PRO’s pre-release forecast range: $46 million to $56 million.

On rare occasions, however, the film lost so many orders on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday that while it finished at No. 1 over the weekend, it only finished at No. 2 during the week.

Now its second weekend, it’s down 67% to $20.0 million, putting it in fourth place.

That’s the biggest second-weekend slump of any Transformers movie, including the spinoff. Listed here from mildest to steepest:

• Bumblebee 2018 (-37% after initially falling just -3% over Christmas weekend)
• Transformers 2007 (-47%)
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon 2011 (-52%)
• Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen 2009 (-61%)
• Transformers: The Last Knight 2017 (-62%)
• Transformers: Era of Extinction 2014 (-63%)

With $100.6 million domestically to date, “Rise” is doing worse than any other installment in the Transformers sequel up to the same time of release.

For example, while it started above 2017’s The Last Knight, it now runs to the same point in the release behind it:

Overseas / Global

Rise has earned $174.3 million overseas and $274.9 million worldwide.

It seems almost certain that the grand totals of the two previous installments will not be reached:

• 2018’s “Bumblebee” ($465.1 million)
• The Last Knight 2017 ($602.8 million)

And it won’t even come close to matching the previous two installments, 2011’s Dark of the Moon and 2014’s Age of Extinction, both of which grossed more than $1 billion worldwide.

Rise has also earned $60.6 million in China. It might not even reach half of the Chinese totals:

• Bumblebee ($170.8M)
• Knight ($228.8M)

Overseas currently accounts for 63% of Rise’s total global volume, significantly less than Bumblebee (72%) or The Last Knight (78%).

The five largest foreign market figures for Rise are:

To read Box Office PRO‘s interview with Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Co-director Kemp Powers here:

SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE Co-Director Kemp Powers on Miles Morales’ Inter-dimensional Journey

To read Box Office PRO‘s “Boxoffice Rewind” feature on the financial history of the transformers franchise, here:

Boxoffice Rewind: A Box Office History of the TRANSFORMERS Franchise

The little mermaid

Disney’s live-action musical remake, now in its fourth season, falls -49% to $11.6 million and ranks fifth.

With a combined gross of $253.5 million to date, the film holds up better than some other comparable Disney films up to the same time of release, but lags behind others.

For example, while it opened up about 2019’s Aladdin, it now runs to the same point in the post behind it:

Overseas / Global

Mermaid has earned $212.4 million overseas and $466.0 million worldwide.

It looks like the company will end up with only about half or less than half of the global profits from the following:

• Beauty and the Beast 2017 ($1.26 billion)
• 2019’s Aladdin ($1.05 billion)
• Alice in Wonderland 2010 ($1.02 billion)
• The Jungle Book 2016 ($967.7 million)
• 2019’s The Lion King ($968.5 million)

The top five foreign market figures for Mermaid are:

The Blackening

The Lionsgate horror comedy made a $6.0 million debut at sixth place this weekend in June.

That missed even the lowest end of Boxoffice PRO’s pre-release forecast range: $7 million to $12 million.

One factor that hurts: It’s running in a modest 1,775 theaters, less than half the biggest releases on the market.

Compared to some other similar horror comedies of the past decade, Blackening opened:

• -32% below 2014’s A Haunted House 2 ($8.8M)
• -25% below Renfield in April ($8.0m)
• +12% on 2016’s “Pride and Prejudice” and “Zombies” ($5.3M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3

In the seventh frame, Disney and Marvel Studios’ superhero sequel drops -31% to $5.0 million and ranks seventh.

After the first four weekends lagged behind those of its predecessor “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2017”. 2, its fifth and sixth frames are actually higher or about the same height:

The film compares favorably to several other comparable Marvel Cinematic Universe titles.

For example, while it started below 2022’s “Thor: Love and Thunder,” it now predates the release to the same point:

Overseas / Global

Vol. 3 has earned $476.5 million overseas and $820.9 million worldwide.

Global, Vol. 3 is already +6% above the final total price of the original ($770.8 million), although it will prove less likely to match the sequel ($869.0 million).

Specifically in China, Vol. 3 has earned $86.6 million. This weekend, it surpasses China’s first-rate earnings ($86.3 million). However, it’s unlikely to reach the sequel’s $99.3 million.

The totals for the five overseas markets are:

The black man

The 20th Century Studios horror film, now in its third frame, falls -46% to $3.8 million and ranks eighth.

With a total value of $32.7 million by its release date, it compares well to some of the other Stephen King horror adaptations of the last decade.

For example, while it started under both 2019’s “Doctor Sleep” and 2013’s “Carrie,” it’s now over the same point in the release before both:

Overseas / Global

Boogeyman has earned $18.6 million overseas and $51.4 million worldwide.

The five largest foreign markets are:

While it’s doing well domestically, it’s unlikely to match the global totals of other Stephen King adaptations over the last decade:

• Pet Cemetery 2019 ($111.8 million)
• 2013’s “Carrie” ($82.4 million)
• Doctor Sleep 2019 ($71.7 million)

Fast X

Universal’s action sequels are now in their fifth installment, falling 61% to ninth place at $2.0 million.

At $142.4 million domestically to date, the film isn’t holding up as well compared to some of the earlier installments by its release date.

For example, while it opened above 2019’s “Hobbs & Shaw,” it now lags behind to the same point in the release:

Overseas / Global

Fast X has earned $534.2 million overseas and $676.6 million worldwide.

It seems almost certain that it won’t match the combined totals of F9 ($726.2 million) and Hobbs & Shaw ($760.7 million).

Nearly

The five largest foreign market figures for Fast X are:

To read Box Office PRO‘s “Boxoffice Rewind” feature on the financial history of the Fast and the Furious franchise, here:

Boxoffice Rewind: A Box Office History of THE FAST AND THE FURIOUS Franchise

asteroid city

Focus Features’ Wes Anderson comedy opened in tenth place with $790,000 and had a limited release in six theaters in New York City and Los Angeles.

Averaging $132,211 per theater, the film ranks No. 15 all-time, its highest since La La Land in 2016 ($176,220, No. 10 all-time).

However, it’s still not even the best Wes Anderson opening average per theater, ranking slightly behind 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel ($202,791, #9 all-time).

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

In frame 11, Universal’s animated video game adaptation plummets 74% to $590,000, finally ending up outside of the weekend’s top 10.

With $572.1 million domestically to date, Mario is the #14 film and #2 animated film of all time, behind only 2018’s The Incredibles 2 ($608.5 million ).

With $754.6 million abroad and $1.32 billion worldwide, Mario is the No. 18 film worldwide and No. 3 animated film of all time, behind only 2019’s The Lion King (Jan $.66 billion) and 2019’s “Frozen II” ($1.45 billion).

weekend comparisons

Total box office earnings this weekend were around $163.1 million, meaning:

YTD comparisons

Year-to-date box office earnings are approximately $4.07 billion, which means:

top dealer

Disney retook the lead from Universal last weekend. Universal and Disney are number one and two, more than twice as many as everyone else.

Grouped by parent company, the year-to-date leaders are:

Estimates for the studio weekend on Sunday: