In recent weeks there has been a lot of talk about Nikki Haley, the only Republican candidate in the Republican primaries for the United States presidential election: her campaign is gaining momentum, so much so that many observers are calling her the best and most credible alternative to former President Donald Trump, who is still largely in favor.
Haley announced her candidacy in February 2023, but initially no one considered her to be particularly threatening to the election, neither for Trump nor for Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, who for months was considered Trump's main opponent in the party. However, DeSantis' campaign never got off the ground and, in fact, appears to be on the verge of ultimate failure. Haley, on the other hand, has some chance of staying in the race and turning a seemingly obvious primary into a real contest.
– Also read: Ron DeSantis' candidacy is in crisis
Haley has had a long career in the Republican Party: She served as governor of South Carolina for two terms between 2011 and 2017 and then as ambassador to the United Nations during the years of Trump's presidency between 2017 and 2018. She is undoubtedly a conservative candidate, but compared to Trump, she is seen by many as an almost “calming” alternative: although she was part of the Trump administration, she is seen as a representative of the party establishment, even if she tries not to antagonize the more radical component Electorate. All Republican voices worried about a possible new mandate for Trump, whose rhetoric has become increasingly radical and fascist this campaign, could agree with her.
Meeting voters in Iowa (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
The Republican primary begins Jan. 15 in Iowa, a Midwestern state, before continuing Jan. 23 in New Hampshire in the northeast. The calendar could help Haley establish himself as a credible alternative: In Iowa, Trump's victory in the primaries seems a given, and Haley's goal is to finish second and overtake DeSantis. In New Hampshire, conditions are more favorable for Haley, who polls show has nearly 30 percent of the vote, versus 41 percent for Trump and just 6 percent for DeSantis.
There are several factors that could favor Haley in New Hampshire, starting with demographics: it is one of the richest states in the country, its electorate is particularly moderate, and there are many people with degrees (39 percent), a sector of the population in which Trump's approval rating is lower. In December, popular Gov. Chris Sununu publicly declared his support for Haley, giving her campaign a major boost.
Recently, his candidacy was also strengthened by the withdrawal of former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie from the primary: polls showed him with 12 percent of the preferences in New Hampshire, and many could choose to fall back on Haley, often as a second choice Choice specified. In addition, the state's primary election regulations also allow voting for so-called “unaffiliated” voters, i.e. voters who are not officially registered with the party. Analysts say even those who don't identify as Republicans may decide to vote “against Trump” and choose the most credible person as an opponent: Haley.
The ideal scenario for Haley would be to finish a strong second in Iowa, perhaps keep Trump below the 50 percent vote threshold, and then beat him or at least come very close to him in New Hampshire. At that point, his candidacy would continue to gain strength, while DeSantis's would risk being permanently dismantled.
The third state to vote on February 24th is South Carolina, where Haley is well-known thanks to her two terms as governor. Trump currently has a big lead, but Haley's past could help her.
The latest TV confrontation with Ron DeSantis (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
The three primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are just the beginning of a long electoral journey that officially ends with the Republican National Convention in July, where the name of the presidential candidate will be officially announced. Despite the large media coverage they typically receive, the three states where the primaries begin are relatively small and not very influential. An important date to keep an eye on will be March 5, the so-called Super Tuesday, when voting will take place simultaneously in 15 states and the final results will become much clearer.
The path remains uphill for Haley, however: Disappointing results in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina could all but end the game not just for her but for all of Trump's opponents.
From 2016 to the present, Haley has changed her opinion of Trump many times, from an opponent to a loyal supporter, to the cautious stance she took during this campaign, in which, paradoxically, even Trump's primary opponents have rarely attacked him and praised him more often . for fear of displeasing the party's bitter base, which identifies with the so-called MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement, which is close to Trump.
Haley has, among other things, promised to pardon Trump if she is elected, effectively reversing the consequences of the many ongoing lawsuits in which he is involved, and has not ruled out running for vice president if she does Trump wins the primaries instead. It wasn't until the last televised Republican debate on January 11 (which Trump left, as he has always done this campaign), that Haley attacked his actions more openly, saying, for example: “Right or wrong, [Trump] brings chaos.”
– Also read: Nikki Haley has changed her mind about Trump many times
It also seems unlikely that Haley's image fits with the evolution of the Republican Party in recent years. She comes from an immigrant family from India's Punjab region, and Haley is her husband Michael's surname: she was born Nimrata Nikki Randhawa in 1972 in Bamberg, South Carolina, a name by which she is still called today by her opponents and opponents the right. The qualities that made her particularly promising at the start of her career – she is a woman, the daughter of immigrants and non-white – could weaken her today in a conservative front that has become particularly radicalized and openly espouses racist and misogynistic positions.
Trump and Haley at the United Nations in 2018 (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Her political ideas instead align with the conservatism of the Republican Party, particularly on civil rights issues: she is opposed to abortion, opposed to extending new rights to the LGBTQ+ community, a supporter of the so-called traditional family and the freedom to bear arms. She takes more traditional and reassuring positions on foreign policy (she is among the staunchest supporters within the party of military aid to Ukraine), but she found herself at the center of a major controversy when, a few days after Christmas, she answered a question from a voter about the Speaking about the causes of the American Civil War, he forgot to mention the main reason: slavery. Haley later apologized.
Some campaign ads from the committee supporting Trump's campaign have begun attacking her by claiming her economic decisions will lead to higher taxes and raising the retirement age, but at least for now, the Republican primary doesn't seem particularly focused on substance and concrete suggestions, but also about Trump's figure and possible alternatives to a candidate who is facing four criminal trials.
If Haley can present himself as “right-leaning enough” to convince the base most motivated to turn out in the primaries, but also “safe enough” to convince moderates and donors who are afraid of the extremism and the former president's unpredictability, she will be able to try to become a real opponent for Trump. However, this requires political and balancing skills that not everyone recognizes. On the day he withdrew his candidacy, Christie was captured in a message saying of her, “She will be swept away, you and I both know that.” It's not up to date.