War between Ukraine and Russia: Experts say the war cannot be won on the battlefield
Some experts say the war in Ukraine cannot be won on the battlefield. Here’s what that means.
Just the FAQs, USA TODAY
Congress is haggling over funding for the Ukraine war and one of Kiev’s staunchest allies saw a pro-Russian political party take the top prize in the recent parliamentary election as the brutal conflict rages on with no end in sight.
President Joe Biden and the State Department on Tuesday vowed “unwavering support” for Ukraine and EU Rep. Josep Borrell affirmed the bloc’s “unwavering support” for the Kiev government with military and humanitarian aid as well as efforts to join the EU.
But is the unwavering support wavering?
“It may well be that people are tired of war and bad news, and that reaction is reasonable,” said Mary Kate Schneider, director of global studies at Loyola University Maryland.
Schneider says the real challenge will come when the U.S. faces another serious national security threat. Russia is betting that Western support for Ukraine is waning, but Russia winning the war would “encourage other actors who reject a rules-based international order in favor of a ‘might makes right’ international order.” reject,” she said.
Steven Myers, an Air Force veteran who served on the State Department’s Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy under two secretaries of state, says the war was never winnable and that the Russian strategy is working. Ukraine is “reduced to pinpricks” that have no strategic relevance, he said.
The U.S. would ultimately provide modest support, such as training Ukrainian F-16 pilots for a defensive role “to pretend to protect western Ukraine” while Russia continues to advance in the east, Myers said.
“How much money and how much political will should the world spend on a cause that was irrational to begin with?” Myers said. “Congress’s action is a signal to the world that we are almost done.”
Will the war in Ukraine last until 2025? Russia suggests it is prepared for a prolonged conflict
Ukraine’s funding is a “plaything for American politicians”
State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said at a briefing Monday that the vast majority of available funding for Ukraine was forfeited because aid was removed from the emergency government-maintaining funding measure approved by Congress. The Pentagon said in a letter to Congress obtained by The Associated Press that $1.6 billion of the $25.9 billion remained to replenish military supplies.
The administration “continues to work to figure out” what can be provided to Ukraine, but Congress must quickly approve the funding, Miller said.
Most experts agree that the ongoing solution will not pose a serious problem for Ukraine in the short term. Schneider called it a political stumbling block, but added that U.S. support for Ukraine would continue for the foreseeable future. The amount of money involved is modest compared to other U.S. spending, and Ukraine remains critical to U.S. national interests, she said.
“Ukraine is an easy political football for American politicians because we are hardly directly involved,” she said. “There are no US troops to support and Russia is not threatening to invade.”
In the longer term, however, Ukraine could become embroiled in partisan political disputes in Congress and become “another wedge issue” for the far right, says Jeff Levine, a former U.S. ambassador to troubled Russian neighbor Estonia. The Republican Party, which stood for strong national defense and a willingness to confront Russia, has mutated under Donald Trump, whose supporters favor appeasement, Levine said.
“Democrats and sensible Republicans have the votes necessary to continue U.S. support for Ukraine,” Levine said. “But the far right is working hard to prevent cooperation.”
Miller said strong majorities in both houses of Congress support continued support. That means supporting them with immediate needs and then helping Ukraine rebuild its devastated cities with a democratic government integrated into Europe, he said.
“We cannot allow American support for Ukraine to be interrupted under any circumstances,” Miller said. “Our allies, our adversaries and the world will be watching.”
Myers believes claims by President Joe Biden and several congressional leaders that most Americans support the U.S. position on Ukraine are “complete nonsense.”
Americans care far more about inflation, a lackluster stock market and the high cost of fuel and food, which have led to a decline in median net household income, he said. They are concerned about border security, crime and quality education, he said.
“And yet, what are they hearing from both Democrats and Republicans in the Senate? That the most important priority is to fund Ukraine to protect us from the evil empire of Russia with a New Jersey GDP,” Myers said. “You’re completely deaf.”
President’s Promise: Biden vows to support Ukraine after bill cuts funding
The pro-Russian party that won parliamentary elections in Slovakia is likely to nominate a new prime minister who has promised to cut off aid to Ukraine. Robert Fico, a former prime minister, has vowed to block Ukraine’s membership in NATO, questioned Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russia and pushed for a negotiated solution to the 19-month war.
Myers said countries like Slovakia need to guard against the day when they have to normalize their relations with Russia.
“That’s the smart game. They know how to read a map,” Myers said. “The US and NATO had no strategy to win, and now, after 18 months of failure on every count, they can’t even get Congress to fund the war.”
Slovakia is not the first NATO ally to clash with Kiev. Poland, Ukraine’s staunchest European supporter and home to about a million Ukrainian refugees, is at odds with Kiev over grain shipments. Hungary’s Viktor Orban has pushed back against sanctions, war funding and efforts to speed up Ukraine’s EU membership.
Levine calls Hungary and Slovakia outliers and says he sees no fundamental change in European support. As long as the major European powers “remain stable, support will continue.” But the problems show that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky must show gratitude and “acknowledge the political price that some of his supporters are paying.”
“Winter slows the pace of operations and gives the defender an advantage,” said Zev Faintuch, senior intelligence analyst at Global Guardian, a security firm with a presence in Ukraine. Russia is trying to repel Ukraine’s counteroffensive and keep the territory captured in the first months of the war.
“Right now the aim is to reach or land at Melitopol or any point near the Sea of Azov,” Faintuch said. Ukraine is pushing forward in three locations, “but in our view, the disruption of Russia’s communications is the only one that will tip the scale strategically and make the domestic political case for Ukraine’s benefactors to further double their support at this level.” “
Russian mines and trenches could have limited the value of expensive Western-supplied armaments, he said. Artillery was crucial for both sides, but the burn rate was “unsustainably high,” he said. Russia is asking favors from its friends — like Iran and North Korea — to stock up on artillery shells and tubes, as well as cheap drones and missiles.
“If Ukraine does not achieve strategic successes soon, time will be its greatest enemy as the likelihood of a frozen conflict increases,” Faintuch said.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said he expects the war to last at least until 2025. Levine would not predict how or when the war would end, but said that Russian leader Vladimir Putin cannot emerge from the war on his own terms if Ukraine is willing to continue to face unrelenting hardship.
Schneider says the war will continue until a third party can persuade both countries to negotiate – or one of the combatants overwhelms the other before that can happen.
Myers believes that Russia has no interest in Ukrainian territory west of the Dnipro River. There are two possible outcomes for the war, he says: a new Cold War that could last indefinitely, or a meeting between the US president and Putin to resolve the conflict.
“The conditions for the West will of course be much worse than if the West had negotiated in good faith before the war began,” Myers said.