It is not Russia, but Ukraine and the West are to blame for the war in Ukraine, is Fico’s narrative about the war in Ukraine. During the election campaign, he criticized Western sanctions against Russia and announced that he would stop military support for Ukraine. Slovakia was the first country to supply Ukraine with anti-aircraft missiles and fighter jets.
With these statements, the former prime minister challenges the unity of the EU and NATO when it comes to Ukraine policy. So far, only Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has opposed the EU and NATO position on Ukraine. The elections will decide not only who governs the country of 5.4 million people, but also whether resistance to aid to Ukraine, which is currently limited to the political fringes of Europe, will prevail among the broad masses of the “New York Times” (“New York Times” (“ NYT”).
Pro-Russian camp vs. pro-European camp
In Slovakia there are two opposing camps. On the one hand, there are nationalist groups, supported by Ficos Smer, who blame the West for the war because Russia’s security interests were ignored. On the other side is the liberal party Progresivne Slovensko (PS), chaired by Michal Simecka, currently in second place in the polls, the current interim civil service government and some smaller parties. They condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a violation of international law.
Portal/Radovan Stoklasa Robert Fico wants to return to power with pro-Russian and nationalist rhetoric
According to research, the nationalist camp may have strengthened. 51 percent of Slovaks believe that the West or Ukraine are responsible for the war in Ukraine, according to a survey carried out in the spring by the NGO GLOBSEC. According to the June Eurobarometer, support for providing financial aid to Ukraine is also significantly lower in Slovakia, at 54 percent, than the EU average of 75 percent. According to a survey carried out by the daily newspaper “Dennik N”, 30 percent of Slovaks would have no objection to returning to Russia’s sphere of influence.
Fico promises order and authority
Fico sat in this political vacuum with his nationalist and right-wing populist rhetoric. His offer of authority and promise of order, as well as his pro-Russian turn, are finding fertile ground in Slovakia after years of instability. Pro-European governments were in power between 2020 and 2023. However, this era was characterized by frequent changes of government members, chaos and disunity. Since May, Slovakia has been led on an interim basis by a government of civil servants.
Fico had to resign at the start of his third term in 2018 – as a result of the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak. He researched corruption and illegal activities related to Fico’s Smer party. Few of the consequences are now noticeable. The then police chief Tibor Gaspar also had to leave in 2018, but he is an important Smer candidate for the next elections, although he was temporarily arrested in August on charges of corruption.
Russia wants to “divide Europe”
Russia benefits from this state of mind and, according to observers, has also contributed to it. “Slovakia is a great success story due to its propaganda (from Russia, note). I have worked hard and very successfully to use my country as a wedge to divide Europe,” former Slovak Foreign Minister Rastislav Kacer told the NYT.
These efforts have received support from the popular anti-American news site Hlavne Spravy and the biker group Brat za Brata (Brother to Brother), which is close to the Kremlin-backed Night Wolves biker gang. According to media reports, members of Brat za Brata have repeatedly attempted to specifically intimidate critics of Russia. Furthermore, Smer relies less on traditional mass media and instead spreads his messages primarily through Facebook, Instagram and Internet media outlets, where conspiracy theories and pro-Russian perspectives dominate.
Slovakia as a possible “troublemaker”
However, it is still unclear how Fico would actually implement the statements and announcements he made during the election campaign regarding Ukraine if he were to win the elections. During his last three terms, Fico went back on some campaign statements, analyzes Slovak expert Alena Kudzko for the think tank Carnegie Europe. There is a possibility that Fico will take a pragmatic course and join the European mainstream in foreign policy, as long as his domestic political interests are protected.
What remains is that “the Slovak government could become a troublemaker, ready to veto, prolong discussions and deeply obstruct foreign policy decisions (…)”. This is particularly a problem if the future government coalition depends on the votes of nationalist and right-wing parties.
Foreign policy could serve as a bargaining chip for more room for reform in the judicial system, the media and civil society institutions, Kudzko said. EU foreign policy decisions normally require unanimity. This means that even small countries like Slovakia have influence in the EU.
Portal/Radovan Stoklasa The liberal PS led by Michal Simecka is in second place in the polls
Election campaign leaves its mark
The chances of Fico coming first with his party in the elections are great. But like his political opponents, the liberal PS, which was ranked as the second strongest party in the polls, he would need coalition partners.
Whichever coalition wins the government, the electoral campaign will continue to leave its mark even after the elections. The skeptical mood towards the West, the open attitude towards Russia and the polarization regarding migration and minority rights among the population were further consolidated by the months-long election campaign.