caption,
Refugees who fled the war in Sudan in May this year; The crisis in the country is one of the worst in the world
Item information
The world is becoming a more violent place than at the beginning of this century and is expected to see at least eight major wars and dozens of armed conflicts over territory or governments by the end of 2023, researchers warn.
In addition to the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which has claimed thousands of lives since October 7, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which will last for two years in February 2024, there are currently largescale armed conflicts in Burkina Faso, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Myanmar, Nigeria and Syria.
“It is safe to say that there will be at least eight wars, but probably more and possibly ten (by the end of the year),” says Therese Petterson, coordinator of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), a Swedish project that researches, organizes and publishes verified data on conflicts and is used as a reference by UN bodies, the World Bank and other international organizations.
There are different interpretations of the definition of wars and conflicts. One of the most widely used parameters used by the UCDP and international study groups on war and peace uses the number of deaths as a parameter and defines wars as conflicts that result in at least a thousand deaths in battles per year.
Armed conflicts are disputes over territories or governments in which at least 25 people die in fighting each year.
“The number of conflicts has increased and combatrelated deaths have increased by 97% in 2022 alone, with an increase of more than 400% since the early 2000s,” Magnus Öberg, director of UCDP, told BBC News Brazil .
The warning is shared by Paul B. Stares, director of the Center for Preventive Action at the Council of Foreign Relations, a Washington, USbased research group that maps global conflicts.
“Several organizations have definitely observed an increase in the level of armed conflict in recent years, after decades of historically low levels,” the researcher tells BBC News Brasil.
“Many factors can explain this, from growing economic and social tensions to fragile states to increasing tensions between major powers and even the early effects of climate change,” he says.
However, many of these wars and conflicts do not attract global attention despite high death and destruction rates. Why?
More or less visibility
Many factors influence whether a war gains more or less international visibility, explain the professors interviewed for the report.
Among the most important is the risk that they will spread and attract other countries, including major powers with nuclear powers, as is the case with the two most discussed wars currently: IsraelHamas and RussiaUkraine.
But also other elements such as the proximity of conflicts to major population centers, restrictions or nonrestrictions on the dissemination of journalists and NGOs, the availability of recordings videos, photos and reports distributed on social networks, and the geographical and cultural familiarity of the The public perception of news from crisis countries also plays an important role.
The lack of visibility of wars and conflicts, experts explain, can have a direct impact on their development and the pressure on, for example, ceasefires, humanitarian corridors or the delivery of food and medicine.
According to Paul B. Stares of the Council of Foreign Relations, “high levels of concern or outrage” among the populations of major economic and military powers influence those countries’ willingness to “devote attention and resources” to peace in certain places. of conflicts.
“Conflict parties, including external powers, may also feel that they can act with impunity by not being in the media spotlight, exacerbating the problem (because) the international community has in some ways signaled that it “doesn’t care.” “ “The result is that fighting and atrocities will continue,” says Stares.
Professor Öberg reminds that visibility can be crucial for delivering humanitarian assistance to places where there is war or conflict.
“Military support can often be provided for strategic reasons, even without much people’s attention. But humanitarian support tends to require a mobilization of international opinion,” he tells BBC News Brasil.
But great international visibility and mobilization of public opinion can also have side effects.
“(Visibility) can also make it more difficult to find solutions or reduce tensions, as more extremist actors or subgroups can use or generate media attention to stimulate public opinion, making it more difficult, sometimes almost impossible, to reach agreements or “To avoid an escalation,” says Öberg.
caption,
Journalists seek shelter after hearing sirens warning of a rocket attack from Gaza in southern Israel
Ongoing wars
Last year is considered the deadliest due to conflict since the 1994 Rwandan genocide, with a total of 237,000 dead, according to information in the Journal of Peace Research published in Oslo, Norway.
The sharp increase in 2022 was driven primarily by two particularly violent wars: Russia and Ukraine and the war in Ethiopia against the TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front), with more than 81,500 and 101,000 deaths, respectively, by the end of 2022.
The civil war in Yemen, which according to the UN has claimed more than 300,000 lives since it began in 2014, continues with no end in sight.
According to the United Nations, half of the deaths in this country were directly due to the armed conflict, while the other half were due to hunger and disease caused by the major humanitarian crisis.
“It is still too early to say how 2023 will develop compared to last year. At this point, I tentatively assume that the total number of deaths will be slightly lower than in 2022. This is largely due to the extremely bloody war in Ethiopia, which ended at the end of 2022,” says Therese Petterson, Coordinator of UCDP, told BBC News Brasil.
“However, we will still see higher numbers than in most years of the 21st century, including 2021. With two months left until the end of the year, we must also take into account that we do not know how long the war will last” in Gaza will continue and how many people will be killed there,” she continues.
See below what the most important wars in the world are.
1. Burkina Faso
caption,
Military in Burkina Faso
The war in Burkina Faso is the most violent part of a broader armed conflict in the Sahel, which lies in North Africa and includes regions of 10 countries: Mauritania, Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopia.
Since 2016, Burkina Faso has been the scene of violent clashes between government forces and Islamist insurgent groups such as Ansarul Islam, linked to alQaeda, and the Islamic State in the Sahel (ISS).
Amnesty International estimates that at least 46 locations in Burkina Faso will be under siege by armed groups in July 2023.
According to the Armed Conflict Location Events Database (ACLED), 1,418 civilians were killed in 2022, the deadliest year on record.
2. Somalia
Somalia’s civil war intensified in the first decade of the 2000s with the rise of Al Shabaab, an alQaeda ally, which fought against African Unionbacked government forces.
Al Shabaab, with the support of Western countries, is trying to overthrow the local government and establish its own government based on a radical interpretation of Islamic law.
According to the NGO Human Rights Watch, “the Islamic armed group Al Shabaab carries out indiscriminate and targeted attacks against civilians and recruits children.”
The level of violence increased in 2022, reaching the highest death toll since the early 1990s, according to UCDP.
3.Sudan
caption,
Mother and son walk through Khartoum, the capital of Sudan
According to the UN refugee agency, there is an “unimaginable” humanitarian crisis in Sudan.
Almost six million people have had to leave their homes since the war began in April this year.
The United Nations says the war between Sudan’s military and a paramilitary group trying to take over the government has killed up to 9,000 people in six months and created “one of the worst humanitarian nightmares in modern history.”
According to the UN migration agency, 25 million people, more than half of the population, are in need of humanitarian aid due to the fighting.
4.Myanmar
caption,
A rocket was fired during heavy fighting in Myanmar’s Shan State
A military coup in 2021 and the resulting repression of demonstrators against the new regime were the starting point for the escalation of violence in the Southeast Asian country.
According to independent researchers cited by the UN, more than 13,000 children died in the country and 1.3 million people were displaced from their homes
Several insurgent groups have operated in the country since the 1950s. Many of them are armed and have radicalized their actions to seize power and overthrow the new military regime.
5. RussiaUkraine
In February 2022, Russia launched a fullscale invasion of Ukraine, resulting in a new influx of millions of refugees and tens of thousands of civilian and military deaths.
The United Nations officially confirmed 9,900 civilian deaths but said “the actual number is certainly higher.”
The crisis began in 2014 when Russia annexed the Ukrainian territory of Crimea a move that was not internationally recognized.
Since then, Vladimir Putin’s regime has supported proRussian separatists fighting the Ukrainian military in the Donbass region on the border between the two countries.
In early November 2023, Ukraine reported that nearly 120 areas had been bombed in the last 24 hours, the largest single attack since the beginning of the year. Russia currently controls about 17.5% of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory.
6. IsraelGaza
caption,
Large parts of the Gaza Strip were reduced to rubble by Israeli air strikes
The Palestinian group Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 7, killing more than 1,400 people and taking more than 200 people hostage.
According to the Hamasrun Health Ministry in Gaza, Israel responded with an intensive military offensive that killed more than 10,000 people, 40% of them children.
The UN accuses Israel of committing “war crimes” by “collectively punishing” Gaza residents.
Israel claims it has the right to defend itself and is seeking to destroy the Palestinian group Hamas.
He also claimed that Hamas had committed war crimes by attacking Israel and holding civilians hostage.
7. Nigeria and Syria
According to preliminary data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), various internal conflicts in these two countries are close to reaching the 1,000 combat fatalities mark, classifying them as wars.
“(The two countries) are slightly below this mark in the preliminary data so far and will most likely be included in the final list of wars,” Therese Petterson, coordinator of the program, told BBC News Brasil.
“There are also other (conflicts) that could be classified as wars depending on what happens in the coming months, such as Pakistan.”
Nigeria has been the scene of violence by organized groups since its independence in 1960. The current focus is on fighting between government troops and radical Islamic groups in various states seeking control of areas.
The civil war in Syria, which began in March 2011 with protests against the government of President Bashar alAssad, involves rebel groups and major foreign powers such as Russia, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United States.