The Russian army focused on conquest Mariupol from the early days of the invasion of Ukraine. The area is crucial for territorial unity up to Crimea, a peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014, and for full control of the Sea of Azov, a very strategic exit.
On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that his troops had “successfully” taken control of the city. According to the city government, about 20,000 civilians have died since the invasion. Based on this recent achievement, a new path of conflict can be embarked on.
Mariupol and the end of the war
For Professor Marcos Cordeiro from the International Relations program at Unesp (Sao Paulo State University), the military clashes will continue until Russia has full control of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
“The Russians want to control all the borders of the breakaway provinces to guarantee their integrity and that ‘security belt’ around them, so I believe the capture of Mariupol should not end the war.”
“The capture of the city is also symbolic because of the neoNazi groups operating in the region, a point the Russians have been addressing since the beginning of the invasion,” he adds.
Professor Fernando Broncoli of the International Relations Department of the UFRJ (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro) also agrees that the conflict must go on. “The Russian idea now is to guarantee their permanence and influence in the breakaway regions, and Mariupol plays an important role in this regard.”
“From now on, I believe that we will have a conflict in which both sides are not making much progress, Russia can probably occupy the eastern part of Ukraine more and we are unlikely to have a complete cessation of violence. “
Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Iryna Vereshchuk said last Wednesday (20). humanitarian corridor that was supposed to evacuate civilians from Mariupol on the same day “didn’t work”.
According to her, “the occupiers could not guarantee a proper ceasefire and, through disorganization and negligence, were unable to ensure rapid transport of people to the point where dozens of our buses and ambulances were waiting.”
Since last Saturday (16th) no humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians have been created in Ukraine. In the city of Mariupol, many people said they lacked food, water and other basic needs.
consolidation of territories
Taking new territories involves recognizing military conquests. Despite the annexation, the Crimean peninsula was not recognized by Ukraine and the international community as part of Russia.
“To end the war, the Russians must win something, even if it is recognition of Crimea, lest they leave Ukraine with a picture of defeat,” says Demetrius Pereira, professor of international relations at ESPM.
“Russia must strive for a peace agreement to consolidate the already conquered territories, this concerns Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk and Mariupol,” urges the expert to give way.”
war and peace
According to the hypothesis that Russia’s goal is to control the Donbass region, the war appears to be nearing an end. However, Professor Marcos Cordeiro explains that the Ukrainian army may not be content with losing part of its territory and that, moreover, military actions over the years could put this possible occupation in question.
“History shows that a military victory is one thing, and guaranteeing peace and stability in the region is quite another. The big political question is how to create a new consensus,” he stresses.
For Professor Fernando Broncoli, “the Russians can even try to reach agreements and claim that they are returning to the negotiating tables, but I have some doubts as to how much they can guarantee that these established measures will be respected”.
Regarding the Ukrainian flexibilization of its territorial integrity, the expert points out: “If a country has to give up a territory that it considers its own, that’s an enormous defeat”.
New sanctions
“Such a war is a military operation planned for months, and of course one of the consequences of the war is political retaliation through sanctions,” Cordeiro emphasizes.
The expert believes that the Russian government has already prepared for Western actions in order not to hinder its military advance, as is currently happening with the powerful offensive in eastern Ukraine.
“Sanctions create a very big problem for Russia in the short term, but if the West wanted to exacerbate this problem, they would boycott Russian oil and gas. But they cannot do that because many European countries are dependent on fuel.”
“Russia has been sanctioned since 2014 when it seized Crimea. In those eight years, the country has created mechanisms to ship its gas to China, ultimately protecting itself from a total blockade by Europe.”
Why is the city of Mariupol so important for Russia?