The severance of ties with Russia would not be without consequences for the French economy. As with oil and gas, France has relied for decades on the world’s largest country to supply it with certain raw materials needed by many industries, with aeronautics at the forefront. But this connection risks being compromised by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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As Vladimir Putin’s army continues its offensive, sanctions from the international community are indeed falling on the Moscow regime. On the French side, the “economic war” declared (then relativized) by Economy Minister Bruno Lemerre could jeopardize the supply of certain products by the Eastern giant. For the sake of clarity, Franceinfo lists the critical imports, their importance for the French economy and the alternatives considered by the producers.
gas and oil
Although approximately 46% of gas imports from European Union countries come from Russia, Russian gas consumption in France is much lower – and has been declining for several years. According to a Senate briefing at the time, it was around 25% in 2007 and is now around 17%. In the event of a total disruption of Russia’s three gas pipelines to Europe, France has other partners to turn to, such as Norway or Algeria, which do not have Russia’s production facilities.
In terms of oil, it is mainly Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan that supply black gold to France, according to INSEE. Russian oil accounts for just under 13% of oil imported into France, but for forms of hydrocarbons that remain difficult to find elsewhere.
“This is primarily a dependence on refined products, in particular road diesel, diesel,” Nicolas Mazzucchi, a researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Studies (FRS), told France 2 in detail. A key need for France, therefore, which explains why Russian oil tankers have still been allowed to dock in the country’s ports in recent days.
Coal
Even if France reduces its dependence on fossil fuels, the country continues to love Russian coal. In 2020, about 30% of coal imported into France comes from Russia, according to the Ministry of Ecological Transition. The rest come mainly from Australia (also about 30%) and the United States (about 10%).
This situation is even more pronounced at European level. In 2021, according to Eurostat, Russia supplied the European Union with 56.1 million tonnes of solid fuels, representing 46.7% of EU imports in this area.
Industrial metals (aluminum, titanium, etc.)
A quick look at the trade register between France and Russia shows that in the last three years, products (excluding hydrocarbons) coming from Russia have been mainly iron ore and non-ferrous metals, such as aluminum. Among these metals we find mainly palladium (which is used especially for the production of catalytic converters for cars), titanium (aviation), nickel, cobalt (batteries, wind turbines), tungsten (electronics), platinum or even copper.
“Without these metals, some French industries simply could no longer guarantee their production,” Sarah Guillot, director of innovation and competition at the French Observatory for Economic Conditions (OFCE), told franceinfo. But beware, the French supply is far from exclusive to Russia. For some sectors, such as aeronautics, the situation is quite clear: the titanium used for French aviation is 50% Russian, La Tribune reported (paid article). For automotive or French electronics, it’s a little less clear.
“Dependence on Russian metals is difficult to quantify,” said Sarah Guillot, because customs data do not necessarily specify where the raw materials come from. Officially, France imports 3% of its non-ferrous metals from Russia, but this figure is certainly underestimated. “For example, palladium purchased in the Netherlands or Switzerland may very well have been produced in Russia and changed hands several times.
So far, France has taken restrictive measures against Russia, but has not announced an embargo on imports of raw materials. “However, we note that some companies are taking a stand on public opinion or responding to political pressure and are therefore refusing to trade with Russia,” Sarah Guillaume recalled. Added to this is the cessation of air relations with Russia, which restricts imports of certain metals, such as palladium.
“There is already strong price tensions in these markets,” said the industrial economist. In 2021, the country produces 43% of the palladium produced in the world. Russia’s Rusal Group is the world’s second-largest industrial producer of aluminum. The country is the third largest producer of nickel ore and the second largest producer of refined nickel.
“If Russia decides to limit its sales, world prices will rise sharply, warns Sarah Guillot, and inflation on these primary products will inevitably affect the entire production chain.” It is time for producers to stockpile raw materials, a challenge that smaller companies may find difficult to face.
According to Sarah Guillaume, importers working with Russia (slightly less than 2,000 in France) are “accustomed to facing conflicts, restrictions.” “The great uncertainty that everyone is trying to assess is how long the conflict in Ukraine will last.”