by Andrea Marinelli and Giuseppe Sarcina
Kremlin spokesman Peskov did not rule out the use of nuclear weapons, as Putin had threatened. Bluffing Western analysts, but worrying generals: Tactical nuclear weapons are less destructive but could kill millions
The US government was the first to formulate the most frightening hypothesis: Vladimir Putin could resort to chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. the extreme, traumatic scenario: the first nuclear explosion in the heart of Europe, 76 years after Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Yesterday, Tuesday, March 22, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told CNN that Russia could deploy nuclear deterrents in case of a national security threat. Peskov deliberately sent an ambiguous message. But US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan commented to reporters traveling with President Joe Biden: We are constantly monitoring all circumstances, we take everything very seriously and discussing with allies to determine what response to adopt.
The latest news about the war in Ukraine
Why is there talk of a nuclear threat?
The topic has been the focus for several days. Putin had told the world that on February 27, 2022, three days after he ordered the attack on Ukraine, he had put the arsenal on alert. Many Western political scientists had shrugged their shoulders: He’s bluffing. The generals, on the other hand, began to worry.
How far can Putin go?
Keith Kellogg, former interim national security adviser to Donald Trump and then Vice President Mike Pence’s adviser from 2018 to 2021, tells Corriere: We must not think of nuclear weapons when we think of the end of the world. The Russians in particular have developed tactical bombs with a relatively limited range, say more or less than a kilometer and a half. You can carry these devices on Iskander missiles already in the field, or use jets. The point is that no one knows how far Putin can be pushed. These days we have received confirmation of his absolute ruthlessness. Particularly striking are observations like those of General Kellogg in the countries of NATO’s first flank, beginning with Poland and the Baltic States. For this reason too, according to Polish NATO Ambassador Tomasz Szatkowski, the Atlantic Alliance should review its strategy. Unfortunately, we cannot rule out anything with Putin.
What are tactical nuclear weapons?
The Russians have about 2,000; A hundred Europeans stored in various bases, including the Italian ones at Ghedi and Aviano. These are smaller devices than the classic ones, used in battle when the army does not win with conventional weapons. This option, much less destructive than Hiroshima, could be a way of persuading the adversary to desist in order to deescalate through an escalation typical of Russian military doctrine.
How could they be used?
We don’t know, the chances that they will actually be used are slim, but they are increasing, Ulrich Khn, a nuclear expert at the University of Hamburg, told the New York Times. In Washington, too, experts expect new steps on this front. For example, Putin could throw them in an uninhabited area instead of against the Ukrainian army. However, their less destructive nature could be an illusion, and their use could lead to open nuclear conflict. A simulation by Princeton experts shows what the dynamics could look like: Moscow launches a tactical nuclear warning weapon, Nato responds, and within hours there would be 90 million dead.
What will NATO do?
The nuclear perspective is now shifting from intelligence reports to the table of political confrontation between 30 NATO leaders. It is possible that a trace of the discussion can be found in the final communiqué of the Brussels summit, as requested by a large group of states in addition to Poland itself: United Kingdom, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Denmark, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Norway and maybe others. We will therefore see what the final decision of the Atlantic Alliance will be. Before the conflict broke out, Biden had proposed to Putin that nuclear tactical weapons be included in an overall negotiation. To date, the use of these bombs has not been regulated in any treaty.
Mar 23, 2022 (Modified Mar 23, 2022 | 12:52 p.m.)
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