Hamas’ massive and carefully coordinated attack on Saturday morning took Israeli security forces completely by surprise. A look back at this unprecedented operation, which is designed to last and could lead to the destabilization of the entire region.
The element of surprise, the approach, the ability to persevere. The Hamas attack on Israel is the result of a carefully coordinated and likely sustained operation, with accusations in the West pointing to Iran, where President Ebrahim Raïssi said he supported “the self-defense of the Palestinian nation.”
The offensive was launched at dawn on Saturday in the middle of Shabbat, more than 50 years after the Yom Kippur War, a symbol that cannot be a coincidence.
“It’s a big failure for Israel and a big success for Hamas,” said Kobi Michael, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a think tank in Tel Aviv. “We were unprepared and yet I remain politically correct.”
“This is a major failure by the Israeli intelligence services. It is a failure that could even be described as historic and that can be compared without exaggeration to that of 1973,” confirms David Khalfa, co-director of “North”. Observatory for Africa and the Middle East of the Jean Jaurès Foundation, interviewed by France 24.
The Israeli army estimates that around 1,000 Hamas fighters took part in the “invasion of Israel,” a spokesman said on X (formerly Twitter).
The scale of the attack leaves no doubt: “To launch such an operation, you have to have a lot of preparation, planning and coordination and you have to have clear perspectives or goals,” says Kobi Michael. Because “Hamas knows very well that the price of such an operation will be very high,” the expert adds.
A rocket fire
Back in May 2021, Hamas surprised Israel by sending thousands of rockets, sometimes even hundreds, within minutes to saturate its Iron Dome missile defense system.
At that time, 4,360 rockets were deployed in 15 days, while about 3,000 hit Israel in two days, according to Elliot Chapman, a Middle East expert at British intelligence agency Janes.
If Hamas maintains this pace, “this would be the largest rocket attack on Israel ever,” he told AFP.
“Hamas should still have a significant missile arsenal in reserve and it is likely that it will be able to keep up the fire for quite some time,” said Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). .
Hamas has an arsenal of weapons that is difficult to estimate numerically, but is certainly very rich. It comes from Iran, from Syria before the revolution, from Libya after Gaddafi, but also from other countries in the Middle East, assures a Western weapons expert who requests anonymity and appears on X under the pseudonym Caliber Obscura.
Its small arms come from China or the former Soviet bloc, with “significant quantities stolen or confiscated in combat with the Israeli army,” he explains, also mentioning drones and grenade launchers.
However, most of Hamas’ rockets are locally manufactured, “unguided rocket systems (…) that do not require advanced technology” and are not very precise, explains Elliot Chapman.
The Palestinian movement could also emulate the Lebanese Hezbollah, which hides its forces until a major operation begins, observes Fabian Hinz. “We could see entirely new capabilities emerge in the event of a ground invasion of Gaza by Israel.”
The shadow of the Iranian godfather
“It is too early to say” whether Iran is “directly” involved in this offensive, and the United States currently has “no evidence” to that effect, the White House said, but added that it had “none Doubt” about this fact that Hamas was “financed, equipped and armed” by the Islamic Republic, among others.
Tehran, in turn, said it “supports the legitimate defense of the Palestinian nation,” and a military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, welcomed Hamas’s “proud” offensive.
Also read: Hamas-Israel: a threat to regional stability and Israeli-Saudi rapprochement?
“Tehran has been supporting Palestinian groups for several years by providing them political, financial and military assistance, in particular by helping them increase the range of their missiles and develop a program to produce drones,” recalls Siavosh Gazi, the French Correspondent. 24 in Tehran.
02:30
For Kobi Michael, “Hamas would not have dared to launch such an operation without having a serious insurance policy, and they get it from Hezbollah and Iran.”
“In recent months there have been a series of meetings in Beirut and Tehran bringing together the leaders of Islamic Jihad, Hamas and Hezbollah. “Obviously a long-term project has been developed and is taking shape today,” estimates David Rigoulet-Roze, Middle East specialist at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (Iris), on France 24.
The risk of a regional “explosion”
Tel Aviv said it had feared an attack on several fronts for months. Fears have increased since Hezbollah announced that it had fired “artillery shells and guided missiles” at the Lebanon-Israel border.
“There is a precarious calm at the border this morning, where UNIFIL peacekeepers and the Lebanese army are largely mobilized to prevent an escalation,” Serge Berberi, France 24 correspondent in Beirut, said on Monday.
02:42
A ground attack by the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip would promise deadly urban combat. “There are good reasons to believe that the Israelis have been trying to avoid this for years,” says Fabian Hinz, while Hamas “had time to prepare for such a scenario.”
Other groups may also be tempted to intervene against Israel. There is a risk of greater involvement from Hezbollah, which “stated that it was working in full coordination with the Palestinian fighters,” emphasizes Elliot Chapman.
He said the group said: “It would intervene if Israel launched an attack on the Gaza Strip, which seems likely at this point.”
“The question now is how to prevent this all from degenerating into a regional conflict,” said political scientist Ofer Bronchtein, who is responsible for Israeli-Palestinian rapprochement, on France 24. “We have to do everything we can to prevent an explosion.”
With AFP