It was a remarkable gesture by Joe Biden. The US President asked his Moldovan counterpart Maia Sandu to attend a meeting in Warsaw on February with representatives of the nine NATO member countries in central and southeastern Europe that are joining the alliance.
During a speech, Biden addressed Sandu directly: “I am proud to be with you and the freedomloving Moldovan people,” he said, drawing applause from those in attendance.
But Biden’s action underscores a grave situation. Wedged between Ukraine and northwestern Romania, Moldova has long feared it could become the next victim of Russian aggression, with military threats from Moscow taking on an increasingly belligerent tone.
Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin reversed a 2012 decree in which the Kremlin guaranteed Moldova’s sovereignty. Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Russia was trying to oust Sandu’s proEuropean leadership. Moscow responded on February 23, saying it was Ukraine planning military intervention in Moldova.
What’s all this noise about? And why is the tiny Republic of Moldova, with a population of just 3.5 million, moving ever closer to the center of the war?
US President Joe Biden speaks in Warsaw on February 21. Photo: Michal Dyjuk/AP/picture alliance
The strategic importance of Transnistria
Moldova was the first country after the collapse of the Soviet Union where Russia supported the separatists, sparking a bloody war in 1992 that lasted several months. The result was a frozen conflict in which proMoscow troops ruled Transnistria, a narrow strip of land in eastern Moldova that has been home to large numbers of Russian speakers for over three decades. Around 2,000 Russian soldiers are still stationed there, although Moscow ensured the withdrawal of its troops from the region in 1999. Also near the Transnistrian village of Cobasna is Europe’s largest arms depot with around 20,000 tons of ammunition and military equipment.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, Transnistria has become strategically more important than ever. Not only could Russia open a western front to attack Ukraine from there, but it could also fuel internal chaos in Moldova and trigger a crisis on NATO’s southeastern outer border.
Blocked smuggling routes
Separatist forces in Transnistria would probably have an interest in such a scenario. In the past few decades, they financed themselves with massive smuggling operations, which also penetrated Ukrainian territory. Since the start of the war, however, Ukraine has closed its border with Transnistria, which is now facing economic collapse.
After the war broke out, Sandu and his proEuropean government initially adopted a cautious stance of solidarity with Ukraine in order to avoid a confrontation with Moscow.
But since the European autumn, the European Union (EU) candidate country has been seeking closer ties with the West after Moscow continued to cut off gas supplies and backed opposition parties in their attempts to destabilize the country’s internal political situation. This led Sandu to conclude that all attempts at reconciliation with Moscow would be in vain.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu is proEuropeanPhoto: Aurel Obreja/AP Photo/Picture Alliance
End of neutrality?
Moldova then began sourcing its energy supplies from countries other than Russia at an accelerated pace.
In addition, the country began to openly discuss whether and how the status of neutrality enshrined in the constitution should and can be changed. A rearmament of the country’s almost defenseless armed forces is also under discussion a few weeks ago Germany delivered the first armored vehicles of the Piranha type to Moldova.
At present, the country could hardly defend itself against the separatists in Transnistria, who, in addition to large stocks of ammunition, probably have dozens of battle tanks and other heavy military equipment. Ukraine has therefore offered military assistance if Moscow and the separatists provoke a conflict. But any suggestion that Ukraine is planning military intervention in Moldova is absurd and at best a pretext for the Kremlin to justify its belligerence. Ukraine can certainly do without using its military resources for a second front.
One thing Putin has achieved in the region, however, is to force Moldova to break decisively out of Moscow’s stranglehold after three decades of ambivalence.
The move garnered support beyond symbolic gestures like Biden’s in Warsaw: Romania, colloquially known as Moldova’s “big brother,” already shares language, culture and a long common history with its tiny neighbor, and has offered growing support for achieving economic independence from Russia.
A year of war in Ukraine: a timeline in pictures
On the morning of February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Thousands of soldiers and civilians were killed in a year of fighting. Recall the most striking facts in this timeline.
Photo: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images
A dark day for millions
On the morning of February 24, 2022, Ukrainians were woken up by explosions like this one in the capital, Kiev. Russia had launched a fullscale invasion that was the largest attack by one country against another since World War II. Ukraine immediately declared martial law. Civilian structures were attacked and soon the first deaths were reported.
Photo: Office of the President of Ukraine/Zuma/imago images
Russian President Vladimir Putin still insists that this is a “military special operation” and that the aim is to take over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine. Residents of Mariupol hid in basements for weeks. Many died under the rubble. A Russian airstrike in March on a theater in the city, where hundreds had taken refuge, drew condemnation from human rights groups.
Photo: Nikolai Trishin/TASS/dpa/Picture Alliance
The war in Ukraine forced an emigration not seen in Europe since World War II. According to UNHCR, the United Nations refugee agency, more than eight million people have fled the country. Poland alone hosted 1.5 million people, more than any other EU country. Millions of people, mainly from eastern and southern Ukraine, had to flee.
Photo: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP
After a few weeks, the Ukrainian army succeeded in driving out Russian troops from areas in the north and northeast of the country. Russia’s plan to besiege Kiev failed. After the liberation of the regions, the scale of the atrocities became clear. Images of tortured and murdered civilians in Bucha near Kiev went around the world. Authorities reported 461 deaths.
Photo: Carol Guzy/ZUMA PRESS/dpa/Picture Alliance
Devastation and death in Kramatorsk
The number of civilian casualties in Donbass has increased rapidly. Authorities urged civilians to retreat to safer areas, but Russian missiles also hit people trying to escape in Kramatorsk. More than 61 were killed and 120 injured at the city’s train station in April as thousands waited to flee to safety.
Photo Credit: Seth Sidney Berry/ZUMA Press Wire/Picture Alliance
Search for safety underground
During Russian air raids, millions of Ukrainians took refuge in some form of shelter. For people close to the front within artillery range, basements became second homes. Residents of large cities also sought protection from the rockets. In Kiev (pictured) and Kharkiv metro stations are safe places.
Photo: Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP/Getty Images
High nuclear risk in Zaporizhia
In the first weeks after the invasion, Russia occupied a large area of southern and eastern Ukraine, including the area around Kiev. Fighting spilled over into facilities at the Zaporizhia nuclear complex in the southeast, which has since been under Russian control. The International Atomic Energy Agency sent experts to the facility and required a safe zone around the facility.
Photo: ST/AFP/Getty Images
Desperate resistance in Mariupol
The Russian army besieged Mariupol for three months, preventing the shipment of ammunition and other supplies. The Azovstal steelworks complex was the last Ukrainian fortress in the city and housed thousands of soldiers and civilians. After a protracted attack, thousands of Russian soldiers took control of the facility in May 2022 and captured over 2,000 people.
Photo: Dmytro “Orest” Kozatskyi/AFP
A symbol of resistance
Russia captured Snake Island in the Black Sea on the first day of the war. A dialogue between the Ukrainian and Russian military during which the Ukrainians refused to surrender has gone viral. In April, the Ukrainians claimed to have sunk the Russian warship Moskva, one of two ships involved in the attack on the island. In June, Ukraine said it had driven the Russians off the island.
Photo: Border Guard Service of Ukraine/AFP
Uncertain death toll
The exact number of war dead remains uncertain. According to the UN, at least 7,200 civilians were killed and another 12,000 injured but the actual number could be far higher. The exact number of fallen Ukrainian soldiers is also uncertain. In December, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak put the number at up to 13,000. Unbiased statistics are not available.
Photo: Raphael Lafargue/abaca/Picture Alliance
Turning point for Ukraine
Western arms shipments to Ukraine have been a hot topic since the war began, but they’ve been slow to reach Kiev. A crucial help was the USmade Himars rocket launchers. They allowed the Ukrainian military to cut off supplies of ammunition to Russian artillery and also probably contributed to Ukraine’s successful counteroffensives.
Photo Credit: James Lefty Larimer/US Army/Zuma Wire/IMAGO
Relief with every release
In early September, the Ukrainian military launched a successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv, in the northeast of the country. The surprised Russians quickly retreated, leaving behind equipment, ammunition and even evidence of suspected war crimes. The Ukrainian military also managed to liberate Kherson in the south, and its residents celebrated the arrival of Ukrainian soldiers.
Photo: Bulent Kilic/AFP/Getty Images
Explosion on the Crimean Bridge
In early October, there was a massive explosion on the bridge that Russia had built across the Kerch Strait, which connects to Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula Moscow has occupied since 2014. The bridge was partially destroyed. Russia says a truck loaded with explosives from Ukraine caused the damage, but authorities in Kiev have not claimed responsibility for the attack.
Photo: AFP/Getty Images
Massive attacks on energy infrastructure
A few days after the Crimean bridge blew up, Russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Power outages occurred between Lviv and Kharkiv. Since then, these attacks have become routine. Due to massive damage to power plants and other civilian infrastructure, people in Ukraine face power cuts and water shortages almost every day.
Photo: Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty Images
Daily video messages from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in which he reports on the situation in the country and the ongoing war, are viewed by millions of people. Zelensky not only managed to unite the people of his country, but also won the support of the West. Under his leadership, European integration is well advanced and Ukraine is on the road to EU membership.
Photo: Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP
Waiting for Leopard 2 tanks
Ukraine’s defense depends heavily on foreign aid. A USled group of countries offered a billiondollar package in humanitarian, financial and military aid. The use of heavy artillery was hotly debated in the West, largely due to concerns about Russia’s response. But Ukraine will eventually receive Western tanks, mostly Germanmade Leopard 2s.
Photo: Ina Fassbender/AFP/Getty Images
Bloody fighting has been raging in Bakhmut in the Donetsk region for months. Since Ukrainian troops lost control of the village of Soledar in early 2023, defending the town has become even more difficult. In January, the German secret service reported threedigit daily losses on the Ukrainian side. But the death toll in Russia is said to be even higher.
Photo: LIBKOS/AP/dpa/Picture Alliance