Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan was forced out of office after three years and seven months in parliament in the early hours of Sunday morning by a parliamentary no-confidence vote.
A new government will be formed, most likely under opposition leader Shahbaz Sharif, after parliament reconvenes on Monday to elect a new prime minister.
The country of more than 220 million people lies between Afghanistan to the west, China to the north-east and India to the east, making it of crucial strategic importance.
Since he came to power in 2018, Khan’s rhetoric has turned anti-American, and he has expressed a desire to move closer to China and, more recently, Russia — Khan held talks with President Vladimir Putin on February 24, the day the invasion of Ukraine began.
Pakistan’s powerful military has traditionally controlled foreign and defense policy, but Khan’s harsh public rhetoric has impacted a number of important relationships.
Afghanistan
Ties between Pakistan’s military intelligence service and the Islamist Taliban have loosened in recent years.
Now that the Taliban are back in power – amid an economic and humanitarian crisis due to lack of funds and international isolation – Qatar is arguably the country’s most important foreign partner, a position once held by Pakistan.
Tensions have risen between the Taliban and the Pakistani military, which has lost several soldiers in attacks near their shared border. Pakistan wants the Taliban to do more to crack down on extremist groups and fears they will spread violence in Pakistan. This has already started.
Khan had been less critical of the Taliban on human rights issues than most foreign leaders.
China
Khan has consistently emphasized China’s positive role in Pakistan and the world at large.
The $60 billion (£46 billion) Sino-Pakistani Economic Corridor linking the neighbors was conceived and launched among Pakistan’s two mainstream political parties, both of whom are likely to share power in the new government .
Potential successor Sharif, the younger brother of three-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, struck direct deals with China as chief minister of eastern Punjab province, and his reputation for embarking on major infrastructure projects while avoiding political tribunes may actually do so be music to Beijing’s ears.
India
The nuclear-armed neighbors have fought three wars since independence in 1947, two of them over disputed Muslim-majority Kashmir.
Tensions along Kashmir’s de facto border are at their lowest since 2021 thanks to a ceasefire. But there have been no formal diplomatic talks in years because of deep suspicions on a range of issues, including Khan’s outspoken criticism of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi its handling of attacks on Muslim minorities in India.
Karan Thapar, an Indian political commentator who has followed India-Pakistan relations closely, said the Pakistani military could put pressure on the new government in Islamabad to build on the successful ceasefire in Kashmir.
Pakistan’s powerful army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, recently said his country is ready to move forward in Kashmir if India agrees.
The Sharif dynasty has spearheaded several peaceful overtures to India over the years.
US
US-based South Asia experts have said the political crisis in Pakistan is unlikely to be a priority for President Joe Biden, who is grappling with the war in Ukraine, unless it leads to mass unrest or rising tensions with India .
“We have so many other fish to fry,” said Robin Raphel, a former deputy secretary of state for South Asia who is a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
With Pakistan’s military maintaining behind-the-scenes control of foreign and security policy, the change in government was not a major concern, according to some analysts.
“Since it is the military that decides the policies that the US really cares about, ie Afghanistan, India and nuclear weapons, internal political developments in Pakistan are largely irrelevant to the US,” said Curtis, then US President Donald was Trump’s executive director of the National Security Council for South Asia.
She added that Khan’s visit to Moscow had been a “disaster” in terms of US relations and that a new government in Islamabad could at least help improve relations.
Khan has blamed the US for the current political crisis and said Washington wants him removed over the recent trip to Moscow. Washington denies any role.