Russian Su-35 jets launch missiles during the Aviadarts competition, as part of the 2021 International Army Games, at the Dubrovichi test site near Ryazan, Russia, August 27, 2021. REUTERS / Maxim Shemetov / File photo
WASHINGTON, March 1 – Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US intelligence predicted a fierce attack from Moscow that would quickly mobilize a huge Russian air force gathered by its military to dominate Ukraine’s skies.
But the first six days confused those expectations and instead saw that Moscow was acting much more delicately with its air force, to the point that US officials could not explain exactly what was driving Russia’s apparent reluctance to take risks.
“They are not necessarily willing to take big risks with their own planes and their own pilots,” said a senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Strongly surpassed by the Russian military in raw numbers and firepower, Ukraine’s own air force is still flying and its air defenses are still considered viable, a fact that confuses military experts.
After the start of the war on February 24, analysts expected the Russian military to try to destroy Ukraine’s air force and air defenses immediately.
This would be “the logical and long-awaited next step, as seen in almost every military conflict since 1938,” the RUSI think tank in London wrote in an article entitled “The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force.”
Instead, Ukrainian Air Force fighters are still conducting defensive flights for air and ground attacks. Russia is still flying through disputed airspace.
Ukrainian ground-to-air missiles are capable of threatening Russian planes and posing a risk to Russian pilots trying to support ground forces.
“There are many things they do that are confusing,” said Rob Lee, a Russian military specialist at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
He believed that the beginning of the war would be “maximum use of force.”
“Because every day goes on, there’s a price and the risk increases. And they don’t do that, and it’s just really hard to explain for some realistic reason.”
Confusion over how Russia has used its air force comes as President Joe Biden’s administration rejects Kyiv’s calls for a no-fly zone that could draw the United States directly into conflict with Russia, whose plans for its air force are unclear.
Military experts see evidence of a lack of coordination between the Russian Air Force and ground forces, with many Russian convoys of troops being sent out of range of their own air defense cover.
This makes Russian troops vulnerable to attack by Ukrainian forces, including those recently equipped with Turkish drones and American and British anti-tank missiles.
David Deptula, a retired three-star U.S. Air Force general who once commanded a no-fly zone over northern Iraq, said he was surprised Russia had not worked harder to establish air supremacy from the start. .
“The Russians find that coordinating operations with several domains is not easy,” Deptula told Reuters. “And that they’re not as good as they thought they were.”
While the Russians are performing less well, the Ukrainian army has exceeded expectations so far.
Ukraine’s experience over the past eight years of fighting Russian-backed separatist forces in the east has been dominated by World War I-style static trench warfare.
In contrast, Russian forces gained combat experience in Syria, where they intervened on the side of President Bashar al-Assad and demonstrated a certain ability to synchronize ground maneuvers with air and drones.
Ukraine’s ability to continue flying air force planes is a visible demonstration of the country’s resilience to attack and has boosted the morale of both its own military and the people of Ukraine, experts say.
This also led to the mythologizing of the Ukrainian Air Force, including a story about a Ukrainian jet fighter that allegedly shot down six Russian planes, called online as the “Ghost of Kyiv”.
A fact-finding investigation by Reuters has revealed how a clip from the Digital Combat Simulator video game was hidden online to claim that it was a real Ukrainian fighter jet shooting down a Russian plane.
Biden drew a standing ovation in support of Ukrainians in a speech on the state of the union on Tuesday, praising their determination and mocking Putin for believing he could simply “roll into Ukraine” without resistance. Read more
“Instead, he met a wall of power he had never imagined. He met with the Ukrainian people,” Biden said.
The United States estimates that Russia used just over 75 aircraft in its invasion of Ukraine, a senior US official said.
Prior to the invasion, officials estimated that Russia had potentially prepared hundreds of thousands of aircraft in its air force for a mission in Ukraine. However, a senior US official on Tuesday declined to estimate how many Russian warplanes, including attack helicopters, may still be available outside Ukraine.
Both sides are suffering losses.
“We have indications that they have lost some (planes), but also the Ukrainians,” the official said.
“Airspace is being actively challenged every day.”
Report by Phil Stewart and Idris Ali; Edited by Mary Millikon, Lincoln Fest and Sandra Mahler
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